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Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

martinalderson.com

701–710 of 744 posts

Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

#701

FTA > I've had Claude Code write an entire unit/integration test suite in a few hours (300+ tests) for a fairly complex internal tool. This would take me, or many developers I know and respect, days to write by hand. I have no problem believing that Claude generated 300 passing tests. I have a very hard time believing those tests were all well thought out, consise, actually testing the desired behavior while communic…

Experience from 2 days ago:

I had CC write a bunch of tests to make sure some refactoring didn't break anything, and then I ran the app and it crashed out of the gate. Why? Because despite the verbosity of the tests it turns out that it had mocked the most import parts to test, so the _actual_ connections weren't being tested, and while CC was happy to claim victory with all tests green, the app was broken.

Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

#702
This is a bit like saying RoR or Django dropped the cost of building web apps by 90% because you could write a blog app with 5 lines of code (IIRC early Rails claim).

So yes, the cost of certain tasks may drop by 90% (though I think that's a high number still), certainly the cost of developing software overall has not dropped by 90%.

I might be able to whip up a script in 30 seconds instead of 30 minutes, but I still have to think of whether I need the script, what exactly it should do, what am I trying to build and how and why, how does it fit with all the requirements, etc. That part isn't being reduced by 90%.

Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

#703
post #507

> Engineers need to really lean in to the change in my opinion. I tried leaning in. I really tried. I'm not a web developer or game developer (more robotics, embedded systems). I tried vibe coding web apps and games. They were pretty boring. I got frustrated that I couldn't change little things. I remember getting frustrated that my game character kept getting stuck on imaginary walls and kept asking Cursor to fix it…

These posts like the one OP made is why I'm losing my mind. Like, is there truly an agentic way to go 10x or is there some catch? At this point while I'm not thrilled about the idea of just "vibe coding" all the time, I'm fine with facing reality. But I keep having the same experience as you, or rather leaning more on that supercharged Google/SO replacement or just a "can you quickly make this boring func here that d…

  > for bash scripts etc
Everyone keeps telling me that it's good for bash scripts but I've never had real success.

Here's an example from today. I wanted to write a small script to grab my Google scholar citations and I'm terrible with web so I ask the best way to parse the curl output. First off, it suggests I use a python package (seriously? For one line of code? No thanks!) but then it gets the wrong grep. So I pull up the page source, copy paste some to it, and try to parse it myself. I already have a better grep command and for the second time it's telling me to use pearl regex (why does it love -P as much as it loves delve?). Then I'm pasting in my new command showing it my output asking for the awk and sed parts while googling the awk I always forget. It messes up the sed parts while googling, so I fix it, which means editing the awk part slightly but I already had the SO post open that I needed anyways. So I saved maybe one minutes total?

Then I give it a skeleton of a script file adding the variables I wanted and fully expected it to be a simple cleanup. No. It's definitely below average, I mean I've never seen an LLM produce bash functions without being explicitly told (not that the same isn't also true for the average person). But hey, it saved me the while loop for the args so that was nice. So it cost as much time as it gave back.

Don't get me wrong, I find LLMs useful but they're nowhere near game changing like everyone says they are. I'm maybe 10% more productive? But I'm not convinced that's even true. And sure, I might have been able to do less handholding with agents and having it build test cases but for a script that took 15 minutes to write? Feels like serious overkill. And this is my average experience with them.

Is everyone just saying it's so good at bash because no one is taking the time to learn bash? It's a really simple language that every Linux user should know the basics of...

Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

#704
post #507

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These posts like the one OP made is why I'm losing my mind. Like, is there truly an agentic way to go 10x or is there some catch? At this point while I'm not thrilled about the idea of just "vibe coding" all the time, I'm fine with facing reality. But I keep having the same experience as you, or rather leaning more on that supercharged Google/SO replacement or just a "can you quickly make this boring func here that d…

>Like, is there truly an agentic way to go 10x Yes, absolutely. >or is there some catch? Yes, absolutely. The catch is that to go 10x you have to either do a lot of work of the variety that AI excels at, mainly boilerplate and logical but tedious modifications. There's a lot of code I can write, but I will probably need to check the syntax and implementations for 10 or more functions / methods, but I know what they a…

Okay, I got two questions and I never seem to get satisfactory answers but I'm actually curious.

1) What kind of code are you writing that's mostly boilerplate?

2) Why are you writing code that's mostly boilerplate and not code that generalizes boilerplate? (read: I'm lazy. If I'm typing the same things a lot I'm writing a script instead)

I'd think maybe the difference is in what we program but I see say similar things to you that program the types of things I program so idk

Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

#705

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be blunt and a bit nihilistic: I get paid to ship features. Client wants a feature EoW, they get it EoW, they're not paying for a week of extra work for the "quality codebase" feature. But the good thing is that we've had objective and automated tooling for quality checks for code. We used to use them for humans, but now we apply the same tools for AI. Good unit testing practices, exhaustive linters, .editorconfig…

Maintaining a quality code base is more than just having tests and linters. It's about organization, right-sized abstractions, architecture and choosing the right patterns. There is no real way to automate the verification of these things. If an agent farts out a 2,000 LOC feature in a day but bifurcates the code base, duplicates functions or makes awful abstractions, it WILL eventually turn into a big ball of mud. A…

> it requires much of the same thought and planning that development pre-LLMs did

Exactly, there's nothing new to coding with LLMs than there is coding with actual humans.

