701–710 of 767 posts
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> I’m a little confounded that you suggest Elon believes shorting to be “morally wrong”. Why conflate his ego and financial stake with “morality”? Because in the over ten years I have of watching what he says and what he does I've found him to be a forthright person who says what he thinks. He's not the type to intentionally deceive others. He's often wrong, but he's upfront with what he thinks. Also he's shown many…
> He's not the type to intentionally deceive others. Have you seen him tweet that he was in a deal to take Tesla private? Have you seen his Solar Tiles marketing stunt, where he was claiming all of the houses around him had functioning solar tiles, when instead they were pure props? Have you seen him sell FSD with a promise that it will work in 1 year, and that it will literally pay for itself by letting your car be…
Except he was. Have you seen the leaked tweets between him and the Saudis? He had verbal guarantees of funding and he trusted them at their word. That goes back to him being truthful, he doesn't have much ability to spot people lying to him and takes great offense at it when he finds out he was lied to.
> Have you seen his Solar Tiles marketing stunt, where he was claiming all of the houses around him had functioning solar tiles, when instead they were pure props?
It's not a marketing stunt. My friend works on them and Tesla sells them.
> Have you seen him sell FSD with a promise that it will work in 1 year, and that it will literally pay for itself by letting your car be an autonomous taxi while you are at work?
That's him being honest of his own thoughts on the matter. He keeps thinking that they're close to it being complete but then the improvement rate plateaus. He's commented as such in in interviews when asked about the repeated 1 year time periods. And the autonomous taxi is still the plan. That hasn't changed.
> Have you seen him claim the Tesla Cybertruck will be available for pre-orders next year?
Because events in the business changed. What their plans are at one point in time doesn't mean that what they say will happen.
> Have you seen him claim he is backing out of this Twitter deal because of the many bots on Twitter, when he was previously claiming that he is buying Twitter to fix the bot problem?
Except he wasn't saying he was buying Twitter to fix the bot problem. That was never the plan at all. A lot of you people have ridiculous recency bias where you completely forget the events of even a few months ago. I've seen several people in this thread state this assuredly when only a couple weeks ago we were all talking about him buying Twitter to create a internet public town square and how it was about not banning people for what they say (and people claiming how horrible this idea was), but now suddenly that's all gone and its about bots. Elon is more trustworthy than most of the posters on hacker news and reddit as at least he's consistent.
> There are instances where he might have indeed believed the ridiculous promises he was making, but he has a long history of directly lying to consumers and investors to get his way or manipulate stock (or crypto) prices.
He has a long history of making crazy predictions, and fulfilling some of them while others completely flop. A lot of people doubted that Tesla would reach 500,000 vehicles per year production rate, and yet they have, almost exactly when they planned to. Growing at a rate faster than any automotive company has grown in history. A lot of people doubted that SpaceX could re-use rockets and now they land rockets multiple times per month and re-fly them within only 2-3 weeks. A few weeks ago they launched 3 rockets (that were all being re-used) in the span of 36 hours.
(Oh and the whole supposed crypto pump and dump is a myth given that he's never come around and stopped supporting it. He's never manipulated stock prices/crypto for personal gain.)
People ignore all the promises he's fulfilled and focus on the promises that either haven't come true yet or the promises that were discarded for a better idea. The general public on the internet is incredibly disingenuous about Elon and it drives me to frustration all the time. It seems to be largely an internet problem as most people I know IRL are either neutral on him (don't really care) or like what he's done.
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Well, minus a discount for however long you think it will take before that actually happens, taking into account such things as inflation, interest rates, and market performance (due to the opportunity costs of holding this stock until then).
>A fun side effect of all of this: if you believe in the court's ability to force Musk to buy Twitter, you should continue to buy up stock until it reaches the price Musk agreed to pay for it. How do I bet on no outcome one way or another for many many years? If there's one thing I know about the US legal system it is giant corporations battling each other takes years and years to resolve.
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> I’m a little confounded that you suggest Elon believes shorting to be “morally wrong”. Why conflate his ego and financial stake with “morality”? Because in the over ten years I have of watching what he says and what he does I've found him to be a forthright person who says what he thinks. He's not the type to intentionally deceive others. He's often wrong, but he's upfront with what he thinks. Also he's shown many…
> He's not the type to intentionally deceive others. He's often wrong, but he's upfront with what he thinks. So when he submitted official documents that he wants to be a passive investor at Twitter while already having internal talks about buying it and/or getting a board seat he ... accidentally forgot about that?
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> Musk pretended that TSLA valuation is reasonable. Musk even called out Gates for shorting TSLA stock [2]. If he didn't have a cover then Musk would look like a hypocrite for selling TSLA. This is outright false and goes directly against his multiple stated instances of saying that the Tesla stock price is overvalued. Don't make things up to suit your biases.
Okay, so Musk didn't even pretend TSLA's price was reasonable, but surely you agree that "buying Twitter" is a good excuse for him to dump some TSLA while it's incredibly overvalued?
This article says Musk agreed to buy Twitter mostly as a joke. I think there's a far better explanation. This wasn't a joke for Musk because after agreeing to buy Twitter he proceeded to sell billions of dollars' worth of TSLA stock, supposedly to finance the purchase. Even for the richest man in the world that's not a joke. I think a better explanation is that Musk offered to buy Twitter as a cover for selling billi…
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Your argument is inconsistent. Why would the value go down at all, if not because he would look like a hypocrite otherwise. Regardless, even if this were consistent, GP's argument still stands: that's an enormous asking of risk to take on. It could end up costing him more than the $8.5bn.
The argument is not incosistent, as I understand it, you just talked past each other. What the above commenter meant is that Elon was not worried about appearing a hypocrite, as a matter of shame - that is, it is not like his conscience was burdened. He worried about losing Tesla valuation, something that truly would be caused by appearing as a hypocrite to the public - so his circus was merely a calculation based on…
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Your argument is inconsistent. Why would the value go down at all, if not because he would look like a hypocrite otherwise. Regardless, even if this were consistent, GP's argument still stands: that's an enormous asking of risk to take on. It could end up costing him more than the $8.5bn.
I’m not making any argument, I’m just repeating the most popular theory right now.
This article says Musk agreed to buy Twitter mostly as a joke. I think there's a far better explanation. This wasn't a joke for Musk because after agreeing to buy Twitter he proceeded to sell billions of dollars' worth of TSLA stock, supposedly to finance the purchase. Even for the richest man in the world that's not a joke. I think a better explanation is that Musk offered to buy Twitter as a cover for selling billi…
Elon Musk has probably taken a big haircut on his current stake in Twitter and is also risking being forced to buy Twitter anyway or losing 1 billion plus legal fees. That sounds like an awful lot of work to sell 8.5 billion worth of Tesla shares.
IDK. Most people work their entire life not even getting to 1 million.
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Actually less trouble than short selling, where the loss, in theory, is unlimited. On options losses are capped to the money invested. Nevertheless, you should consider that a host of professional traders with much better equipment and connections are betting against you.
> On options losses are capped to the money invested. On long options -- a purchased call, purchased short, or a combination -- then losses are capped to the money invested. On short options, losses are potentially unlimited. Understanding the difference is obviously extremely important. > Nevertheless, you should consider that a host of professional traders with much better equipment and connections are betting agai…