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The end of the Facebook era

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Re: The end of the Facebook era

#71

Post by scelerat »

VLM wrote: post #53

"What was cool in the 70s wasn’t cool in the 80s." Its very important he phrased it that way, because bell bottoms had another day in the sun. Happily young women wearing skin tight spandex/yoga pants from the 90s had another day in the 10s. Its difficult to find a womens fashion fad that doesn't repeat every 20-ish years. The endless rotating wheel of fashion and fads doesn't rotate at a speed of 1 rotation per deca…

I'm unaware of communications and technological trends falling into cycles like sartorial fashion.

You can use a 20-, 30-, or 50-year-old scarf or jacket you find in a thrift store, but not a phone or a computer. And very few people would want to.

Re: The end of the Facebook era

#72

Post by scarecrowbob »

owenmarshall wrote: post #66
crazygringo wrote: post #60

> Teens likely see Facebook the same way the Facebook generation sees LinkedIn – like a utilitarian place to manage connections. I've heard it a billion times that teens aren't using Facebook. But who cares ? I just don't see any evidence that this heralds the end of Facebook. It's not necessarily any more meaningful than "people ages 65-70 don't use Facebook". It's a small percentage of the population. And there's n…

> It's not necessarily any more meaningful than "people ages 65-70 don't use Facebook". From an advertising perspective, there's a massive gulf between "teens don't use Facebook" and "senior citizens don't use Facebook". To put it flippantly: one group is headed into a coveted demographic, the other group buys denture paste. That's not to say that Facebook wouldn't do fine even if the only people that used it were "u…

I don't think that "advertisers" are as homogenous as you portray them here; generally, they have specific products that they are marketing to specific demographics, which sometimes includes denture paste.

Re: The end of the Facebook era

#73

Post by the_watcher »

boomzilla wrote: post #64
Jhsto wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'am 18 and I agree with you. The way the discussion one day happened in status updates have now moved to usually hidden groups. The groups are usually built around some specific event, say prams, or alternatively around some common interest such as LAN gaming or binge drinking. It works as a new and more appealing way to create what you may consider mailing lists. Engaging in those groups is easier as you post somet…

Great, welcome to the age of bulletin board.

>> welcome to the age of bulletin board.

Facebook was created as an online replacement for something that had been around in physical form for a long time. Welcome to Facebook.

Re: The end of the Facebook era

#74

Post by freyr »

crazygringo wrote: post #60

> Teens likely see Facebook the same way the Facebook generation sees LinkedIn – like a utilitarian place to manage connections. I've heard it a billion times that teens aren't using Facebook. But who cares ? I just don't see any evidence that this heralds the end of Facebook. It's not necessarily any more meaningful than "people ages 65-70 don't use Facebook". It's a small percentage of the population. And there's n…

> And there's no indication that teens are using something else that will replace Facebook when they're in their 20's and 30's -- you can't organize parties on Instagram or Snapchat.

Today's teens do not use Facebook as much as teens did in the past. That's a fact. Will they use it more once they're in their 30s? That's pure speculation on your part, which is completely unsubstantiated, and we'll have to wait one or two decades to find out. I tend not to put a lot of weight in unsubstantiated technology predictions spanning decades.

In any case, if Facebook is transitioning from a site that is used by lots of people for long periods of time (which it was), to a calendar/contacts app that people check into occasionally and briefly (which it has become for me, and apparently others as well), that's a glaring problem for their business model. Even if they remain the absolute best party organizing site on the web for years to come, that's probably not good enough to support their current revenue model.

> Every indication is that teens get onto Facebook once they stop being teens, correct me if I'm wrong.

You're just making up a random fact to support your case, and leaving the burden on the reader to substantiate your claims, correct me if I'm wrong.

> I mean, I don't remember Facebook ever being cool ... Why people are suddenly constantly talking about this "lack of cool" is beyond me.

Facebook was cool. When it began launching in colleges around the country, "cool" kids (particularly fraternity and sorority members) were early adopters. Shortly thereafter, everybody on campus was using it and Myspace became a joke.

> It's always been pretty drab, a pretty bland boring blue, with an interface much like an OS.

If you're looking to the interface to figure out if it was, you're looking in the wrong place. But for the record, Facebook's interface was much, much cooler than the eyesore that was Myspace.

Re: The end of the Facebook era

#75

Post by VintageCool »

melling wrote: post #20

Here are some titles for the next story. "The end of the Apple era" "The end of the Microsoft era" "The end of the Netflix era" "The end of the Yahoo era" Seriously, why do people waste time writing these types of stories? My guess is that it's because it's so much easier than actually trying to build something of value. The real problem is there is no penalty for being wrong. Everyone simply forgets. Write a thousan…

I have a title for the previous story:

"the end of the Microsoft era"

http://www.paulgraham.com/microsoft.html

Re: The end of the Facebook era

#76

Post by basch »

cdcarter wrote: post #62
crazygringo wrote: post #60

> Teens likely see Facebook the same way the Facebook generation sees LinkedIn – like a utilitarian place to manage connections. I've heard it a billion times that teens aren't using Facebook. But who cares ? I just don't see any evidence that this heralds the end of Facebook. It's not necessarily any more meaningful than "people ages 65-70 don't use Facebook". It's a small percentage of the population. And there's n…

> you can't organize parties on Instagram or Snapchat You can. Beyond that, the interesting part is the sentence you yourself quoted. It's utilitarian, it's contact management, it's messaging, but it's not a primary source of content and engagement within the demo, and that's by it's own virtue interesting.

