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Doctor in New York City Is Sick with Ebola

nytimes.com

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Re: Doctor in New York City Is Sick with Ebola

#71

Post by hga »

rurban wrote: post #69
msie wrote: post #2

The doctor should have known better than to go to a bowling alley soon after he returned. Whether or not he was contagious now they have to perform contact tracing and disinfect the place.

Please read up on Ebola. It is only contagious when the patient is experiencing symptoms, not earlier. He got fever Thursday morning. So he knew better, just hackers have no idea. "Since returning, he had been taking his temperature twice a day". Or maybe they just cannot read. So no, they don't have to disinfect the bowling area. But people are hysterical, so they did. Even the NY Times got it right this time: "Peop…

We think that is true. But we don't know.

Prior to this outbreak, this Ziare strain of Ebolavirus, now formally known as "Ebola virus", has never infected more than 318 people at a time, and not a whole lot more than a thousand total: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Ebola_outbreaks#List_o...

I guarantee that at least one of the things the usual suspects like the CDC "know" about its transmission is wrong. Consequentially wrong? Well, we'll see.

As for this case, he was not feeling well (also described as "sluggish") for a couple of days before his self-monitored temperature spiked. Which is prompting the usual suspects to say that that wasn't a "symptom" ... which is open to question.

Re: Doctor in New York City Is Sick with Ebola

#72

Post by hga »

capkutay wrote: post #35
malandrew wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At the same time, I wouldn't be surprised if people tend to let their guard down in the days and hours before they leave the country. Instead of quarantining by default, I think it would be interesting to offer a free, relaxing vacation in a low population density region to people who are returning from helping in Africa. i.e. you cannot leave West Africa and return to a major city directly. Instead you fly back to y…

Given gov't budgets in disease prevention, they're more likely to quarantine people in prions than a relaxing vacation

It would be really cheap for the rest of us to provide "the basics", e.g. a flatscreen TV (get the cableco or DirectTV and/or Dish to donate service), Internet connection (ditto on trying to get it for free from a provider) and if needed a computer, and then it won't be that onerous. Historically to my knowledge we typically haven't gone the prison route outside of special cases like Typhoid Mary.

Re: Doctor in New York City Is Sick with Ebola

#73

Post by maxerickson »

hga wrote: post #71
rurban wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please read up on Ebola. It is only contagious when the patient is experiencing symptoms, not earlier. He got fever Thursday morning. So he knew better, just hackers have no idea. "Since returning, he had been taking his temperature twice a day". Or maybe they just cannot read. So no, they don't have to disinfect the bowling area. But people are hysterical, so they did. Even the NY Times got it right this time: "Peop…

We think that is true. But we don't know . Prior to this outbreak, this Ziare strain of Ebolavirus , now formally known as "Ebola virus", has never infected more than 318 people at a time, and not a whole lot more than a thousand total: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Ebola_outbreaks#List_o... I guarantee that at least one of the things the usual suspects like the CDC "know" about its transmission is wrong. Con…

What's at risk with your guarantee? An internet handle?

Meanwhile, the transmissions in Dallas have all been in keeping with the things the usual suspects were saying (health care workers did become infected there, but they are known to be at higher risk, PPE is known not to be 100% safe, the hospital did not have great PPE procedures in place).

Re: Doctor in New York City Is Sick with Ebola

#74

Post by maxerickson »

droithomme wrote: post #37
sigmar wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

well, he went to a bowling alley eight days after getting back to NY. What is more egregious is that the NYTimes is reporting he was feeling sluggish on Tuesday, why didn't he self-quarantine or contact someone earlier than today?

Also, when he says he called DWB on Thursday his temperature was 103. Did it go from 99 to 103 overnight? Or was he running a low grade temperature for several days. Accounts of how he was found are a bit odd. In some articles the fire department was sent to retrieve him. According to another article, a tenant in his building claims police broke down the door to get into his apartment.

The reports now are saying his temperature was 100.3 F and that the 103 was a mistake.

Re: Doctor in New York City Is Sick with Ebola

#75

Post by maxerickson »

kamaal wrote: post #65
msie wrote: post #2

The doctor should have known better than to go to a bowling alley soon after he returned. Whether or not he was contagious now they have to perform contact tracing and disinfect the place.

>>now they have to perform contact tracing and disinfect the place. I wonder how feasible this is. Its not just the bowling alley, using public rest rooms, subway, or utensils at a restaurant. Its almost impossible to find every thing he came in contact with and disinfect it. Plus in case of stuff like utensils, whats to guarantee that they were not mixed with each other and used by other people already . If some one…

Restaurants in New York would routinely sanitize utensils (as in, as part of the washing after every use).

Re: Doctor in New York City Is Sick with Ebola

#76

Post by hga »

maxerickson wrote: post #73
hga wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We think that is true. But we don't know . Prior to this outbreak, this Ziare strain of Ebolavirus , now formally known as "Ebola virus", has never infected more than 318 people at a time, and not a whole lot more than a thousand total: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Ebola_outbreaks#List_o... I guarantee that at least one of the things the usual suspects like the CDC "know" about its transmission is wrong. Con…

What's at risk with your guarantee? An internet handle? Meanwhile, the transmissions in Dallas have all been in keeping with the things the usual suspects were saying (health care workers did become infected there, but they are known to be at higher risk, PPE is known not to be 100% safe, the hospital did not have great PPE procedures in place).

