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China’s Deceptively Weak (and Dangerous) Military

thediplomat.com

71–80 of 109 posts

Re: China’s Deceptively Weak (and Dangerous) Military

#71
Chinese here. Wow it's actually hilarious to read how some western people see the PLA exactly the way we see DPRK army.

I have no military experience, but with access to Chinese sources, I feel justified to point out some obvious errors:

> Not to be outdone by the conventional army, China’s powerful strategic rocket troops, the Second Artillery Force, still uses cavalry units to patrol its sprawling missile bases deep within China’s vast interior. Why? Because it doesn’t have any helicopters.

I believe all calvary troops, except a few symbolic ones, are canceled during the "Million Disarmament" in the middle 1980s. The linked gallery should be showing a group of guards of honor or simple soldiers in recreation. They are even equipped with swords; if it's fair to claim that the Second Artillery still use horses for patrolling, it's fair to say they use swords for combat too, which is absurd.

China produces helicopters, for civil or military uses. For instance, this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CAIC_Z-10. They were used extensively during the 2008 Sichuan earthquakes.

> For that reason, the PLA has to engage in constant “political work” at the expense of training for combat. This means that 30 to 40 percent of an officer’s career (or roughly 15 hours per 40-hour work week) is wasted studying CCP propaganda, singing patriotic songs, and conducting small group discussions on Marxist-Leninist theory. And when PLA officers do train, it is almost always a cautious affair that rarely involves risky (i.e., realistic) training scenarios.

This is exaggerating too much. According to the PLA Political Work Regulation (http://www.ljxw.gov.cn/news_detail-3993.html), political work are recommended to be organized "weekly and lasting a half-day", and required to be "no less than twice per month". That is 10% or 5% of working hours. Well, some army officers may be over-enthusiastic about political work and organize such activities very frequently, but that definitely would make him unpopular...

> Yet none of this should be comforting to China’s potential military adversaries. It is precisely China’s military weakness that makes it so dangerous. Take the PLA’s lack of combat experience, for example. A few minor border scraps aside, the PLA hasn’t seen real combat since the Korean War.

Some have already mentioned the Sino-Indian war. There has also been Sino-Vietnamese war (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Vietnamese_War).

The world is relatively peaceful today, and the troops of most big nations have not fighted big wars for many decades. Except for USA which actively provokes wars.

> The Chinese military is dangerous in another way as well. Recognizing that it will never be able to compete with the U.S. and its allies using traditional methods of war fighting, the PLA has turned to unconventional “asymmetric” first-strike weapons and capabilities to make up for its lack of conventional firepower, professionalism and experience.

From a purely cultural POV, western and Chinese militarists may have vastly different ideas of "traditional methods of war fighting". Saying that the (supposed) enemy will not obeys the "traditional rules" sounds like an excuse of not actually trying to understand them.

Re: China’s Deceptively Weak (and Dangerous) Military

#72
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a reason for this: so that the Army (or any of the other British institutions that nominally have the Queen at the top of their org charts) can't be politicized. That's the theory anyway, tho' New Labour tried their best to stuff the civil service and the BBC with their cronies. So when the PM of the day says "go and shoot the leader of the opposition" the soldier or marine or policeman can say "sorry mate,…

As far as I can tell, the status of the armed forces in the UK is rather complex - they do indeed report to the monarch in her/his capacity as commander-in-chief but they only legally exists because of Parliament repeatedly passing Armed Forces Acts every 5 years or so to legalize them otherwise they would be illegal under the 1689 Bill of Rights: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_of_Rights_1689 Also worth noting tha…

And yet, the Army is comprised of the Royal Artillery, Royal Engineers, Royal Signals, Royal Armoured Corps, etc etc etc.

Re: China’s Deceptively Weak (and Dangerous) Military

#73
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As far as I can tell, the status of the armed forces in the UK is rather complex - they do indeed report to the monarch in her/his capacity as commander-in-chief but they only legally exists because of Parliament repeatedly passing Armed Forces Acts every 5 years or so to legalize them otherwise they would be illegal under the 1689 Bill of Rights: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_of_Rights_1689 Also worth noting tha…

And yet, the Army is comprised of the Royal Artillery, Royal Engineers, Royal Signals, Royal Armoured Corps, etc etc etc.

British traditions - who says they have to make sense!

Re: China’s Deceptively Weak (and Dangerous) Military

#74
Obvious Western propaganda piece is propaganda. And like the best sort of propaganda has enough kernels of truth to be dangerous.

China's military is optimized for maintaining internal stability and national unity. A civil war is the worst case scenario for China's leadership. You don't need a deep water navy, or a massive air force to achieve this goal. You need a massive tier-2 riot police force with some heavy hardware to augment when things really get out of control.

