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De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

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Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#701

Post by lpcvoid »

Saline9515 wrote: post #687
lpcvoid wrote: post #463

Earlier quoted context omitted.

German here: I'd go to war (and likely will, with how it's looking currently) for any country that shares our values and is an ally or friend, that's being attacked by an evil force such as russia. And that of course includes my french brothers to the west.

You should define what "our values" is when making such bold statements.

Freedom of speech, democratically elected representatives, protection of minorities, religious freedom, to name a few.

I can already hear people storming out of the woods, ready to write how the EU itself is undemocratic, or how free speech isn't real in western European countries. I disagree with you.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#703

Post by krupan »

eigenspace wrote: post #577
krupan wrote: post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People downvote this but Bitcoin has some very nice properties: - easy to verify/impossible to forge (as opposed to gold and paper currency) - fixed supply (as opposed to paper currency, oil, and even gold) - easy to transfer from one party to another (as opposed to gold, oil, and physical cash)

Just because frivilous money printing is bad does not mean that a fixed supply is good. A fixed supply is a terrible property to have in a money system. It's very beneficial to have a money supply that can grow or shrink according to demand.

This is a tough argument to engage with. Define "frivolous" when it comes to money printing. Define beneficial, and define beneficial to whom. Talk about who decides how much money to print. And you said it's beneficial to have the supply grow or shrink. We know "printing more" is how you grow the supply, but how do you shrink the supply?

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#704

Post by JumpCrisscross »

krupan wrote: post #452
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #327

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If it can't be _your_ currency let it at least be a currency no other nation controls At that point just hoard resources. Holding a bunch of Bitcoin in a crisis is useless for a country if no other country will buy them off you in exchange for tradeable hard currency.

"just hoard resources" really has nothing to do with a world currency to replace the dollar, which is what we are talking about here. In a crisis you can't eat dollars, gold, oil, or bitcoin, so yeah, you kinda have a point, but an orthogonal one.

> In a crisis you can't eat dollars, gold, oil, or bitcoin

But you can easily trade dollars for stuff Americans will sell you. That's the advantage of a national backer. In a crisis, they'll welcome the influx of capital in exchange for goods and services. Precisely what you need it you want to spend it.

This is why sanctions fuck up reserve calculations. If, in a crisis, America will sanction you, you might as well have held gold or Bitcoin.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#705

Post by ppqqrr »

Workaccount2 wrote: post #534
KaiserPro wrote: post #399

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> probably want to model the US Dollar after the Renminbi. I don't see that. Given trump's history, he thinks that going back to tariffs will allow massive tax cuts. As he trades in real estate, tariffs are inconsequential for him

Trump is a populist. He supports tariffs for the exact same reason Bernie Sanders does. There is a reason so many bernie bros jumped to camp Trump in 2016 when (globalist) Hillary won the nomination. There is no secret or conspiracy going on here. Trump is a populist president and is unsurprisingly doing populist things, elected because of his populist stances. At this point you have to have stabbed your eyes out and…

yeah, he’s a real populist with the <15% that wants the federal boot on everyone else’s neck. i think there’s a name for that specific type of “populism”.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#706

Post by JumpCrisscross »

RealityVoid wrote: post #402
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #390

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> No reason it can't be some crypto that is not backed by any nation There is a great reason: a state-backed currency should always be accepted by that state. If the world is in crisis, you may wind up stuck with your Bitcoins.

I thought we were talking about World reserve currency here i.e. international trade. I agree that you need the currency to be accepted by the state for good local trade support. But that was not the point.

> thought we were talking about World reserve currency here i.e. international trade

Yes. If you're a random country, you can use your dollars to buy shit from America. Countries hold reserves for basically two direct reasons: to intervene in FX markes and protect their imports. The latter is the main one. At the end of the day, your ideal reserve composition matches your import portfolio because you want currency you can send to the people who are selling you shit.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#707

Post by omgJustTest »

tigerlily wrote: post #332
omgJustTest wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Currencies fundamentally relate to some trust. I believe that the near-term de-dollarization isn't as much trust erosion as it is a tool to provide monetary penalty for behaving in unpredictable ways. However it will provide incentive to move away from the dollar in the long-term, ie as Fareed Zakaria says "recent actions are accelerating the world to the multipolar future".

Multipolar? So kind of like Europe before the beginning of World War 1, with major powers all competing with each other?

This is a complicated and evolving subject that probably isn't well described in a comment, wiki has a good article https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polarity_(international_relati...

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#708

Post by JumpCrisscross »

engineer_22 wrote: post #405
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #390

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> No reason it can't be some crypto that is not backed by any nation There is a great reason: a state-backed currency should always be accepted by that state. If the world is in crisis, you may wind up stuck with your Bitcoins.

Is it a conspiracy theory that Bitcoin was developed by the US military as a hedge against US dollar hyperinflation? I've heard that argument made somewhere but maybe it was just a rumor to try to legitimize Bitcoin?

> Is it a conspiracy theory that Bitcoin was developed by the US military as a hedge against US dollar hyperinflation?

Yes, none of that makes an iota of sense. If a military wants to take inflation into its own hands, it has far-better options. From hoarding to, you know, taking shit.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#709

Post by JumpCrisscross »

diordiderot wrote: post #681
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> US century is already over Maybe, maybe not. We're currently the Soviet Union in the 1970s. Gerontocratic. Sclerotic. Hyped up on a new mythology. And economically uncompetitive on several levels, with the future (then computers, now elecrification) sweeping past us to our applause. Unlike the Soviets, however, we can see it happening and debate it. If '26 and '28 change course, the damage will still be done. But t…

> raising a Gestapo If they were really Gestapo you wouldn't see people tailgate them in a Subaru or scream in their faces

> If they were really Gestapo you wouldn't see people tailgate them in a Subaru or scream in their faces

Fine. Brown shirts [1].

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sturmabteilung

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#710

Post by nothrabannosir »

terminalshort wrote: post #567
pegasus wrote: post #474

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't describe integrating further to the point of becoming more like the US as "unstable". And that's the most likely outcome, which should make the EU more trustworthy as a partner, not less. EDIT: by "like the US" I mean federalization. This video explains it well: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HnarX3HPruA

I would argue that not only is it not the most likely outcome, but that it's practically impossible. When the colonies united they all spoke the same language and shared the same culture as the descendants of recent British colonists. Furthermore, they had just fought and won a war of independence together. The first presidential election was unanimous with every single electoral vote backing George Washington. Do yo…

Just re taxes: why would anything need to change on that front in the event of federalization of the EU? There already is a union, it already has money, money already flows from richer countries to poorer countries—what would federalization change?
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