(2) is the point of this article. OAI and Anthropic are spending by far the most money of anyone in the space, as the article rightly notes, but they have no path to becoming profitable, meaning they cannot occupy that position forever. The other entities that rely on their spending to support their own margins - in this case the major cloud providers - are vulnerable to revenue collapse if OAI and Anthropic fail.
The premise most would disagree with is that the labs have no path to profitability. Two points support this: demand for inference is functionally infinite, or at least is so great that it is not meaningful to discuss its limits; and the labs are profitable on inference and are only taking losses to compete with one another. Some would extend this further and say that once the tech is good enough it will be able to drastically reduce their costs by some combination of speeding up research and creating efficiencies to reduce compute spend.
These are valid criticisms. But “AI has gotten better since he started saying ‘AI bad’” is not a reason to ignore the fact that major cloud computing providers are taking on massive new debt while becoming increasingly dependent on only two customers who face meaningful margin pressures. Unless OAI and Anthropic can find a durable moat and a means to exert pricing power, this is a serious issue going forward. That is true whether we wind up with a machine god (although we might have bigger problems in that case) or if we plateau at current capabilities.