A human programmer can also fart out a 2000 LOC feature that bifurcates, duplicates and has shit abstractions - they just waste a full two week sprint on it.

With a LLM you get the piece of poop in a day and you still have 7-8 days to tell it to fix its shit. With a human you're two weeks in the hole already and the feature is should be QA'd (2 weeks) and needs to be released in a month so ... fuck =)

The feedback loop with LLM generated code is so much faster than with actual humans and it makes up for (some) of the issues with it.

Can it replace all human coders? Of course not. But all of the bulk shit of adding CRUD operations to a handler or adding a new parameter to a HTTP API and flowing it through the 12 layers of enterprise shit to the database layer can be easily done with an LLM and the humans can focus on the actual creative and difficult bits.

Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

#706

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Use the best tools, the lowest tier of Claude Code is perfect for the stuff you do at home in the evenings and weekends. It's also by far the best at being a "pair coder" as it's chatty and tells you what it's doing and doesn't get confused if you hit ESC and tell it to do something else. Build your own tools, need a small utility? Use an LLM to create it with you. Create LLM-focused tools and adjust your workflows t…

Another thing I'd suggest: look into and use non-coding AI tools that improve productivity. For example: Zoom meeting transcriptions and summaries or Granola. A lot of context is lost when you take manual notes in meetings. If you use a tool that turns a meeting into notes automatically, you can use those notes to bootstrap a prompt/plan for agents.

We use "Notion AI" to transcribe meetings and it's actually pretty good, we just had a team meeting where we talked shit about stuff going on in the company along with actual tasks.

It picked just the tasks and actual points from the transcript and skipped all of the jokes and us bitching about processes =)

Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

#707

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just as an aside I also think I am way more productive now but a really convincing datapoint would be someone who does project work and now has 5x the hourly rate they had last year. If there are not plenty of people like this, it cannot be 10x

That's not a very convincing argument. Even if you can do 10x the work, that doesn't necessarily mean you can easily find customers ready to pay 5x the hourly rate.

Not everyone bills hourly. I mostly do fixed price contracts

Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

#708

> Engineers need to really lean in to the change in my opinion. I tried leaning in. I really tried. I'm not a web developer or game developer (more robotics, embedded systems). I tried vibe coding web apps and games. They were pretty boring. I got frustrated that I couldn't change little things. I remember getting frustrated that my game character kept getting stuck on imaginary walls and kept asking Cursor to fix it…

IME vibe coding works spectacularly for simple one-off scripts that do a fairly simple thing. I can describe the work in ~10 minutes and save 2-4 hours of scripting.

Just last weekend I wanted a script to process a csv file and produce some reports and graphs out of that. I think it would've taken me the 2-4 hours to write it myself. Instead, I had cursor write it while waiting for boarding at the airport, probably no more than 10 minutes.

For codebases anything more complex than that, it starts to fall apart pretty quickly.

In that scenario it works ok only if I do all the work of designing the system and the functions and only let it type in the code for individual strictly-defined functions. So it does save some work which is nice, but it's not a huge win.

Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

#709

I love the hand drawn chart. Apparently "Open Source" was invented around 2005, which significantly reduced development cost, then AWS was invented in 2011 or so and made development even cheaper, but then, oh no, in 2018 "complexity" happened and development became harder!

I don't read this as when open-source was invented, but when it happened for the corporate world. In 2002 it was a very reasonable choice for $BIG_COMPANY to use a proprietary web server, e.g. IIS. In 2008 that would have been really be weird.

In the 90s windows was shipping with components cribbed from open source (and properly attributed).

It's not something new.

Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

#710

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Most of software work is maintaining "legacy" code, that is older systems that have been around for a long time and get a lot of use. That's not the definition of legacy. Being there for a long time and getting lots of use is not what makes a legacy project "legacy". Legacy projects are characterized by not being maintained and having little to no test coverage. The term "legacy" means "I'm afraid to touch it becau…

So a project that's still using Java 1.6 and has perfect test coverage and some poor developer is paid to maintain it (but NOT upgrade it!) is not "legacy" in your book? Then we disagree on the definition. "Legacy" projects to me are those that should've went through at least two generational refactorings but haven't because of some unfathomable reason. These are the ones that eventually end up being rewritten from s…

> So a project that's still using Java 1.6 and has perfect test coverage and some poor developer is paid to maintain it (but NOT upgrade it!) is not "legacy" in your book?

If a project is perfectly maintainable and developer teams are confident they can roll out any change they see fit with total confidence without having to risk nasty regressions or work around any pain points, then obviously it is not a legacy project as per definition.

If instead you have services running on Java25 that you can't touch a code path without breaking it or knowing it broke, that is a legacy project.

It is not about the age of a framework. It's about the ability to maintain it. Legacy is synonym with being unmaintained and unmaintainable. Not age.

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