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Grok3 Launch [video]

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Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#701

Post by gmerc »

mrcwinn wrote: post #698
InkCanon wrote: post #694

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I used to think the same way wrt Nvidia stock when it tanked - compute is clearly diminishing returns. Tech companies subsequently announced capex equal to or greater than expected in compute. I smacked myself on the forehead when I realized - I'd been think too much like an engineer. Tech CEOs badly want to believe they have an edge over every upstart from San Francisco to Shanghai. Unlimited spending on compute giv…

This is the danger of being informed only by sensational headlines. Nvidia's stock has fully recovered and is again near an all-time high. You seem to be generalizing about "Tech CEOs" — but in this case, GPUs are the advantage. They are necessary to achieve the outcome, and yet they are severely supply constrained. It's smart to overpay now. Apple did something similar with NAND storage for the iPad mini. They took…

Overpaying for using them is not smart. They depreciate fast under heavy load.

Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#702

Post by esafak »

Workaccount2 wrote: post #574
zamalek wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I use them as a springboard for things I am really unfamiliar with. I'm self-learning electronics at the moment, and so I can ask it things like "what's a common and widely available cooperator." You will not find that answer on a search engine, I don't care how good your Google fu is. It's a weak jack of all trades: it knows a fair amount about the sum of human knowledge (which is objectively super-human), but can't…

Heads up as an EE who uses LLMs quite a bit; they cannot analyze circuits or build them. They might be able to help stitch together modules (like sensor boards plugged into microcontrollers) and definitely can write code to get things going, but they fall flat on their face hard for any kind of bare bones electronics design. Like 5% success rate and 95% totally incorrect hallucinations.

The training data just isn't there yet, but I imagine they could use a circuit simulator for the verification involved in training the model, right?

Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#703

Post by sitkack »

card_zero wrote: post #422
zamalek wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I use them as a springboard for things I am really unfamiliar with. I'm self-learning electronics at the moment, and so I can ask it things like "what's a common and widely available cooperator." You will not find that answer on a search engine, I don't care how good your Google fu is. It's a weak jack of all trades: it knows a fair amount about the sum of human knowledge (which is objectively super-human), but can't…

That's a mistake for "comparator", isn't it. You've allowed the AI to train you to use the wrong word through a shared delusion, haven't you. Edit: if anybody knows otherwise, show me some evidence, don't just downvote. If these things are widely used, why are they impossible to find by searching? Why doesn't this electronics site know about them: https://www.eeeguide.com/?s=cooperator Why aren't they in any books wh…

> You will not find that answer on a search engine, I don't care how good your Google fu is.

The answer staring the OP right in the face.

Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#705

Post by swalsh »

InTheArena wrote: post #590
angusturner wrote: post #520

Credit to the engineers that built this, but it fills me with rage that Elon has this sort of unchecked power. How long before this starts getting deployed in safety critical applications or government decision making processes? With no oversight because Elon seems to have the power to dismiss the people responsible for investigating him. Anyone not scared by this concentration of power needs to pick up a book.

Elon's unchecked power at building a model? Or at politics? I always worry whenever I see people telling me how to feel - rage in this case. We are in a political system that is oriented more around getting people to feel rage and hatred as opposed to consensus and deliberation. Elon is the face of that, but it's a much longer and larger problem. Throw in the complete dismisal that anyone not scared of this is ignora…

> Continuing the senseless partisan drive of the 20 years does.

I think what the government is going through right now is wrapping up the last political system. The idea that Democrats and Republicans just need to learn how to work together is just wrong. The parties are being destroyed, and I think we should all cheer that. They were built to address the issues of the 20th century, and neither party in the current form is ready to address 21st century issues. I think AI, Climate change, world demographic changes around the world (ie: low birthrates) is going to seriously alter everything about our world from geopolitics, to economy, even social issues.

The democrats are stuck in supporting the new deal bureaucracy and the post ww2 order. That's over, it's crumbling right now, and i'm not going to try and defend any of it personally. It's just obsolete. The old Republican party your dad probably supported is dead too, that died a while ago. The new Republican party seems to be an alliance of people who just really want to cheer the crumbling of the old system (MAGA) and the first emergence of what politics in the 21st century is going to look like (the tech alliance).