My "universal" login handle (aside from the occasional rigid company) that I've been using since 1978 (sic); my user page's email also leads straight to my true name, home address, etc.

As for Dallas, the plural of anecdote is not data. We just don't know yet; for example, in 1st World conditions where IV saline etc. are standard, the death rate may be well below the 70% currently estimated in West Africa. Although your points about the Dallas Ebola Magnet Hospital of Excellence's, are correct: while following the then current CDC "protocols" (scare quotes since the CDC and others invested so much into their sanctity vs. health care workers following them), were inadequate, e.g. no neck coverage.

Heck, look at the standard Bellevue Hospital PPE picture that's been floating around for many days, e.g. http://www.nydailynews.com/life-style/health/bellevue-hospit... Based on what we suspect the person on the right would stand a serious chance of getting Ebola, and that's no longer the protocol.

Or look at this gem from the U.K. press: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2805930/Should-Offic...

You don't suppose there's some environmental, population density, etc. differences that might make NYC's experience different than Dallas'?

Re: Doctor in New York City Is Sick with Ebola

#77

Post by maxerickson »

hga wrote: post #76
maxerickson wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's at risk with your guarantee? An internet handle? Meanwhile, the transmissions in Dallas have all been in keeping with the things the usual suspects were saying (health care workers did become infected there, but they are known to be at higher risk, PPE is known not to be 100% safe, the hospital did not have great PPE procedures in place).

My "universal" login handle (aside from the occasional rigid company) that I've been using since 1978 (sic); my user page's email also leads straight to my true name, home address, etc. As for Dallas, the plural of anecdote is not data. We just don't know yet; for example, in 1st World conditions where IV saline etc. are standard, the death rate may be well below the 70% currently estimated in West Africa. Although y…

I absolutely believe that medical workers in the US that have potential exposure should be very careful about what they are doing (both people traveling back from West Africa and people involved in treatment at US hospitals). The various institutions involved should be helping with this (the hospitals, city, state, federal agencies).

That doesn't mean chickens need to start running at axes the second a known case is identified and isolated.

Re: Doctor in New York City Is Sick with Ebola

#78

Post by hga »

maxerickson wrote: post #77
hga wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My "universal" login handle (aside from the occasional rigid company) that I've been using since 1978 (sic); my user page's email also leads straight to my true name, home address, etc. As for Dallas, the plural of anecdote is not data. We just don't know yet; for example, in 1st World conditions where IV saline etc. are standard, the death rate may be well below the 70% currently estimated in West Africa. Although y…

I absolutely believe that medical workers in the US that have potential exposure should be very careful about what they are doing (both people traveling back from West Africa and people involved in treatment at US hospitals). The various institutions involved should be helping with this (the hospitals, city, state, federal agencies). That doesn't mean chickens need to start running at axes the second a known case is…

"That doesn't mean chickens need to start running at axes the second a known case is identified and isolated."

Which is being advocated by precisely who?

My major theme here is that people, and most especially "authorities" should not be lying, e.g. not making absolute statements about things which aren't. So fat that that has resulted in a constantly changing the party line as preceding versions have turned out to be lies. But there's worse, in the most brazen example I know of, http://cnsnews.com/news/article/brittany-m-hughes/cdc-you-ca... contradicting yourself in consecutive sentences.

You want "panic"? Convince the American people the authorities responsible for keeping us from getting an epidemic of Biblical proportions are systematically, even routinely lying to us. We're well along the road to that.

Re: Doctor in New York City Is Sick with Ebola

#79

Post by maxerickson »

hga wrote: post #78
maxerickson wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I absolutely believe that medical workers in the US that have potential exposure should be very careful about what they are doing (both people traveling back from West Africa and people involved in treatment at US hospitals). The various institutions involved should be helping with this (the hospitals, city, state, federal agencies). That doesn't mean chickens need to start running at axes the second a known case is…

" That doesn't mean chickens need to start running at axes the second a known case is identified and isolated. " Which is being advocated by precisely who? My major theme here is that people, and most especially "authorities" should not be lying, e.g. not making absolute statements about things which aren't. So fat that that has resulted in a constantly changing the party line as preceding versions have turned out to…

The harsh reading given to Frieden's statements in that video is exactly what I mean by chickens running at axes.

He wasn't very clear there. But the CDC statements have been reasonably consistent and clear, especially in the face of the ridiculous questions they get from reporters. A softer reading is that transmission from an asymptomatic person who is later found to be infected is not believed to be possible at the time they are asymptomatic. Health workers with exposure should still, out of an abundance of cation, avoid contact with large groups of hard to trace people.

Re: Doctor in New York City Is Sick with Ebola

#80

Post by [deleted] »

kamaal wrote: post #67
wfjackson wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many signs point to the viral load not being highly infectious at the beginning. Duncan was sent back to his home by the hospital and lived with his fiance who was taking care of him for two days before being readmitted. She wore no PPE yet appears to be uninfected. If sitting next to someone infected on a bus or subway is enough to pass it on, there would be a million cases in West Africa by now, not 10K. It appears…

Ebola can spread only after a person begins to show symptoms. And that takes ~21 days. Or putting it straight, for it to spread from one person to another it would take 21 days of period in between getting infected and spreading it to others. Though the growth of number of patients with Ebola is definitely exponential. Please note it takes 21 days for the each multiplication to happen. It started in March and has bee…

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