Are you sure Google's big enough in China to have an impact? http://www.chinainternetwatch.com/4371/search-engine-market-... Even worse, that's by revenue, not searches: http://www.chinainternetwatch.com/3809/china-search-engine-m... 3% of search is a blip. [EDIT: Fixed the links mangled by cut-n-paste from other thread]
Did you even read the article? Eric talks about how American designed encryption paradigms will eventually introduce free speech that cannot be stopped or surveilled even in places like China. What Google's search market shares have to do with that concept is beyond me, though.
The premise relies on Google being irreplaceable to the Chinese economy.
We are gambling with Google’s stack that
they are big enough and important enough
that the Chinese authorities would not
dare block it in mainland China completely.
However, that isn't supported by the data - Google's market share. If Google did something which the government truly objected to, such as offering encrypted proxies (which encrypted search is), then they could block the entire domain and only affect the portion of their population that uses it.Market share is a good proxy to measure that population, and it's 3%.
I'm not convinced that 3% is large enough to cause the government to give up.