Earlier quoted context omitted.
$45 billion was AUM. The leverage was 4x or 5x of that and highly concentrated. Citadel bought $16 billion public portfolio with 10% discount.
> $45 billion was AUM Do you have a credible source specifically claiming this? I want to know whose data they're looking at. (Specifically, I want to unpack how they're marking their private positions.)
Investors in Situational Awareness deserved to lose their shirts
71–72 of 72 posts
Re: Investors in Situational Awareness deserved to lose their shirts
#72I don't understand the point of this piece. There is nothing breaking or remotely interesting which we didn't already know. Mind you I don't particularly care about Aschenbrenner or his fund but it feels to me like typical journalists reporting on hindsight without any sort of skin in the game. "Hhm, how could you be so dumb so as to trust your money to a 22 year old". Peter Thiel did the same with Zuck and like him…
I just don't see the comparison one was a college aged tech founder making a product for college students the other was an AI maximalist who keeps riding red without taking anything off running around the crowd cheering him on and pulling cash out their pockets pointing to the roulette wheel and saying it's always red!
He's up, but he's wiped out because he was 4x leveraged, why was he 4x leveraged? Because he's a dumb kid who doesn't understand that markets have down days or how margin calls work. The same failure mode doesn't happen with facebook or rather, when giving money to a hedgefund in a bull market you expect at least some returns or that they will actually hedge. Not fuel a mid 20s gambling addiction. As of now most of the cash is in a private position with the worst of the AI companies.
If you want to show how smart you are don't waste your time predicting the future, since it's a fools errand. The belief that intelligence makes you better at prediction ironically makes you stupid.