Along with almost no practical combat experience beyond internal stability operations, the PLA is simply not optimized for engagements outside of the national borders. There's pitifully few deployable logistics units.

However, on the few times China has chosen to mobilize against neighbors, the PLA has shown an ability to move truly unbelievable number of soldiers moderate distances away from the border.

There's also some debate if the PLA acquitted themselves better during the Korean War than during the later Sino-Vietnamese war. I think there's something to that, the end of the Chinese Civil War wasn't all that long before that, and it's likely that veterans of that conflict were in field command positions during the Korean War, but were not in the Sino-Vietnamese war. The outcome of the Sino-Indian war (1962) also probably falls at the career end of the same veteran commanders. In fact, China was at it's most muscular directly following the end of the Civil war (Tibet, Korea, India all between 1950 and 1962). The Soviet border conflict and the Sino-Vietnamese war, which were almost a decade later were not great victories for the PLA.

If that trend is true, the modern non-combat honed PLA may be lacking in critical modern battlefield experience. But it doesn't take a terribly long time for a military to gain that experience and capture it for a few years. Any conflict with the PLA, even if it started poorly for the PLA, would likely turn around not long after.

A friend of mine says that China is historically does not psychologically act in an outwardly facing expansionist way. It simply looks inward to admire itself, and sometimes to get a better view of the Middle Kingdom, steps backwards a few steps into somebody else's territory.

What remains to be seen, is if China's new economic policy creates a golden period of internal stability, if that gives military planners more time to regear and reoptimize the PLA for external conflicts rather than internal peace keeping. Right now, it's too distracted by domestic issues to really do this whole heartedly. But with a massive industrial capacity, I would predict that if such a shift were to occur, the world would be blindsided with how quickly that shift would happen.

Re: China’s Deceptively Weak (and Dangerous) Military

#75
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to the linked wikipedia article in the parent comment http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Indian_War#Events_leading_... I'm confused what you mean about "blatant abuse of Indian trust." It throws pretty much everything else you say into question.

India has always felt that they had an understanding with China about the border. However they ignore the fact that China felt threatened by Soviet/Indian friendship. Often they blame Nehru for being naïve, whilst at the same time blaming China for betrayal. I don't think those two arguments are very compatible. In the end it was probably beneficial for India. They modernised their army, which let them defeat (Chines…

Every country by default assumes that they have an understanding with neighbours about it's borders. Of Course that doesn't stop anybody from trying to grab a piece.

As far as the two arguments go, I don't see the incompatibility. Can you share your thoughts about this?

Chinese approach was rather brute force, they just poured a lot of soldiers there, far from efficient.

Re: China’s Deceptively Weak (and Dangerous) Military

#76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am given to understand that British soldiers entering the army swear their allegiance to the Queen, not to the constitution nor the population. So?

The British don't have a constitution to swear on.

Yes, they do. It just is not codified in a single document.

Re: China’s Deceptively Weak (and Dangerous) Military

#77
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does exactly make it a "backward tradition"? That you have other ideas about how things should be?

It's self-evidently backwards .. ---------- We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. - US Declaration of Independence (while the USA is by no means perfect, there's hardly a more "perfect" and succinct expression of human rights than that)

As an expression of human rights, the above quote by itself is useless - it is far too vague. A lot of people would argue that the above is totally incompatible even with the US form of government, for example

Re: China’s Deceptively Weak (and Dangerous) Military

#78
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's backward because it's not representative democracy. It's inherited political power. Even if you don't believe they have real power, it's still offensive to anyone that believes in representative democracy and selecting their leadership. Englishman here. If we had ousted the monarchy 100 years ago, I'm absolutely certain that today, it would have been considered a good thing and we'd have a yearly celebration abo…

Then to who or what to allegiance be sworn? Can you imagine the horror if someone like Tony Blair was personally in charge of the military?

Don't you guys have a constitution?

Re: China’s Deceptively Weak (and Dangerous) Military

#79
post #37

ah yes, the good ol' yellow peril two-step. weak, yet dangerous. smart, yet uninnovative. studious, yet aggressive. ubiquitous, yet surreptitious. industrious, yet backwards. cultured, yet barbaric. coy, yet brave. did i miss any?

I believe that you missed this (the actual point of the article): capable of starting a devastating war, but not, ultimately, of winning.

no, i absolutely did not miss the point. nearly anybody worth studying militarily, whether a state or non-state actor, is capable of that. 12 guys with plane tickets started the last one. tell the millions of dead people that war wasn't devastating.

Re: China’s Deceptively Weak (and Dangerous) Military

#80
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am given to understand that British soldiers entering the army swear their allegiance to the Queen, not to the constitution nor the population. So?

The UK has no constitution.

Yes, it does. Just not one codified in a single document.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitution_of_the_United_King...

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