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Without Babies, Can Japan Survive?

nytimes.com

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Re: Without Babies, Can Japan Survive?

#71

Post by maratd »

yummyfajitas wrote: post #60
maratd wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is wrong on a profound level. GDP is Gross Domestic Product. In other words, all the goods and services produced. The price level and quantity are deeply tied to demand and for most goods/services, demand is tied to the population. More people means more goods/services sold at a higher quantity and price. Economic growth is largely population growth. The Japanese economic stagnation is largely caused by their po…

More people means more goods/services sold at a higher quantity and price. Can you explain why more people causes price to go up? Quantity will certainly go up, but only in proportion to population, thus having no net effect on GDP per capita.

> Can you explain why more people causes price to go up?

Sure. As you know, price is the intersection of supply and demand. An increase in a population is, in economic terms, an increase in demand. This will cause the price level to increase.

Over time, supply will increase to match the new demand level, but to what extent and more importantly, the time frame involved, will be dependent on the good/service in question. The supply for some goods and especially most services, isn't easily increased. There is a finite number of lawyers, doctors, etc. to provide services and it take time to train more. Regulations get in the way, licensing, etc. And, of course, there are pressures on the raw materials used to manufacture goods.

Re: Without Babies, Can Japan Survive?

#72

Post by greenyoda »

tomjen3 wrote: post #47
eriksank wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, the problem won't be for just one generation. If the birthrate remains the same, the same problem will repeat itself generation after generation. One child per woman means: 32 - 16 - 8 - 4 - 2 - 1. Furthermore, it seems no problem to cut the birthrate, but virtually impossible to push it up again.

Virtually impossible? Hardly. One generation where the average is 10 children per woman will boost the economy and permanently change the demographics; it may sound completely unrealistic, but it was the norm only a few generations ago. And no, it didn't end when a lot of the children stopped dying in childbirth, as my grandfather had something like 8 brothers, and all of them made it into adulthood just fine.

It's biologically possible, but not economically possible. What would convince a couple who don't think they could afford to raise even a single child today suddenly decide that they could afford to raise ten children?

Re: Without Babies, Can Japan Survive?

#73

Post by greenyoda »

btilly wrote: post #17

These demographic trends are, unfortunately, only temporary. From the point of view of evolution, birth control is a disaster. I have done exactly the activity evolution has programmed me to do to continue the species, regularly, for over 20 years. Only twice did it result in children, and both times were conscious choices on my part. However evolution knows how to face these disasters. There is a small minority of p…

It's not really evolution, strictly speaking, unless you believe that the choice to avoid using birth control is somehow determined by a person's genes.

Re: Without Babies, Can Japan Survive?

#74

Post by JoeAltmaier »

greenyoda wrote: post #73
btilly wrote: post #17

These demographic trends are, unfortunately, only temporary. From the point of view of evolution, birth control is a disaster. I have done exactly the activity evolution has programmed me to do to continue the species, regularly, for over 20 years. Only twice did it result in children, and both times were conscious choices on my part. However evolution knows how to face these disasters. There is a small minority of p…

It's not really evolution, strictly speaking, unless you believe that the choice to avoid using birth control is somehow determined by a person's genes.

Cultural evolution? Cultures certainly behave like organisms. A culture of birth control could easily get out of hand and exterminate the group the espoused it. E.g. Shakers.

Re: Without Babies, Can Japan Survive?

#75

Post by greenyoda »

btilly wrote: post #64
zeteo wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Both of you are missing something important. A population with a high birthrate will only achieve that dominance if the children remain in that population. Great-great-grandparent: > Secular culture has managed to peel away many of their kids in recent decades but [...] that process is about to change

Point. However I, personally, see no sign of that process changing. Popular culture does not have to be good to pull away the children of religious people. It merely has to be attractive. And popular culture is constantly, relentlessly, optimizing for shallow attractiveness.

It doesn't even have to be attractive. It just has to be less oppressive than the religious culture.

Re: Without Babies, Can Japan Survive?

#76

Post by yummyfajitas »

maratd wrote: post #71
yummyfajitas wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

More people means more goods/services sold at a higher quantity and price. Can you explain why more people causes price to go up? Quantity will certainly go up, but only in proportion to population, thus having no net effect on GDP per capita.

> Can you explain why more people causes price to go up? Sure. As you know, price is the intersection of supply and demand. An increase in a population is, in economic terms, an increase in demand. This will cause the price level to increase. Over time, supply will increase to match the new demand level, but to what extent and more importantly, the time frame involved, will be dependent on the good/service in questio…

So you are postulating a world where more people compete for a fixed set of goods and services? Sounds like a Malthusian nightmare.

Of course, in this world price goes up but quantity remains flat (in gross terms, not per capita). Real GDP per capita drops even if inflation drives up nominal GDP per capita.

Re: Without Babies, Can Japan Survive?