Democrats would be smart to understand it's a new century we have new threats, new challenges, and need new institutions.... and this IS NOT a once in a lifetime opportunity to fix our government. This is the first draft of our new political system, and they have a choice to participate in shaping it, but they will need to get votes, and to get votes they need to stop stalking about obsolete ideas.

Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#706

Post by martin-t »

llm_trw wrote: post #648
niceice wrote: post #598

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

To quote Marx on the current churn in the US government: >The bourgeoisie cannot exist without constantly revolutionising the instruments of production, and thereby the relations of production, and with them the whole relations of society. Conservation of the old modes of production in unaltered form, was, on the contrary, the first condition of existence for all earlier industrial classes. Constant revolutionising o…

LLMs are used to launder code under GPL and AGPL and strip its users of their rights.

When I publish something under those copyleft licenses, my users have the right to see and modify the code. They even have that right if somebody else builds on top of my work. With LLMs, proprietary products based on my copyleft code are being written and used right now and my users have no rights at all, in fact, they don't even have a way to find out they are my users.

Imagine I ~~stole~~ got my hands on code from the top 5 tech companies and then made an autocompleter that looks at function signatures the programmer writes and autocompletes the function by picking a matching function from that corpus. I'd get sued and rightfully so.

What LLM companies are doing is exactly the same, just a bit more capable and it mixes the code just a bit more thoroughly to mask the origin.

Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#707

Post by Fnoord »

silentsanctuary wrote: post #644
niceice wrote: post #598

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

> TLDR: The status quo elite that have been looting the USA for decades is being replaced by the guy who runs SpaceX and is the most transparent elite we've ever seen. Why is that scarier? The reason why it's scarier is that for those of us who've come to understand Elon, his actions, and his methods better, it's clear that: - he IS "the status quo elite that have been looting the USA for decades" - instead of being…

My conclusion from reading The PayPal Wars was exactly that. That PayPal succeeded despite Musk.

As for all that government efficiency BS; it is just to swap to oligarchy. I mean, the name DOGE gives it away. DOGE was the first memecoin, entirely and openly being bullshit, yet it succeeded despite of that.

Meanwhile: not good emotional connection with father like the rest of these so-called strongmen (Trump, Putin, ...), and from a rich position of influence as child. Ie. he never was white trash, with his father having been part of pro-apartheid movement (a fight lost but which is meaningful for a young Elon). Furthermore, I am not convinced his drugs usage, in the end, serves him.

Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#708

Post by Tycho »

BluSyn wrote: post #697
gmerc wrote: post #668

[flagged]

You seem to be assuming that the full cost of the cluster is recouped by Grok 3. The real value will be in grok 5, 6, etc… xAI also announced a few days ago they are starting an internal video game studio. How long before AI companies take over Hollywood and Disney? The value available to be captured is massive. The cluster they’ve built is impressive compared to the competition, and grok 3 barely scratches what it’s…

Yes. Why do get these replies on HN that seem to only consider the most shallow, surface details? It could well be that xAI wins the AI race by betting on hardware first and foremost - new ideas are quickly copied by everyone, but a compute edge is hard to match.

Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#709

Post by Larrikin »

BluSyn wrote: post #697
gmerc wrote: post #668

[flagged]

You seem to be assuming that the full cost of the cluster is recouped by Grok 3. The real value will be in grok 5, 6, etc… xAI also announced a few days ago they are starting an internal video game studio. How long before AI companies take over Hollywood and Disney? The value available to be captured is massive. The cluster they’ve built is impressive compared to the competition, and grok 3 barely scratches what it’s…

It's not going to be from this unless it's forced upon us by the federal government. All the other companies are ahead and aren't just going to stop.

Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#710

Post by gordonhart »

gmerc wrote: post #668

[flagged]

As a consumer, I'm just happy that base models are improving again after a ~quarter or more of relative stagnation (last big base model drop was Sonnet v2 in October). Many use cases can't use o1, r1, or o3[-mini] due to the additional reasoning latency.
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