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Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

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71–80 of 349 posts

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#71

I keep thinking about the Figma thing. If you're unaware, here's the google summary: ---- The Board Departure: Mike Krieger, Anthropic’s CPO and a co-founder of Instagram, sat on Figma’s board of directors. He resigned on April 14, just days before news of Claude Design broke. This sparked speculation over conflict of interest and the use of proprietary product strategy information. Betrayal of Partnership: The launc…

[deleted]

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#72

To everyone praising Open weight models, could you answer a simple question? If Anthropic doesn't make money because of distillation attacks, how would they convince investors to invest in them, such that it makes financial sense for Anthropic to train even bigger models? Assuming it is preferable for everyone that we get better models in the future. Distillation attacks remove the financial incentive.

The frontier labs have been tightly controlling model access lately to prevent further distillation, and the Chinese labs are still catching up rapidly - it's likely that whatever moat they used distillation to overcome early on is already dry

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#73

The open weight, open architecture releases of the past several days has me more convinced that ultimately, the winner will be whoever burns their models to ASICs fastest. The LLMs themselves are capable of doing some aspects of chip design as evinced by the K3 press release. Furthermore, the frontier models are "good enough" for a wide swathe of tasks and will soon hit that threshold for a good amount of software en…

I'm not convinced, mostly because things like crypto, which I believe went into ASICs, were based on very slowly moving and mostly understood algorithms. LLMs and model architectures seems significantly more volatile. I wouldn't want to be working out the finer details of my chip rollout only to find a new paper/approach that give multiples of performance.

So I guess it depends on how much the latest-greatest model motivates people, and my read on the current churn is that developers are extremely unloyal to brand at this point and will jump to whoever has the best model. And as long as the best model is running on programmable GPUs, that will be the dominant form.

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> investors should be cautious about if they are cautious, what would make them invest in newer bigger models without the expected return? generosity?

Sunk cost fallacy. So much money has been invested in Anthropic and OpenAI at this point that to declare it a loss and walk away could potentially destroy a lot of VC firms, and a non-trivial chunk of the US Economy.

Sunk cost fallacy is not relevant to future investment.

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#75

I keep thinking about the Figma thing. If you're unaware, here's the google summary: ---- The Board Departure: Mike Krieger, Anthropic’s CPO and a co-founder of Instagram, sat on Figma’s board of directors. He resigned on April 14, just days before news of Claude Design broke. This sparked speculation over conflict of interest and the use of proprietary product strategy information. Betrayal of Partnership: The launc…

I believe the coding tool revenue is an important factor right now but not the endgame. The AI companies have to become consumer products to justify their gigantic valuations. We always talked about the “super apps” - one app that fulfills most consumer needs, like WeChat in China. OpenAI is the company most visibly making a huge bet on becoming a “consumer super device”, even designing their own hardware to stop being dependent on Apple and Android. The long term battle is not AI companies vs SaaS, but rather AI companies vs big consumer brands - Apple, Google, Meta, Amazon. Imagine having the ultimate digital assistant that you can throw any task at. Under the hood it creates its own code and interfaces on the fly to help you accomplish your task. By using LLMs as coding assistants we are all training them to become really good at it. If the newcomers succeed to deliver the ultimate digital assistant first, then even a monster like Apple could become obsolete.

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#76
> This is where OpenAI has an advantage over Anthropic. While its models are trailing Anthropic's in recent months, its investments in product, consumer experience, site publishing, voice, and hardware are all directions that have clearer moats.

I was with you up until this point. I don’t think OpenAI has any more of a substantial product moat than Anthropic; if anything, the Claude / mythos etc brand is a valuable asset that OpenAI lacks.

Yes, many of the elite HN engineer always online types have come to prefer Codex, and but if you actually talk to regular engineers in industry, agentic coding is simply still synonymous with Claude Code.

And for the non-engineering uses, Claude is so much more pleasant of a conversational companion than any of the GPT line, and I suspect is this baked deeply into the model, otherwise OpenAI would have closed this gap by now.

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#77
post #5

I think the risk is overstated. For one, on the margin people are willing to pay a lot for slightly better models. I know personally the value the LLM adds to my workflow is considerably more than the $200/m I pay the frontier labs. I have no interest in optimizing that to get it slightly lower. There are a very vocal minority that optimizes this or companies whose LLM expense is marginal, but I think that's the mino…

Not true. Enterprise pay for api. If i am allowed to use fable withouta budget, i can spend 3k per day. Using combination of cheaper models (and better at least in my experience) can lower this to 300. Considering the layoffs, thw companiesdo care a lot of this cost. Price matters more than quality for many use cases. For example, i can writea game where npc are all k3/5.6 level intelligence if the price is cheap enough.

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#78

I keep thinking about the Figma thing. If you're unaware, here's the google summary: ---- The Board Departure: Mike Krieger, Anthropic’s CPO and a co-founder of Instagram, sat on Figma’s board of directors. He resigned on April 14, just days before news of Claude Design broke. This sparked speculation over conflict of interest and the use of proprietary product strategy information. Betrayal of Partnership: The launc…

> I would suggest to people using LLMs: you should be cautious about giving these companies data or relying on them. If you're building an AI startup, there's a very good chance they could decide to directly compete with you if your idea has traction. You're also at their mercy for API pricing etc. LLM generated code is not copyrightable, so even if they do "steal" it - I don't think there's legal grounds to do anyth…

> LLM generated code is not copyrightable, so even if they do "steal" it - I don't think there's legal grounds to do anything about it.

> It can't be stolen. You don't really own it.

At least in the UK computer generated code has been copyright-able for decades [1]

> (3)In the case of a literary, dramatic, musical or artistic work which is computer-generated, the author shall be taken to be the person by whom the arrangements necessary for the creation of the work are undertaken.

And the ToS of the major/minor AI providers as far as i can tell have no opinion on what you do with the code in terms of ownership.

[1] https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1988/48/section/9

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#79

The open weight, open architecture releases of the past several days has me more convinced that ultimately, the winner will be whoever burns their models to ASICs fastest. The LLMs themselves are capable of doing some aspects of chip design as evinced by the K3 press release. Furthermore, the frontier models are "good enough" for a wide swathe of tasks and will soon hit that threshold for a good amount of software en…

> the winner will be whoever burns their models to ASICs fastest.

I don't understand how this works when the models are evolving so fast that your burned ASIC is outdated (or at least not top of the line) in a few weeks.

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#80

I keep thinking about the Figma thing. If you're unaware, here's the google summary: ---- The Board Departure: Mike Krieger, Anthropic’s CPO and a co-founder of Instagram, sat on Figma’s board of directors. He resigned on April 14, just days before news of Claude Design broke. This sparked speculation over conflict of interest and the use of proprietary product strategy information. Betrayal of Partnership: The launc…

> I would suggest to people using LLMs: you should be cautious about giving these companies data or relying on them. If you're building an AI startup, there's a very good chance they could decide to directly compete with you if your idea has traction. You're also at their mercy for API pricing etc. LLM generated code is not copyrightable, so even if they do "steal" it - I don't think there's legal grounds to do anyth…

> LLM generated code is not copyrightable

[citation needed]

I've seen cases where it was determined that the LLM itself doesn't hold copyright. But where are you getting the idea that nobody holds copyright?

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