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Mobile is Eating the World

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Re: Mobile is Eating the World

#71

Post by ted13 »

api wrote: post #46
pbreit wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That strikes me as a lousy comparison. I could easily see a notebook with a detachable touchscreen and the proper OS (OSes?) being a useful machine (easier to see since a reasonably selling device actually exists). What if an iPad Air could simple attach to a MB Air chassis and only serve as the display when attached?

It's not a hardware limit that keeps mobile from wholly eating desktop, but a software one. Mobile OSes are intentionally crippled and locked down at the OS layer. You don't own or control your device, and only approved software can run. Android is a bit better than iOS in this respect, but not much. None of the mobile vendors have any incentive to change this, since it would mean forfeiting the App Store tax and for…

Apple loves to canibalize itself. iPod, which used to be 50% of the company: practically gone, totally canibalized by the iPhone. The iPad has already eaten plenty of Mac, outselling it between 2:1 & 3:1. The idea that if only the iPad were less locked down it would sell more and canibalize the Mac, thus Apple doesn't allow it, is absurd.

The App Store "tax"? Sure, Apple doesn't mind the cash. But they are first, second and third a hardware company: that's where the real money is. The reason they have no intention to allow side loading apps on iOS has to do with user experience, eliminating support headaches and security (order may be different, but these re the reasons).

The fact is your dream device would appeal to the same people who buy desktop Linux machines now. They exist, but they are a tiny part of the market. Nobody can stay in business catering to just those customers.

Re: Mobile is Eating the World

#73

Post by UrMomReadsHN »

pbreit wrote: post #33
fidotron wrote: post #5

Is this actually true? My perception is that the smartphone bubble is bursting. Yes, there are lots more people to come online, but all they're going to do is use WhatsApp and Facebook. The big disappointment of mobile is that all this stuff doesn't seem to result in enabling people to do their jobs better or more easily. Web apps really exploded with things like Basecamp, but the most mobile has brought along for th…

Well, I guess you've completely missed that it's not about improving work, it's about improving non-work such as entertainment, leisure and healthcare. Work computers have remained relatively static by comparison in capabilities, numbers, usage and usage type.

Perhaps it is just me but I include "getting stuff done" as part of "work."

Perhaps it is just me but I find a smartphone incredibly useless for anything but the most passive of tasks.

If I want to "do something" I use a computer. "Something" being defined very loosely. Do rather than consume. Even doing something for leisure since 99% of "doing" tasks are very difficult to do on a phone for me - if that makes any sense.

Re: Mobile is Eating the World

#74

Post by sillysaurus3 »

pixl97 wrote: post #69
sillysaurus3 wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know why this is controversial. You aren't going to carry a camera around with you everywhere you go, nor a GPS, nor a laptop. But you'll carry your smartphone. So you can do more things because you have your smartphone with you. Anyway, my main point was that culture was the reason for the dark ages, not ability to do things. And smartphones don't override culture.

>And smartphones don't override culture. What does override culture? Talking to the people around you? Newspapers? Books? Telephones? Peoples options? News? Culture: the arts and other manifestations of human intellectual achievement regarded collectively. If you don't think that an instantaneous audio/graphical communications device cannot be used as a means to effect culture you are highly confused about what cultu…

Another day, another snarky HN comment...

As I said, smartphones morph culture in interesting ways. That's a direct product of having access to all of the things you mention. But people are still fundamentally people. If the world believes that war is necessary, smartphones aren't going to change that. And that belief was one of the main reasons for the dark ages.

Re: Mobile is Eating the World

#75

Post by kemiller »

sinofsky wrote: post #54

At every moment of disruption in technology people saying that the new technology doesn't replace the incumbent. By definition disruptive technologies are less functional and inadequate "replacements". First, folks tend to talk about all the things that the new technology can't do that the old one does do. In the Steve Jobs interview at All Things D referenced in the comments, he goes on to talk about how software ne…

This is it. We will always need tools that do the things that what we designate "PCs" — computers with monitors, keyboard, mice, and peripherals — do best today. In absolute numbers, the sales volume of such devices may even continue to rise in the long run. But they will probably look more and more like our mobile devices, or they will be replaced by grown-up tablets.

