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Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

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Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#71

Post by pbreit »

timdorr wrote: post #51
pbreit wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"After 5 years/70k miles, the battery will probably still be at 95% capacity" No way. I'd say you have 75% tops (probably less with 70k miles). And unless you pre-buy a new battery you're going to be looking at a $20-30k replacement cost. Also note that it will likely be out of warranty at that point. And that Tesla values them at roughly $1 per mile (the price they give you for purchasing a loaner).

The battery replacement cost is $12k for an 85kWh: http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/2013-model-s-price-increase And the retention is closer to 85% at 100k miles: http://www.plugincars.com/tesla-roadster-battery-life-study-... (Keep in mind, the Roadster has a previous generation of battery pack technology)

As I noted, that's the pre-pay cost.

And Tesla itself would disagree as it has stated 70% after 7 years/100k miles.

I'd be careful to compare with the Roadster either way.

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#72

Post by slantyyz »

brk wrote: post #43
slantyyz wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> The Honda Odyssey has some of the cheapest insurance of any car. That depends on where you live. I've been told that my insurance rates (clean record) are high for my 2005 Odyssey because of the area I live in (I live just outside of Toronto, Canada).

Right, but the Odyssey would be cheaper to insure in your area than a Tesla (theoretically). Insurance costs are very localized, but for any 2 vehicles the coverage cost spread between them is probably comparable in any given region. EG: an Odyssey will always be cheaper to insure than a Model S in any specific region, BUT insuring an Odyssey in Toronto might be more expensive than insuring a Model S in Tulsa.

I wasn't disputing the Odyssey's insurance vs. a Tesla, but the claim that "The Honda Odyssey has some of the cheapest insurance of any car."

I pay more for insurance than some people I know who drive newer, more expensive cars.

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#73

Post by js2 »

southphillyman wrote: post #52
js2 wrote: post #30

Just to throw some maintenance numbers out there since I happen to own a 2003 Odyssey with over 170k miles and I've kept track of the costs in a spreadsheet. So far I've spent just under $10k in maintenance. The big annoying charge was ~ $4200 at 110k miles in 2010. The transmission failed, so this charge was for a Honda remanufactured transmission and PCM, plus the 105k maintenance (new timing belt). The other signi…

These are dealership prices I assume. Warrantied work at a third party repair shop would have probably been almost half as expensive. $1K to replace tires and brakes on a honda? Sheesh Credentials: Owner of a 2002 Honda with 210K miles on it currently.

Dealership on the 105k maintenance. Tires/brakes have been a one of the tire chain stores. But yeah, four new Michelins, rotors, pads, brake fluid flush, alignment, taxes, it's $800-$1k.

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#74

Post by pbreit »

epistasis wrote: post #53
pbreit wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"After 5 years/70k miles, the battery will probably still be at 95% capacity" No way. I'd say you have 75% tops (probably less with 70k miles). And unless you pre-buy a new battery you're going to be looking at a $20-30k replacement cost. Also note that it will likely be out of warranty at that point. And that Tesla values them at roughly $1 per mile (the price they give you for purchasing a loaner).

I always wonder where these super-confident statements come from that seem to be contrary to reality. How do you know? Why are you so certain? Where do you pull these numbers from? It seems like a surefire recipe to ruin one's credibility.

I was quoting Tesla.

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#75

Post by analyst74 »

I've also been very interested in true ownership cost of cars, and what I noticed is that for new cars, cost of depreciation overshadows all other costs combined for the first 2~3 years, longer for luxury brands.

So there is no point calculating the TCO of new car over more than 3 years, because if you are OK driving an old car, it's always much cheaper to buy used.

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#76

Post by bryanlarsen »

warfangle wrote: post #49
robomartin wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For some reason I can't quite put my finger on I have been viewing everything that comes out of Tesla with skepticism and distrust. I think it started with the attempt to confuse people with "creative" financing options. I know it is a good company. I was waiting for them to revolutionize the SUV market with a true sports-utility electric vehicle. I would have been in line to buy one. Instead they are putting out a b…

> Instead they are putting out a bullshit Gucci gull-wing contraption that is a total let-down. What's a let-down about it? Legitimately curious.

Easy access to third row seating is a solved problem. But sliding doors aren't "cool". So they either get replaced with over-engineered contraptions like those silly gull wing doors, or even worse, they get replaced with standard doors that pretty much render the third row useless, like most SUV's do. (assuming child seats, which is the bulk of your 3 row market)

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#77

Post by anonhondaowner »

js2 wrote: post #66
mrfusion wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't that early for the transmission to fail?

Yes, but not uncommon for that generation: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honda_Odyssey_(North_America)#T... I probably won't purchase a Honda again.

Yikes. Do you think the 2014's are any better? I wonder if I can extend my warranty beyond 100K?

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#78

Post by NickM »

pbreit wrote: post #71
timdorr wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The battery replacement cost is $12k for an 85kWh: http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/2013-model-s-price-increase And the retention is closer to 85% at 100k miles: http://www.plugincars.com/tesla-roadster-battery-life-study-... (Keep in mind, the Roadster has a previous generation of battery pack technology)

As I noted, that's the pre-pay cost. And Tesla itself would disagree as it has stated 70% after 7 years/100k miles. I'd be careful to compare with the Roadster either way.

Tesla itself would disagree as it has stated 70% after 7 years/100k miles.

Citation? I've never heard of Tesla claiming anything close to that.

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#79

Post by jstultz »

stcredzero wrote: post #65
jstultz wrote: post #59

I'm skeptical of his estimated electricity cost; as a Bay Area resident, $0.12/kwh seemed low, so at first I thought he might be in an area of the country with lower energy costs, but he states he's actually in Silicon Valley. I'm not sure how his particular usage and rates compare, but the rates for my most recent PG&E bill are as follows: $0.13627 for the first 487.20 kWh $0.15491 for the next 146.6 kWh $0.31949 fo…

I'm skeptical of his estimated electricity cost; as a Bay Area resident, $0.12/kwh seemed low, so at first I thought he might be in an area of the country with lower energy costs, but he states he's actually in Silicon Valley. Maybe he lives in Alameda?

Do you mean Alameda county, or actually on Alameda, the island? If the former, I live in Alameda county, so that wouldn't explain it. If Alameda the island, why would costs be lower there? (honest question)

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#80

Post by pjschlic »

Am I missing something here? I tried to use his number to run a net present value assessment of a few example cars and came up with wildly different numbers of NPV. I think a Tesla is cool, but if you are trying to save money by buying a 93k Tesla rather than a 50k BMW, you might not be saving all you think you are (assuming a 3% depreciation factor for future money, I didn't see what he was using, looking only at the year 8 when the car is sold back):

Tesla S85:

[year one] 93,970+8222+1170

[Tax break] -(10000/1.03)

[resale] -(30,160/(1.03^8))

[electricity and maintenance] +(600/1.03)+(1900/1.03)+(600/1.03^2)+(650/1.03^3)+(650/1.03^4)+(1300/1.03^5)+(1300/1.03^6)+(1350/1.03^7)+(1350/1.03^8)

= -78383 NPV

BMW 382d (ICE with greatest depreciation / maintenance):

[Year one] 50000+4480+1200

[Resale] -(15000/(1.03^8))

[Gas and maintenance] +(1594/1.03)+(1631/1.03^2)+(1669/1.03^3)+(1706/1.03^4)+(2288/1.03^5)+(4327/1.03^6)+(2365/1.03^7)+(2404/1.03^8)

= -59385 NPV

Did I make a mistake here?

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