Well facebook owns instagram, so in reality, they are probably perfectly ok with teens using instagram over facebook.

Re: The end of the Facebook era

#77

Post by jseliger »

chasing wrote: post #22
wpietri wrote: post #15

Very interesting. A few years back, I was fascinated to see how much Facebook had become the native medium for the whippersnappers. Some of our interns thought of email like I thought of fax machines. But even if Facebook is prone to stumble, I'd encourage entrepreneurs not to try to be the "next Facebook". As I wrote elsewhere [1]: "Honestly, there probably won't be a 'next Facebook', for the same reason there hasn'…

Wasn't Facebook the "next Friendster?" I feel like it was actually a relative latecomer to the social networking party of the early '00s. Not to diss FB or their achievement, but it certainly felt like an evolution rather than a revolution upon launch. Only once they built up steam did it really begin to become an entirely new sort of beast. Same with Google, no? I feel like they entered a crowded market of search en…

Wasn't Facebook the "next Friendster?" I feel like it was actually a relative latecomer to the social networking party of the early '00s.

A lot of industries also have early periods of extreme tumult, then greater stability as firms consolidated and success becomes more obvious and definable. Think about cars: it's become a commonplace that Detroit was the Silicon Valley of its day, but eventually a few car makers became dominant. When, say, GM first emerged, it might have seemed to observers that another rival would rise to take out GM—which didn't really happen until decades later.

Facebook may be the first of the "mature" social networks that isn't almost immediately superseded by something dramatically better. The fact that it now has so much lock-in inertia indicates that it may be with us for much longer than its day-to-day critics believe.

Re: The end of the Facebook era

#78

Post by Kequc »

selmnoo wrote: post #34
melling wrote: post #20

Here are some titles for the next story. "The end of the Apple era" "The end of the Microsoft era" "The end of the Netflix era" "The end of the Yahoo era" Seriously, why do people waste time writing these types of stories? My guess is that it's because it's so much easier than actually trying to build something of value. The real problem is there is no penalty for being wrong. Everyone simply forgets. Write a thousan…

Why. Why must you do this. Why must you dismiss articles on hackneyed grounds and kill the chance for an interesting discussion about the nature and direction of social technologies. I thought this article was very interesting, it brought to light several factual points, and several not-heard-before insights -- e.g., I thought this in particular was very true and interesting: This is why social networks, like Google+…

> social has never been Google's forte has it.

It hasn't been anybody's forte except for facebook by that standard. On the contrary g+ is far better than facebook by any measurement you choose to use, it isn't missing anything. A supportive user base mostly absent only in the minds of people vehemently dying for it to be absent. These people who repeat the idea that using google for social networking is the worst thing they've ever heard or thought about. The technology is still sound, meanwhile.

Re: The end of the Facebook era

#79

Post by owenmarshall »

scarecrowbob wrote: post #72
owenmarshall wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's not necessarily any more meaningful than "people ages 65-70 don't use Facebook". From an advertising perspective, there's a massive gulf between "teens don't use Facebook" and "senior citizens don't use Facebook". To put it flippantly: one group is headed into a coveted demographic, the other group buys denture paste. That's not to say that Facebook wouldn't do fine even if the only people that used it were "u…

I don't think that "advertisers" are as homogenous as you portray them here; generally, they have specific products that they are marketing to specific demographics, which sometimes includes denture paste.

Indeed, but it's no secret that most mainstream advertising skews towards a much younger demographic.

It's very possible to have success marketing denture paste and products to older people. But if Facebook does hemorrhage teens, advertisers will take notice. And right now Facebook is advertising. That's going to have an impact.

Re: The end of the Facebook era

#80

Post by Segmentation »

crazygringo wrote: post #60

> Teens likely see Facebook the same way the Facebook generation sees LinkedIn – like a utilitarian place to manage connections. I've heard it a billion times that teens aren't using Facebook. But who cares ? I just don't see any evidence that this heralds the end of Facebook. It's not necessarily any more meaningful than "people ages 65-70 don't use Facebook". It's a small percentage of the population. And there's n…

I've wondered, when articles write "teens aren't using Facebook" -- are they referring to young college students (17-19) or are they referring to middle/high schoolers?

Facebook was originally college-only, and high schoolers tend to emulate college students more than the other way around (in fact, I doubt any college student follows high school trends), therefore my guess is what Facebook is actually losing is young college students..? If they're losing high school students.. who cares.

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