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Last Time It Was This Crazy, the Stock Market Crashed

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Re: Last Time It Was This Crazy, the Stock Market Crashed

#71
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very interesting. I think that a lot of these companies are dependent on advertizing revenue, but so is both Facebook and Google. I guess one has to see which companies are dependent upon advertizing from start-ups rather than established companies to figure out who is most vulnerable in a downturn -- although you said that overall ad rates decreased during the last correction across the board. I wonder to what degre…

It will be different this time. Last time it felt like the whole internet thing was just a fad, so advertisers went back to their normal channels. But this time they have metrics and probably find that no other advertising channel can compete against online advertising as far as ROI is concerned (well, for many companies).

Last time they had metrics. It was looking at the metrics that made them pull the money.

Re: Last Time It Was This Crazy, the Stock Market Crashed

#72

What's often missing in these discussions is that a lot of the value of the companies is based on the threat they present to actual profitable companies, like Google and Facebook, and has nothing to do with whatever revenue they currently have. The real reason WhatsApp were worth so much is they started to look like an existential threat to Facebook. Similarly for Instagram and SnapChat. Uber will in the long run to…

> The real reason WhatsApp were worth so much is they started to look like an existential threat to Facebook.

I disagree. The real reason were that part of their userbase was using Whatsapp on feature phone. It was as much a tech acquisition as a userbase acquisition. To get to the point Whatsapp was Facebook would have had to, develop the tech _and_ attract the users. In the end, buy whatsapp was faster, less risky (no guaranty they would have been abble to steal/convert the whole Whatsapp userbase) and probably cheaper.

Re: Last Time It Was This Crazy, the Stock Market Crashed

#73
post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because Uber could eventually become a cheaper, easier, crowd-sourced version of "the last mile"[1]. This is a huge threat to the thousands of DHL and UPS delivery folk who make a living shipping parcels in the Last Mile, and to the businesses they belong, which make most of their delivery fees via the Last Mile. Unless Uber (or companies like Shyp) partner with them, it could bring these old business models down. [1…

There's already a cheaper crowd-sourced version of "the last mile" here in the UK. They're called Yodel (formerly the Home Delivery Network), most of their packages are delivered by non-employees using their own cars, lots of big companies like Amazon use them, and they have a really terrible reputation.

We have LaserShip in the US, and they're also terrible (but not crowdsourced).

Re: Last Time It Was This Crazy, the Stock Market Crashed

#75
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It sounds like your issue was a slow phone. Facebook's Messenger app works great for me. I also use Whatsapp daily but prefer the Facebook app. It's a much nicer experience.

I'm indifferent. But when WhatsApp asks me for money, I suspect I'll just start using Facebook Messenger or Google Hangouts instead.

I'm sure they get plenty of money from entities interested in monitoring communications.

Re: Last Time It Was This Crazy, the Stock Market Crashed

#76
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All self-driving cars are a threat to Uber, but it will be a really long time for fully self-driving cars to reach significant penetration, as much as I love them. I think for the next 10 years we will be in the era of smart assisted driving.

1) I actually think self-driving cars are moving faster than expected. Ten years is still a pretty reasonable guess, considering the pace of governments and the auto industry, but we're closer than I thought we'd be by now. 2) Uber will use self-driving cars, probably exclusively as soon as it's legal. Uber wants to be the internet of the physical world. With the internet, information could travel anywhere with the t…

Cool thought, that the Last Mile will soon be commodity-priced and driverless cars will be making deliveries when they're not otherwise occupied. Software eating yet another business.

Providing capital to build a replica of an existing proven business model is easy, you already provided the example: gajillions of hosting companies providing physical hardware for peanuts because a few people had proved the business model worked. The cost of the hardware is amortised over its expected lifetime and any bank will provide the loan.

If this is Uber's future then Travis must be looking to exit before that...

Re: Last Time It Was This Crazy, the Stock Market Crashed

#77
post #53

I've always wondered what pure software startups are doing with millions of dollars. I mean come on you can develop awesome software without having a fancy office, nice furniture and a super high salary. Take me and my friends for example. We love building stuff and work for all our products in university or at home. Also we're doing it for, what, like 400$ a month working 20-30h...

At some point, you will complete school, your friends will go their separate ways and you will lose access to university resources. At that point, you will need a decent salary to pay for living expenses, support a family and all the other things you wish to do in life. If your startup consists of even a handful of people, competitive salaries/benefits start to add up and those "millions" won't seem as much any more.

[deleted]

Re: Last Time It Was This Crazy, the Stock Market Crashed

#78
post #45
post #5

I've recently sold all my long term shareholdings on a similar gut feeling. I wonder what will be the trigger that sets off the selling frenzy this time round?

Looking back we'll find it was this very comment of yours. How do you feel about that ;)

Slightly scared: http://www.theguardian.com/business/blog/2014/oct/16/six-rea...
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