#77

Post by btilly »

greenyoda wrote: post #73
btilly wrote: post #17

These demographic trends are, unfortunately, only temporary. From the point of view of evolution, birth control is a disaster. I have done exactly the activity evolution has programmed me to do to continue the species, regularly, for over 20 years. Only twice did it result in children, and both times were conscious choices on my part. However evolution knows how to face these disasters. There is a small minority of p…

It's not really evolution, strictly speaking, unless you believe that the choice to avoid using birth control is somehow determined by a person's genes.

Weaker than that. Not determined, but just affected.

As a random example it is known that genes play a big role in causing ADHD, which is associated with a variety of risky behaviors, which might conceivably be correlated with increased reproduction rates.

If ADHD people has kids 10% faster than the rest of the population, then in something 30 generations, we'd expect over half the population to have ADHD. That's about 750 years. (I do not know if this is the case with ADHD. I'm throwing it out as a random example. For all I know there is no real difference. Or, in the presence of birth control, a 20% difference.)

It isn't just ADHD, though. Every possible genetically determined characteristic that limits how effectively birth control prevents you from having children is now being aggressively selected for. All else remaining equal, in a few hundred years we are likely to see significant behavior shifts in our species.

Re: Without Babies, Can Japan Survive?

#78

Post by maratd »

yummyfajitas wrote: post #76
maratd wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Can you explain why more people causes price to go up? Sure. As you know, price is the intersection of supply and demand. An increase in a population is, in economic terms, an increase in demand. This will cause the price level to increase. Over time, supply will increase to match the new demand level, but to what extent and more importantly, the time frame involved, will be dependent on the good/service in questio…

So you are postulating a world where more people compete for a fixed set of goods and services? Sounds like a Malthusian nightmare. Of course, in this world price goes up but quantity remains flat (in gross terms, not per capita). Real GDP per capita drops even if inflation drives up nominal GDP per capita.

> So you are postulating a world where more people compete for a fixed set of goods and services?

Is that what I said? I thought I said there's a delay between an increase in demand and an increase in supply, which results in an increase in the price level. In a world of constantly increasing demand you have a constantly increasing price level. In other words, real inflation.

In a world of stagnating population growth, you'll have stagflation at best, and deflation at worst. Guess what's happening in Japan?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deflation#In_Japan

Re: Without Babies, Can Japan Survive?

#79

Post by yummyfajitas »

maratd wrote: post #78
yummyfajitas wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So you are postulating a world where more people compete for a fixed set of goods and services? Sounds like a Malthusian nightmare. Of course, in this world price goes up but quantity remains flat (in gross terms, not per capita). Real GDP per capita drops even if inflation drives up nominal GDP per capita.

> So you are postulating a world where more people compete for a fixed set of goods and services? Is that what I said? I thought I said there's a delay between an increase in demand and an increase in supply, which results in an increase in the price level. In a world of constantly increasing demand you have a constantly increasing price level. In other words, real inflation. In a world of stagnating population growt…

You were describing a world in which regulatory and material constraints prevent growth in supply to meet demand. As a simplified model, consider an economy consisting of only medical services (one of your supplied examples). Then:

Real GDP per capita = gross medical services provided / population

If population goes up but gross medical services stay flat, real gdp per capita falls. Nominal GDP per capita can rise of the elasticity of demand of medical services is greater than one.

Being temporary just means that real GDP per capita will eventually reach it's previous level - a temporary Malthusian nightmare rather than a permanent one.

Re: Without Babies, Can Japan Survive?

#80

Post by captaintacos »

kfk wrote: post #24
captaintacos wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Immigration "would be" the best solution but we are talking about Japan in here. Not an "immigrant friendly" country like Canada, Australia or the US. Simply put... Japan is "allergic" to foreigners. Surprisingly the process to get a work/student visa in Japan is much more easier than in Australia or the US (I've applied to one or another in all these countries and it's such a breeze to do in Japan). Despite that, im…

Hi, when you say "open", you mean also for workers? Do you have any potential advice for somebody looking for a job over there?

Yes, quite open for -skilled- workers and even more open to students. I emphasize the "skilled" part because trust me, you don't want to come all the way here to engage in low-skilled labor. Highly skilled work is already too life-consuming enough. However I don't know how the construction sector would be, it is the equivalent of the American military industry (i.e. that's where they will throw ridiculous amounts of money whenever they want to "stimulate the economy") and with the LDP winning the elections yesterday the pouring of concrete all over Japan will go back to usual.

If it is skilled work, I recall any undergraduate degree overseas plus a job offer are the main requirements you need to get a work visa. Yes, no need to wait for a space to open as is the case with the H1 visa in the US. And I think this year the process got even easier.

To get a contract, well, if you can speak Japanese then you are halfway there. If you can't, I can suggest:

1. The companies that seem to be hungry for IT/software engineers (judging from the amount of spam I get from recruiters), may take your from whenever you are, and where probably Japanese language skills are not important are: GREE, Rakuten, Amazon Japan. I think you can apply to those through their websites.

2. Message me so I give you a list of recruiting companies that seem to specialize in foreigners in Japan.

3. Some people recommend checking out www.gaijinpot.com from time to time.

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