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The original URL for this prediction will no longer be available in 11 years (2011)

longbets.org

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Re: The original URL for this prediction will no longer be available in 11 years (2011)

#71

Post by pinum »

CSMastermind wrote: post #18

It's worth noting that some prediction URLs, for instance: https://longbets.org/6/ are offline. The original long bet was whether or not computers could pass the turing test by 2029: https://longbets.org/1/ You'd think that LLMs fulfill this, but I do wonder if a clever human could still discern between them given their particularities. https://longbets.org/9/ is another interesting one depending on whether you think…

>https://longbets.org/6/

Anyone know why this (and many other bets) have been removed?

https://web.archive.org/web/20080803213625/https://longbets....

>By 2010, more than 50 percent of books sold worldwide will be printed on demand at the point of sale in the form of library-quality paperbacks.

Not exactly a hot-button issue.

Re: The original URL for this prediction will no longer be available in 11 years (2011)

#72

Post by stevekemp »

mg wrote: post #14

It is actually pretty easy to keep alive URLs if there is a will to do so. Just have tests in place so you can't mess them up accidentally. And convert things that are not changing anymore to static html. One of my first web projects involved a music forum and I have been keeping the URLs alive for 24 years now: https://www.gnoosic.com/discussion/ I feel like I owe it to the people who participated to keep it online…

Cool URIs don't change, as we should all remember:

https://www.w3.org/Provider/Style/URI

Re: The original URL for this prediction will no longer be available in 11 years (2011)

#73

Post by ofalkaed »

bonoboTP wrote: post #69
ofalkaed wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>You'd think that LLMs fulfill this, but I do wonder if a clever human could still discern between them given their particularities. While LLMs are very capable of appearing human in general conversation, the test is that they are trying to convince a human that they are human, which is not something that is in their training data and I suspect they would go about things in very odd ways from an actual person, especi…

I don't think any frontier lab tried to make an LLM optimized for the literal Turing test where the LLM is made to argue that it's human. This is not in their interest. They make their LLMs insist they aren't human, have no feelings and sentience etc etc. So we don't actually know how good LLMs can be in this.

That is absolutely true of the chatbots we have access to but I suspect there are people working towards these ends, including all the big names in the field, major win for their company if they manage it. But even then, I have yet to see a model that could naturally handle subtext and context, they struggle even when dealing with programming languages where these things are far simpler than they are in human language.

There is also the problem with how easy it is to back them into a corner where they start acting in very unnatural ways. This would arise when challenging them on their humanity and most people would pick up on it and craft their challenges around it until it fell apart because that is how people work in such adversarial situations.

Re: The original URL for this prediction will no longer be available in 11 years (2011)

#74

Post by lelandfe »

JoshTriplett wrote: post #62
munch117 wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the text was returned using a staged process, whereby the server first returns an instruction (JavaScript), and the web browser then executes that instruction, which is what transfers the text, then that doesn't actually change anything. Those are just technical details of the transfer. You are viewing an HTML document on-screen; it makes no difference to this bet if it was returned to you by a different mechanism…

> or command line tool (like curl) Even if you interpreted the bet generously to allow for a browser to render the content using JavaScript, if I understand the bet correctly, the condition of working with a command-line tool like curl would fail.

That's a secondary ("OR") condition, used if the browser condition isn't satisfied.

Re: The original URL for this prediction will no longer be available in 11 years (2011)

#75

Post by kalleboo »

ofalkaed wrote: post #52
CSMastermind wrote: post #18

It's worth noting that some prediction URLs, for instance: https://longbets.org/6/ are offline. The original long bet was whether or not computers could pass the turing test by 2029: https://longbets.org/1/ You'd think that LLMs fulfill this, but I do wonder if a clever human could still discern between them given their particularities. https://longbets.org/9/ is another interesting one depending on whether you think…

>You'd think that LLMs fulfill this, but I do wonder if a clever human could still discern between them given their particularities. While LLMs are very capable of appearing human in general conversation, the test is that they are trying to convince a human that they are human, which is not something that is in their training data and I suspect they would go about things in very odd ways from an actual person, especi…

> LLMs just don't play with ideas and conversation like we do, they don't riff on it and go with the flow without care, picking up on subtexts and contexts and manipulating them the way people constantly do without effort until they find themselves on the edge of a cliff looking into the void and debating if they should jump.

Sounds like Neuro-sama to me.

Re: The original URL for this prediction will no longer be available in 11 years (2011)

#76

Post by nycdotnet »

iansmith_hn wrote: post #66
fragmede wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, and pay registrar and hosting fees for 100 years, and then just hope the hosting company doesn't fold in the interim after your passing. The problem isn't "can you make sure it stays up while you're alive", the problem is, after you're gone, you're no longer there to keep the flame alive and there are no guarantees anyone else picks up the torch.

Does this suggest a subscription(ish) business where you pay the hosting company for N years and then they ensure your website stays up and unchanged for N years after you die? Quality control issue? Given how many things want me to pay a subscription while I'm alive, surely somebody will start charging me when I'm dead. It is the logical conclusion of SaaS. I wanted to create an acronym for this, but death as a serv…

There is certainly precedent for this - will executors for example. How about “SCITA? Service continues in the afterlife.

Re: The original URL for this prediction will no longer be available in 11 years (2011)

#77

Post by DonaldFisk »

CSMastermind wrote: post #18

It's worth noting that some prediction URLs, for instance: https://longbets.org/6/ are offline. The original long bet was whether or not computers could pass the turing test by 2029: https://longbets.org/1/ You'd think that LLMs fulfill this, but I do wonder if a clever human could still discern between them given their particularities. https://longbets.org/9/ is another interesting one depending on whether you think…

I think that recent LLMs do pass the Turing test, but I don't think it is a good test for intelligence, for two reasons: emergent complexity and pareidolia.

Arguably, ELIZA passed the Turing test ca. 1967: https://archive.computerhistory.org/resources/access/text/20... and not that long ago, ELIZA was still more convincing: https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2023/12/real-...

The Turing Test can be gamed. This was done in some Loebner Prize entries: see https://www.behavior.org/resources/325.pdf and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eugene_Goostman

To determine whether a machine is intelligent, I think it's necessary to understand how it works internally and not just take a black-box approach. This was already understood when Alan Turing wrote his 1950 paper. Elmer and Elsie, William Grey Walter's tortoise robots built during the preceding two years, appeared to behave as if they had some degree of self-awareness. But their "brains" consisted of only two thermionic valves, so self-awareness can be ruled out.

Re: The original URL for this prediction will no longer be available in 11 years (2011)

#80

Post by joshspankit »

mg wrote: post #14

It is actually pretty easy to keep alive URLs if there is a will to do so. Just have tests in place so you can't mess them up accidentally. And convert things that are not changing anymore to static html. One of my first web projects involved a music forum and I have been keeping the URLs alive for 24 years now: https://www.gnoosic.com/discussion/ I feel like I owe it to the people who participated to keep it online…

*a will and the ability for that will to access what it needs
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