Re: Mobile is Eating the World

#76

Post by kemiller »

cageface wrote: post #6

There is no point in drawing a distinction between the future of technology and the future of mobile. I find Evans' analysis of mobile a bit hyperbolic. Yes the growth of mobile is explosive and, in some cases, it's displacing older technology. But for a lot of use cases small touch screen devices are simply inadequate. It's probably true that a lot of people that used to use desktop or laptop computers just to check…

Of course they will need to do those things. We also still need to process credit card transactions, and we still use mainframes to do it, and IBM still makes a tidy income selling and servicing them. But I don't think anyone would consider us to be living in the era of the mainframe. The point isn't that the old stuff goes away, but that they lose their positions as the center of gravity.

Re: Mobile is Eating the World

#77

Post by icebraining »

cageface wrote: post #14
icebraining wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But for a lot of use cases small touch screen devices are simply inadequate. That's a bit of a red herring. One of my colleagues uses a Surface; the first thing she does on arriving at the office is plug two cables to work with a proper screen and keyboard. Then when she has a meeting, she simply unplugs and uses it as a tablet, which is useful for passing it around, etc. People that need to edit complex spreadsheets…

It's worth keeping in mind that there's a countervailing trend though. Conventional laptops are getting lighter and last a lot longer on a charge. The extra bulk of something like a current Macbook Air vs an iPad isn't much but it's a vastly more capable machine. And, even if we do see an increase in more hybrid devices like the Surface, you can't just blow up a touch screen app to 24". Specialized tasks will still r…

Conventional laptops are getting lighter and last a lot longer on a charge.

Fair enough. You pay for the extra power, though; you can buy two iPad Air 2 for the price of the cheapest 13-inch Macbook Air.

Re: Mobile is Eating the World

#78

Post by sinofsky »

kemiller wrote: post #75
sinofsky wrote: post #54

At every moment of disruption in technology people saying that the new technology doesn't replace the incumbent. By definition disruptive technologies are less functional and inadequate "replacements". First, folks tend to talk about all the things that the new technology can't do that the old one does do. In the Steve Jobs interview at All Things D referenced in the comments, he goes on to talk about how software ne…

This is it. We will always need tools that do the things that what we designate "PCs" — computers with monitors, keyboard, mice, and peripherals — do best today. In absolute numbers, the sales volume of such devices may even continue to rise in the long run. But they will probably look more and more like our mobile devices, or they will be replaced by grown-up tablets.

History shows that in the short term the devices that are new have characteristics of the generation being replaced. But then they break away and things get redefined. The first word processors looked like typewriters. The first presentation packages focused on 35mm slides and "foils".

Re: Mobile is Eating the World

#79

Post by AnthonyMouse »

pixl97 wrote: post #65
awad wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Steve Jobs had a good quote on this: "I'm trying to think of a good analogy. When we were an agrarian nation, all cars were trucks. But as people moved more towards urban centers, people started to get into cars. I think PCs are going to be like trucks. Less people will need them. And this transformation is going to make some people uneasy... because the PC has taken us a long way. They were amazing. But it changes.…

That seems like a very silly analogy Steve made. By percentage, ya more autos were trucks back in the day, but there are more 'trucks' on the road than ever before. From small light duty trucks to gigantic semi's with an army of axles under them we are no closer to post-truck then we were when they owned the road.

It's the same thing with the PC. People look at the PC numbers declining, but that's the sales numbers, not the installed base. People haven't stopped using their PCs, they've just stopped upgrading them.

Re: Mobile is Eating the World

#80

Post by sdenton4 »

awad wrote: post #43
cageface wrote: post #6

There is no point in drawing a distinction between the future of technology and the future of mobile. I find Evans' analysis of mobile a bit hyperbolic. Yes the growth of mobile is explosive and, in some cases, it's displacing older technology. But for a lot of use cases small touch screen devices are simply inadequate. It's probably true that a lot of people that used to use desktop or laptop computers just to check…

Steve Jobs had a good quote on this: "I'm trying to think of a good analogy. When we were an agrarian nation, all cars were trucks. But as people moved more towards urban centers, people started to get into cars. I think PCs are going to be like trucks. Less people will need them. And this transformation is going to make some people uneasy... because the PC has taken us a long way. They were amazing. But it changes.…

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