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Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers

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Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers

#701

Where are they getting the $500B? Softbank's market cap is 84b and their entire vision fund is only $100b, Oracle only has $11b cash on hand, OpenAI's only raised $17b total...

>> Where are they getting the $500B? Softbank's market cap is 84b and their entire vision fund is only $100b, Oracle only has $11b cash on hand, OpenAI's only raised $17b total... 1. The outlays can be over many years. 2. They can raise debt. People will happily invest at modest yields. 3. They can raise an equity fund.

Maybe it's in Bison Dollars?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPy27XWfAyI

Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers

#702
post #650
post #608

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>wars which break out because of scarcity issues That doesn't seem to be much of a thing these days. If you look at Russia/Ukraine or China/Taiwan there's not much scarcity. It's more bullying dictator wants to control the neighbours issues.

There's a terrifying amount of food insecurity and poverty in Russia - https://www.globalhungerindex.org/russia.html - https://databankfiles.worldbank.org/public/ddpext_download/p...

Russia is run by the mob. The country has no real dominant industry beyond its natural resources. Are they really a good example?

Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers

#704
post #622

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For less than this same price tag, we could’ve eliminated student loan debt for ~20 million Americans. It would in turn open a myriad number of opportunities, like owning a home and/or feeling more comfortable starting a family. It would stimulate the economy in predictable ways. Instead we gave a small number of people all of this money for a moonshot in a state where they squabble over who’s allowed to use which ba…

The problem with allowing student debt to rack up to these levels and then cancelling it is that it would embolden universities to ask even higher tuition. A second problem is that not all students get the benefit, some already paid off their debts or a large part of it. It would be unfair to them.

Yes but every policy is unfair. It literally is choosing where to give a limited resource, it can never be fully fair.

And there could be a change in the law that allows people to forgive student debt in personal bankruptcy, and that could make sure higher tuition doesnt happen.

Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers

#705
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post #599

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a money making scheme.

Mostly benefiting the fossil fuel industry. How are they going to power this? Gas is the only option that can be implemented within single years. And this is going to need a lot of power. Who cares about the planet, anyway.

For $500bn they can build a nuclear power plant dedicated to these data centres

Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers

#706

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just Ellison alone brings unwelcome feeling of having Oracle craziness forced down our collective throats, but I share your concern about the unholy alliance generated in front of us.

My immediate reaction to the announcement was one of these is not like the others. OpenAI, a couple of big investment funds, Microsoft, Nvidia, and...............Oracle?

There is a certain reason that last weeks everybody and their grandma is simping for Trump. Nobody would want to be on his bad side right now. Moreover, we hear here and there that Trump "keeps his promises". A lot of the promises we do not know about and we may never will. These people did not spend money supporting his campaign for nothing. In other places and eras this would have been called corruption, now it is called "keeping his promises".

Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers

#707

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Largest GPU cluster at the moment is X.ai's 100K H100's which is ~$2.5B worth of GPUs. So, something 10x bigger (1M GPUs) is $25B, and add $10B for 1GW nuclear reactor. This sort of $100-500B budget doesn't sound like training cluster money, more like anticipating massive industry uptake and multiple datacenters running inference (with all of corporate America's data sitting in the cloud).

Don't they say in the article that it is also for scaling up power and datacenters? That's the big cost here.

There's the servers and data center infrastructure (cooling, electricity) as well as the GPUs of course, but if we're talking $10B+ of GPUs in a single datacenter, it seems that would dominate. Electricity generation is also a big expense, and it seems nuclear is the most viable option although multi-GW solar plants are possible too in some locations. The 1GW ~ $10B number I suggested is in the right ballpark.

Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers

#708
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post #405

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is going to be the grift of the century. Pretty sure that was musk and his 50+ bn bonus

shareholders voted for it multiple times so harder to call it grift

Most grifts involve persuading the victim

Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers

#709
post #544

For fun, I calculated how this stacks up against other humanity-scale mega projects. Mega Project Rankings (USD Inflation Adjusted) The New Deal: $1T, Interstate Highway System: $618B, OpenAI Stargate: $500B, The Apollo Project: $278B, International Space Station: $180B, South-North Water Transfer: $106B, The Channel Tunnel: $31B, Manhattan Project: $30B Insane Stuff.

It's unfair, because we are talking in the hindsight about everything but Project Stargate, and it's also just your list (and I don't know what others could add to it) but it got me thinking. Manhattan Project goal is to make a powerful bomb. Apollo is to get to the Moon before soviets do (so, because of hubris, but still there is a concrete goal). South-North Water Transfer is pretty much terraforming, and others ar…

AI race is arguably just as, and maybe even more important, than the space race.

From a national security PoV, surpassing other countries’ work in the field is paramount to maintaining US hegemony.

We know China performs a ton of corporate espionage, and likely research in this field is being copied, then extended, in other parts of the world. China has been more intentional in putting money towards AI over the last 4 years.

We had the chips act, which is tangentially related, but nothing as complete as this. For i think a couple years, the climate impact of data centers caused active political slowdown from the previous administration.

Part of this is selling the project politically, so my belief is much of the talk of AGI and super intelligence is more marketing speak aimed at a general audience vs a niche tech community.

I’d be willing to predict that we’ll get some ancillary benefits to this level of investment. Maybe more efficient power generation? Cheaper electricity via more investment in nuclear power? Just spitballing, but this is an incredible amount of money, with $100 billion “instantly” deployed.

Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers

#710

I'm confused and a bit disturbed; honestly having a very difficult time internalizing and processing this information. This announcement is making me wonder if I'm poorly calibrated on the current progress of AI development and the potential path forward. Is the key idea here that current AI development has figured out enough to brute force a path towards AGI? Or I guess the alternative is that they expect to figure…

"There are maybe a few hundred people in the world who viscerally understand what's coming. Most are at DeepMind / OpenAI / Anthropic / X but some are on the outside. You have to be able to forecast the aggregate effect of rapid algorithmic improvement, aggressive investment in building RL environments for iterative self-improvement, and many tens of billions already committed to building data centers. Either we're a…

>Maybe they really are all wrong

All? Quite a few of the best minds in the field, like Yann LeCun for example, have been adamant that 1) autoregressive LLMs are NOT the path to AGI and 2) that AGI is very likely NOT just a couple of years away.

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