All successful startups are lucky, but they're never just lucky. If they were, we could save ourselves a lot of work reading applications and doing interviews. We could just pick randomly instead. If we did that for one batch, you'd really be able to tell the difference, believe me.
What if successful startups are just lucky?
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Re: What if successful startups are just lucky?
#72there is definitely an element of "luck" (timing, what other actors in the relevant space are doing, etc.)
but the way you hedge against that is by exposing yourself to lots of things with a potential net upside. both in parallel and serially. you might have bad luck with one thing, then good luck with another thing. just like the reasoning behind YC-style investment bets, it only takes one of your little bets to pay off huge in order to more than make up for all the other little failures. which leads to the other complimentary tactic: minimize your spend (money,time,energy) you're willing to risk on any given thing before you see an ROI from it. Also, you never have to completely give up on a thing --- in the software/digital world especially you don't have to destroy/delete/throwaway things, you simply passivate them (put on the backburner), press Pause, etc.
Re: What if successful startups are just lucky?
#73Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's not random in the sense that "anybody who tries has an equal chance at success." The prior you're missing is a person's ability, current mind, and biological mental capacity. Some people are just waaaaaaaaay smarter than other people. "All people are created equal" is a fantasy when you reach extremes (sport abilities, mental abilities, creative abilities). Now, once you have a baseline genius startup mind, no s…
"That's not saying you can't be rich. Anybody can always get dumb success (especially these days) with things like advertising or affiliates or ebooks." People that are doing this should speakup but I don't believe "anybody" can do the above. Your statement is general to a certain extent and could apply to many areas but I don't think successful people in these areas are any less smart, hardworking, determined than s…
I know people who write really low quality populist fiction on the Amazon Kindle store and bring in over $3k/month. Over time, the old books still sell, so you have recurring revenue that gets compounded as time goes on.
There are other examples, but that's the easiest to understand.
Re: What if successful startups are just lucky?
#74If startups are luck, you should found as many as possible.
Re: What if successful startups are just lucky?
#75All successful startups are lucky, but they're never just lucky. If they were, we could save ourselves a lot of work reading applications and doing interviews. We could just pick randomly instead. If we did that for one batch, you'd really be able to tell the difference, believe me.
Why not try it? http://www.investorhome.com/darts.htm
Re: What if successful startups are just lucky?
#76All successful startups are lucky, but they're never just lucky. If they were, we could save ourselves a lot of work reading applications and doing interviews. We could just pick randomly instead. If we did that for one batch, you'd really be able to tell the difference, believe me.
Spot on. I think it's important to mention the context of Taleb's philosophy. You have to keep in mind that in certain jobs, like trading, it is fairly plausible that successful traders are plain lucky because all traders eventually blow up. In the startup world, this analogy doesn't hold for a number of reasons. If you are genuinely skilled, you will succeed. Perhaps not on the first try, but you will succeed eventually.
Re: What if successful startups are just lucky?
#77All successful startups are lucky, but they're never just lucky. If they were, we could save ourselves a lot of work reading applications and doing interviews. We could just pick randomly instead. If we did that for one batch, you'd really be able to tell the difference, believe me.
Spot on. I think it's important to mention the context of Taleb's philosophy. You have to keep in mind that in certain jobs, like trading, it is fairly plausible that successful traders are plain lucky because all traders eventually blow up. In the startup world, this analogy doesn't hold for a number of reasons. If you are genuinely skilled, you will succeed. Perhaps not on the first try, but you will succeed eventu…
The crucial difference might be that the finance world is zero-sum while the startup world (wealth creation) is positive-sum.
Re: What if successful startups are just lucky?
#78A start founders charisma points must be very high. You have to get others(co-founders, future employees, investors, ealry customers) to believe in your vision. And I'm not sure that's teachable. But, there are many ways to pull it off.
Re: What if successful startups are just lucky?
#79This meme is particularly viral among game devs. They say "Notch was lucky", but what they really mean is that Minecraft resonated with the market more than they can comprehend. They say "my game failed, and I can't see why, so I must be unlucky", rather than saying "my game failed, because people didn't like it more than the alternatives".
Short of people being forced to purchase it, the only thing that makes a product successful is when people want it. How the product stands on its own merits is dependent on customers knowing about it, and choosing it over the alternatives.
When it comes to games, works in the same genre may not even be competing against each other because of the way gamers buy games. Plenty of gamers will buy Battlefield AND Call of Duty, or will buy Minecraft AND all of its derivative clones. They just won't buy things they don't want.
MMORPGs in the same genre, though, are often competing against each other. People can only play so many MMORPGs because of the time and social aspects.
Re: What if successful startups are just lucky?
#80All successful startups are lucky, but they're never just lucky. If they were, we could save ourselves a lot of work reading applications and doing interviews. We could just pick randomly instead. If we did that for one batch, you'd really be able to tell the difference, believe me.
I think the OP's point is after filtering out obviously non-successful startups, the chance of success is potentially non-correlated with other "traits", "characteristics", or "metrics" etc. that people often associate with successful startups/founders.
It would be an interesting experiment if YC lower the acceptance threshold to say twice the original batch, and randomly pick from that bigger pool, and see if there's any difference between the ones that didn't make the original cut and those did. (A/B in its finest :)