The first Bitcoin post on HN • Hacker News Board

Re: The first Bitcoin post on HN

#71

Post by fragsworth » Tue, Nov 19, 2013, 5:01 PM UTC

Joeri wrote: post #41

sentenza wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But it is not that black and white, is it? While it is quite clear that Bitcoin has "value" as long as people are willing to trade it (i.e., indefinitely), there is still no reason to assume that it will ever stop having these extreme fluctuations. To the contrary, I'd say that, as time progresses, we observe Bitcoin having the same problems that the gold standard had, mixed with an additional proneness to speculatio…

The value of a currency lies entirely in the perception of that value. I don't consider bitcoin different from a traditional currency, except that its rate of production is known in advance. It will keep having value because by now enough people think it does.

It's in a strange position right now, though. Its value is not based on anything that makes any sense. Public perception - yes - but public perception of what? Nothing is priced in bitcoin.

Once things begin to be priced in bitcoin, proponents hope its value will stabilize. This might happen. It did with fiat, but fiat had the advantage of a stable start and slow detachment from gold.

The real funny thing to me is, I believe the currency could do its job just as well no matter what the value per bitcoin. And I don't think volatility matters at all, because companies like BitPay assume the volatility risk for you (both the merchant and the consumer)

I don't know that bitcoin can be used as a store of value, especially for future adopters. But it is definitely a great method for real transactions of wealth.

Re: The first Bitcoin post on HN

#72

Post by xixi77 » Tue, Nov 19, 2013, 5:02 PM UTC

Luc wrote: post #53

Sambdala wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's really easy to be right >90% of the time, if 100% of the time you predict a new technology will fail.

There's hedge funds that systematically short biotech companies, since they estimate most of them will fail. Reasoning with them about the merits of the company doesn't work, they just admit it's a matter of statistics.

Assuming that "most of them would fail" has little to do with this investment strategy being good or bad. Venture capitalists also assume that most of the companies they fund would fail.

What the hedge funds you are talking about assume is that investors in biotech companies value them more than they are worth. It may sound similar to what you said, but really is a very different assumption.

Re: The first Bitcoin post on HN

#73

Post by steven2012 » Tue, Nov 19, 2013, 5:03 PM UTC

Can someone explain how the idea that every single transaction has to be stored in the ledger is scalable? Won't wider adoption mean that the ledger grows even quicker, to the point where it makes using btc harder and harder?

Re: The first Bitcoin post on HN

#74

Post by jafaku » Tue, Nov 19, 2013, 5:05 PM UTC

onebaddude wrote: post #61

mkr-hn wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's faith among fans of the currency. Others are interested , but that's a long way from faith.

Exactly. I was a bit taken aback that the tone of this submission was, "See! Bitcoing worked !" Uh, no one outside of a few small circles has any idea what it is. And any currency as volatile as Bitcoin is broken.

That's like saying populations or startup stocks are broken. Do you think Facebook had a very smooth, progressive, and always upward growth? The stabilization comes at the end of the S curve.

And Bitcoin isn't just a currency, it's a lot of things. One of them is a store of wealth, like gold, and it's doing wonders in that role.

Re: The first Bitcoin post on HN

#75

Post by pg » Tue, Nov 19, 2013, 5:11 PM UTC

How much money would you have made if you'd bought $1000 worth of bitcoin on that day?

Re: The first Bitcoin post on HN

#76

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Nov 19, 2013, 5:14 PM UTC

vinhboy wrote: post #18

It's really not fair to dig these things up and call people haters for doubting it. I bet the list of failed companies and "haters" who called it accurately is much much bigger. Although I do like the nostalgic value of these posts.

[deleted]

Re: The first Bitcoin post on HN

#77

Post by tlrobinson » Tue, Nov 19, 2013, 5:15 PM UTC

I'd like to see a "where are they now" of the commenters' views on Bitcoin.

Re: The first Bitcoin post on HN

#78

Post by crystaln » Tue, Nov 19, 2013, 5:16 PM UTC

Likely the best investment opportunity ever posted on HN, possibly in the history of the world, for simple buy/mine and hold ROI.

Re: The first Bitcoin post on HN

#79

Post by walden42 » Tue, Nov 19, 2013, 5:19 PM UTC

pg wrote: post #75

How much money would you have made if you'd bought $1000 worth of bitcoin on that day?

At today's rate... millions.

Re: The first Bitcoin post on HN

#80

Post by cfinke » Tue, Nov 19, 2013, 5:20 PM UTC

pg wrote: post #75

How much money would you have made if you'd bought $1000 worth of bitcoin on that day?

The earliest price I can find for BTC is $0.074 USD/BTC from about a year later, but if you bought $1000 then, you'd be sitting on about $9.7MM worth of Bitcoin today.