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The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

bloomberg.com

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Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#701

Post by nine_k »

Balgair wrote: post #207

I like to hang out on fertility twitter. It's a strange place. Since the fertility problem is worldwide, you get a lot of ideologies mixing about. There's hardcore CCP folks, free market Mormons, radical Imams, universalist preachers, the whole lot of them. They're all trying to share ideas and jumping on the latest research findings from reputable and crackpot sources. They're all looking for the recipe to get peopl…

I have to politely disagree. The places that have highest fertility rates are places where contraception is hard to obtain and may be outright banned, and where womens' rights are severely restricted. That is, closer to nature, not far from other mammals. Such societies also usually have high levels of infant mortality, making bonds between parents and infants weaker.

This is not a society most of us want to return to.

I'm afraid that the only realistic way is "elvification" of sorts: make adults live, stay healthy, and remain productive for much longer to eventually compensate for very low birth rates, and the very high cost (not just monetary) of raising a child.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#702

Post by kgwxd »

Night_Thastus wrote: post #336

This is happening everywhere , including nations with great social systems/healthcare/parental leave/etc. And it happens even when nations try throwing money at the problem. While economic concerns may be worsening the issue - I don't think they're the root cause as many would like to say. I think the root cause is that we have outsmarted our biology. Once you give people education on the risks of sex and pregnancy,…

Everyone is talking about it like a problem that need correcting. Why? Less people seems like it could be better for everyone and everything already here, assuming "great social systems" are in place.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#703

Post by program_whiz »

miroljub wrote: post #491
Balgair wrote: post #207

I like to hang out on fertility twitter. It's a strange place. Since the fertility problem is worldwide, you get a lot of ideologies mixing about. There's hardcore CCP folks, free market Mormons, radical Imams, universalist preachers, the whole lot of them. They're all trying to share ideas and jumping on the latest research findings from reputable and crackpot sources. They're all looking for the recipe to get peopl…

The main issue is that you don't need children anymore. Previously, your children were: - your workforce - your retirement plan - your elderly care plan - your security - your private army Now, when all these things don't apply anymore, or you have better replacements, you simply don't need children. They are just an unnecessary cost. You can live a happier and better life without that with children. Maybe when child…

Just want to chime in, for anyone else reading this: I can say I used to think this way. Having kids is 100% the best thing, would never trade them for anything, including all of the above and a 5x raise and early retirement. Absolutely nothing about single life is even close to the value you feel having a child. Of course this is "anecdata" but so is "the single life is so awesome" given most of the stats about mental health and lonliness.

Just letting that one person out there who like me who's wondering "is this all there is?". once you get bored of mindless work/consumption cycle, go ahead and get to the good part!

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#704

Post by Animats »

Robots may fill the gap. Really. It seems silly now, but give it twenty years. The developed world may end up with a modest human population and a large robotic population. Asimov explored that idea in SF decades ago.

The humans may still think they're in charge. They won't be.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#705

Post by clavicular999 »

JPKab wrote: post #341
qweiopqweiop wrote: post #300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Great point. I'd argue though, is it a utopia if we're not as happy?

We are unhappy BECAUSE it's a utopia, and our brains evolved in a landscape that was ALWAYS trying to kill us. Like an immune system in an overly clean environment starts attacking inert things and creates allergies, our minds have created threats and focused on "relative" scarcity over actual scarcity. Instead of "How am I going to get enough calories to survive this week?" it's "Why does that guy get to be in a pri…

[dead]

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#706

Post by myko »

estearum wrote: post #524
echelon wrote: post #510

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not that being a parent is harder - it's actually easier (excluding the post-WWII American boom years which were a fluke). It's that the floor of being single has risen to stratospheric highs. Being single used to be: boring (no internet, tv, constant dopamine drip. Having kids was an escape from mundane boredom.) Being single used to be: lonely (now we have dating and hookup apps, online games, tons of in-perso…

> It's not that being a parent is harder - it's actually easier (excluding the post-WWII American boom years which were a fluke). Why would it be easier today? You used to just open your door and go let your kids run around and hope they're back before dinner. Absolutely nothing like today's ultracompetitive, ultra-regimented world.

> You used to just open your door and go let your kids run around and hope they're back before dinner.

Still works this way in my suburban Ohio world

> today's ultracompetitive, ultra-regimented world.

though yes I see this in the childhood sport arena, club teams, traveling teams, etc.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#707

Post by porridgeraisin »

steveBK123 wrote: post #507
daymanstep wrote: post #472

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you saying that Israelis are more likely to have kids mainly because Israeli society is more tolerant of kids? You seem to be supposing a model where most people naturally want kids, but are just discouraged from having kids because...other people might give them a stink eye if their kids run around in a mall. In my model, people choose to have kids because it's an important life goal for them, and this decision…

I think in atomic families in the US, more and more people are brought up without really interacting with children much once they are a teen and stop being a child themselves. What used to be normal teen rights of passage like hanging out with your younger extended family, holding a baby, babysitting the neighbors kids, being a summer camp counselor, helping with youth sports, etc.. are less common. Teens are busy cr…

Yes, this is closer to my take:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44098431

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#708

Post by sizzle »

socalgal2 wrote: post #668
Balgair wrote: post #207

I like to hang out on fertility twitter. It's a strange place. Since the fertility problem is worldwide, you get a lot of ideologies mixing about. There's hardcore CCP folks, free market Mormons, radical Imams, universalist preachers, the whole lot of them. They're all trying to share ideas and jumping on the latest research findings from reputable and crackpot sources. They're all looking for the recipe to get peopl…

My take is that modern culture just doesn't want kids. It doesn't matter how cheap you make having a family, for many it's just not remotely the same culture as it was 50-70 years ago. Then, for most, it was, at 20-ish, find a partner ASAP and have a family. That was "the culture". Today it's "have a great career, travel, party, netflix, game, ... and maybe someday think about kids" There's other stats like in the US…

It’s literally the only purpose of life to pass on our genetics to our offsprings in a Darwinian sense.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#709

Post by sizzle »

Balgair wrote: post #207

I like to hang out on fertility twitter. It's a strange place. Since the fertility problem is worldwide, you get a lot of ideologies mixing about. There's hardcore CCP folks, free market Mormons, radical Imams, universalist preachers, the whole lot of them. They're all trying to share ideas and jumping on the latest research findings from reputable and crackpot sources. They're all looking for the recipe to get peopl…

It’s literally the only purpose of life to pass on our genetics to our offsprings in a Darwinian sense.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#710

Post by bpt3 »

mountainb wrote: post #600
bpt3 wrote: post #428

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh good grief, parents with SUVs aren't that complex, and they are often purchased to carry around their kids' friends as well (negating your first point). People do what works for them within their budget, which often is a larger vehicle when you have kids. If you want to translate that as "speed and comfort is of the essence", then fine. I could say the same about someone with no kids who prefers living in a highly…

I own two SUVs because they are useful. Can't we be critical of ourselves and some of the consequences of our own choices?

Yes, we can be critical of ourselves. I guess your description of SUV-drivers looking at pedestrians with disdain and buying a car with room for more passengers to intentionally exclude potential passengers is an accurate reflection of your own opinion?

As I said, I don't believe those are very widely held and they certainly don't reflect my thoughts, so my criticisms would be quite different.

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