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Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

cnn.com

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Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#701

Post by sevnin »

fuoqi wrote: post #130

Looks like a pretty transparent hint on how response to the recent US/UK/France permission to use long-range missiles against the Russian territory could look like. The Nord Stream sabotage has opened Pandora's box almost exactly how it was predicted in Cryptonomicon.

It didn't open a pandoras box, Russians are very creative in the escalation warfare. It was known for quite a bit of time that Russians were mapping these cables out. They are probably, like always, just testing to see the response (rather lack of it).

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#702

Post by Wytwwww »

Aloisius wrote: post #372
Wytwwww wrote: post #326

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Which one would you like to use to board and/or force the ship to depart against Russian cable cutting ships? High seas (which is what that list applies to) is not the EEZ. I don't think anybody could legally argue thar a country wouldn't have the right to board (or fire at, if it didn't comply) a foreign ship from it's coast 24 nautical miles if it suspected it was doing something illegal. Whether that right exten…

Probably don't want to fire at the nuclear powered cargo ship that is suspected. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sevmorput

Unless the reactor is directly hit there shouldn't be any significant problems? It's not a warship so there wouldn't be any need for heavy munitions to force it to surrender.

Of course the Baltic is very shallow so if the reactor started leaking it might be a bit more problematic than if a nuclear ship/sub was sunk in the middle of the ocean.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#703

Post by oneshtein »

probably_wrong wrote: post #614
oneshtein wrote: post #585

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Delivery of Russian gas was stopped by Russia in violation of contract. European gas companies demands $20 billion in compensation. Nobody had incentive to blow up empty pipes except Russia. Of course, Russians used false flag as usual, to blame Ukraine, but Ukraine doesn't hide successful attacks on Russian infrastructure, because Ukraine has legal right to defend itself.

While a false flag operation cannot be ruled out, I don't think the case is as clear-cut as you suggest. > Nobody had incentive to blow up empty pipes except Russia. I disagree: Russian gas was the one leverage Russia had over Germany. Blowing the pipeline ensured that Germany wouldn't be able to get out of the conflict quietly - "Germany still receiving Russian gas" would not receive as much condemnation as "Germany…

European countries demand US$20 billion for undelivered gas from Russia[1].

Maybe, $20 billion is pocket money for you, but it's big money for Russia. A false flag operation is much much cheaper.

[1]: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/european-countries-demand-us-...

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#704

Post by Cthulhu_ »

oneshtein wrote: post #589
nkrisc wrote: post #537

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This would be more concerning if Russia had any tanks left. Are you suggesting Russia has a full invasion force they’re not using in Ukraine? Or to liberate their own occupied territory?

RF refurbishes about 1300 tanks a year. It's more than enough to conquer part of Europe and then exchange it for Ukraine.

They might occupy some area, sure, but if they invade a EU or NATO country they'll get that full force on top of them. And they have a lot of aircraft to deploy too; tanks have zero chance against an airstrike.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#705

Post by oneshtein »

nbman102 wrote: post #611
oneshtein wrote: post #585

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Delivery of Russian gas was stopped by Russia in violation of contract. European gas companies demands $20 billion in compensation. Nobody had incentive to blow up empty pipes except Russia. Of course, Russians used false flag as usual, to blame Ukraine, but Ukraine doesn't hide successful attacks on Russian infrastructure, because Ukraine has legal right to defend itself.

That is a very abbreviated history. There are two pipelines, NS-1 and NS-2, both of which have two pipes each. NS-1 was operational until a turbine had to be repaired in Canada. The bureaucratic process to allow the repair was arduous, but finally it got done and chancellor Scholz did a photo-op in front of the repaired turbine. Then the Russians played coy and came up with counter-bureaucratic reasons why the repair…

Russia had $20 billion reasons to blow up their gas pipelines and blame Ukraine for that.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#706

Post by Wytwwww »

XorNot wrote: post #590
Wytwwww wrote: post #508

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't need false documents, buying and operating a ship that has no direct ties to Russia and is registered at an other country isn't that hard at all. Of course yeah, if suddenly if cables get cut 10x more often that they used to it be pretty obvious who is behind it regardless. > has never been to do things where it's not obvious they did They could still shot them or something like that, the window thing still…

> You don't need false documents, buying and operating a ship that has no direct ties to Russia and is registered at an other country isn't that hard at all You literally just described a program of falsifying documents! If you're buying and operating a ship, then to have "no ties to Russia" while using Russian money, someone is showing up with forged paperwork or some off-the-books bribes to make that happen. Drawin…

Again, I'm not sure getting a ship registered (or just buying one) in a random island country through a shell company would be that hard.

> funds transferred, meetings held and operations authorized.

It's Russia... I doubt there would be a lot oversight. But they might just as well get the money from one of the "private" companies run by Putin's cronies with zero direct involvement by the Russian government.

Anyway, I still think that acquiring the ship itself is still a relatively trivial problem to solve.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#707

Post by nkrisc »

oneshtein wrote: post #589
nkrisc wrote: post #537

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This would be more concerning if Russia had any tanks left. Are you suggesting Russia has a full invasion force they’re not using in Ukraine? Or to liberate their own occupied territory?

RF refurbishes about 1300 tanks a year. It's more than enough to conquer part of Europe and then exchange it for Ukraine.

What non-NATO European country are they going to invade (and hold!) as a bargaining chip?

Any how many of those tanks go straight to Ukraine? Do you think Russia can afford to stockpile tanks (and everything else necessary) for several years for an invasion of Europe while simultaneously engaged in the their current war in Ukraine?

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#708

Post by oneshtein »

Cthulhu_ wrote: post #704
oneshtein wrote: post #589

Earlier quoted context omitted.

RF refurbishes about 1300 tanks a year. It's more than enough to conquer part of Europe and then exchange it for Ukraine.

They might occupy some area, sure, but if they invade a EU or NATO country they'll get that full force on top of them. And they have a lot of aircraft to deploy too; tanks have zero chance against an airstrike.

NATO cannot stop Russia in Ukraine, even with help of 1 million Ukrainian army. NATO have no enough tanks, shells, soldiers to stop 2 million army in few first weeks, even if Russians will just march with their AK-s in hands. The only thing that will stop Russia for sure is a nuclear strike. Planes are good for strikes, but ground must be captured and hold by soldiers.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#709

Post by limit499karma »

oneshtein wrote: post #586
vasco wrote: post #567

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wish I lived in a world where it's so easy to know who is good and who is evil and to pinpoint them so well.

This planet voted in UN that Russian Federation is aggressor. Which world you represent?

Maybe he is an Israeli.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#710

Post by [deleted] »

CrazyCatDog wrote: post #377
ValentinA23 wrote: post #321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A 1 in 36 million chance for three breaks in one day. https://mathb.in/80217

“Knowing that 200 undersea cables break every year globally, estimate the probability that 3 cables break in the baltic sea on the same day.” I’m stealing this to use for grad-student mock-interviews—thank you!

[deleted]
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