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OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

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Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#701

Post by necovek »

xbmcuser wrote: post #517
bluecoconut wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

some other imporant quotes: "Average human off the street: 70-80%. STEM college grad: >95%. Panel of 10 random humans: 99-100%" -@fchollet on X So, considering that the $3400/task system isn't able to compete with STEM college grad yet, we still have some room (but it is shrinking, i expect even more compute will be thrown and we'll see these barriers broken in coming years) Also, some other back of envelope calculat…

You are missing that cost of electricity is also going to keep falling because of solar and batteries. This year in China my table cloth math says it is $0.05 pkwh and following the cost decline trajectory be under $0.01 in 10 years

If climate change ends up changing weather profiles and we start seeing many more cloudy days or dust/mist in the air, we'll need to push those solar panel above (all the way to space?) or have many more of them, figure out transmission to the ground and costs will very much balloon.

Not saying this will happen, but it's risky to rely on solar as the only long-term solution.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#702

Post by BriggyDwiggs42 »

lumost wrote: post #696
duluca wrote: post #689

The first computers cost millions of dollars and filled entire rooms to accomplish what we would now consider simple computational tasks. That same computing power now fits into the width of a finger nail. I don’t get how technologists balk at the cost of experimental tech or assume current tech will run at the same efficiency for decades to come and melt the planet into a puddle. AGI won’t happen until you can fit e…

The concern here is mainly on practicality. The original mainframes did not command startup valuations counted in fractions of the US economy, they did qualify for billions in investment. This is a great milestone, but OpenAI will not be successful charging 10x the cost of a human to perform a task.

I wouldn’t expect it to cost 10x in five years, if only because parallel computing still seems to be roughly obeying moore’s.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#703

Post by OhioMan2943 »

salter2 wrote: post #506
OhioMan2943 wrote: post #456

I'm 22 and have no clue what I'm meant to do in a world where this is a thing. I'm moving to a semi rural, outdoorsy area where they teach data science and marine science and I can enjoy my days hiking, and the march of technology is a little slower. I know this will disrupt so much of our way of life, so I'm chasing what fun innocent years are left before things change dramatically.

I'm the same age as you; I feel lost, erring in being a little too pessimistic. Feels like I hit the real world just a couple years too late to get situated in a solid position. Years of obsession in attempt to catch up to the wizards, chasing the tech dream. But this, feels like this is it. Just watching the timebomb tick. I'd love to work on what feels like the final technology, but I'm not a freakshow like what th…

At least you're disillusioned with the idea of a long term career before a lot of other people. It's disturbing seeing how ready people are to go into a lifelong career and expecting stability and happiness in the world we're heading into.

We are living in a world run by and for the soon to be dead, many of which have dementia, so empathic policy and foresight is out of the question, and we're going to be picking up the incredibly broken scraps of our golden age.

And not to get too political but the mass restructuring of public consciousness and intellectual society due to mass immigration for an inexplicable gdp squeeze and social media is happening at exactly the wrong time to handle these very serious challenges. The speed at which we've undone civil society is breakneck, and it will go even further, and it will get even worse. We've easily gone back 200 years in terms of emotional intelligence in the past 15.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#704

Post by __MatrixMan__ »

dyauspitr wrote: post #592
__MatrixMan__ wrote: post #507

With only a 100x increase in cost, we improved performance by 0.1x and continued plotting this concave-down diminishing-returns type graph! Hurray for logarithmic x-axes! Joking aside, better than ever before at any cost is an achievement, it just doesn't exactly scream "breakthrough" to me.

I mean going from 10% to 85% doesn’t seem like a 0.1% improvement

Oh crap I made a mistake. I was comparing o3 low to o3 high.

I'm a little disappointed by all the upvotes I got for being flat wrong. I guess as long as you're trashing AI you can get away with anything.

Really I was just trying to nitpick the chart parameters.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#707

Post by otabdeveloper4 »

duluca wrote: post #689

The first computers cost millions of dollars and filled entire rooms to accomplish what we would now consider simple computational tasks. That same computing power now fits into the width of a finger nail. I don’t get how technologists balk at the cost of experimental tech or assume current tech will run at the same efficiency for decades to come and melt the planet into a puddle. AGI won’t happen until you can fit e…

Intelligence has nothing at all whatever to do with compute.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#708

Post by oefnak »

otabdeveloper4 wrote: post #707
duluca wrote: post #689

The first computers cost millions of dollars and filled entire rooms to accomplish what we would now consider simple computational tasks. That same computing power now fits into the width of a finger nail. I don’t get how technologists balk at the cost of experimental tech or assume current tech will run at the same efficiency for decades to come and melt the planet into a puddle. AGI won’t happen until you can fit e…

Intelligence has nothing at all whatever to do with compute.

Unless you're a dualist who believes in a magic spirit, I cannot understand how you think that's the case. Can you please explain?

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#709

Post by [deleted] »

nopinsight wrote: post #125

Let me go against some skeptics and explain why I think full o3 is pretty much AGI or at least embodies most essential aspects of AGI. What has been lacking so far in frontier LLMs is the ability to reliably deal with the right level of abstraction for a given problem. Reasoning is useful but often comes out lacking if one cannot reason at the right level of abstraction. (Note that many humans can't either when they…

[deleted]

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#710

Post by OhioMan2943 »

Engineering-MD wrote: post #575

Can I just say what a dick move it was to do this as a 12 days of Christmas. I mean to be honest I agree with the arguments this isn’t as impressive as my initial impression, but they clearly intended it to be shocking/a show of possible AGI, which is rightly scary. It feels so insensitive to that right before a major holiday when the likely outcome is a lot of people feeling less secure in their career/job/life. Tha…

I hate the deliberate fear-mongering that these companies pedal on the population to get higher valuations
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