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What will be left for us to work on?

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Re: What will be left for us to work on?

#71

Post by sarchertech »

ChrisMarshallNY wrote: post #47
Metricon wrote: post #8

I have been writing software for over 40 years and have had a long time interest in and some work in AI over that time. I wouldn’t say this gives me any more prognosticating power about how all of this is ultimately going to go, but I believe we're soon nearing an area of plateauing; whether that's because the science itself is plateauing or the intervention of governments is going to force plateau it. So if things c…

Just FYI, if you know much about the medical field, nurses tend to do most of the actual work, with highly experienced nurses actually taking up the mantle for many duties often done by doctors. Nurses are in far higher demand, than doctors. Your analogy isn’t necessarily wrong, but it might ignore the extreme importance of nurses. Many medical facilities are only staffed with permanent nurses, with doctors helicopte…

> Many medical facilities are only staffed with permanent nurses, with doctors helicoptering in, from time to time, to take care of specific duties that may require certain licenses, or provide specific advice.

Maybe for a very loose definition of medical facilities that includes assisted living facilities.

But for example in an ER, nurses come and go with very rapid turnover and it’s common to staff with temporary travel nurses.

> nurses tend to do most of the actual work

Techs, environmental services, phlebotomists, respiratory therapists, CNAs etc. probably do more of the “work” than nurses.

> highly experienced nurses actually taking up the mantle for many duties often done by doctors

Only if they go back to school and become a Nurse Practitioner or CRNA, but in that case they are no longer functioning as a nurse. Even then they are general operating under the direct supervision of a physician.

> Nurses are in far higher demand, than doctors.

Only in absolute numbers. It’s far harder to hire a doctor than it is a nurse. I know an ex-NFL player who works as a physician recruiter.

Re: What will be left for us to work on?

#72

Post by somenameforme »

Metricon wrote: post #8

I have been writing software for over 40 years and have had a long time interest in and some work in AI over that time. I wouldn’t say this gives me any more prognosticating power about how all of this is ultimately going to go, but I believe we're soon nearing an area of plateauing; whether that's because the science itself is plateauing or the intervention of governments is going to force plateau it. So if things c…

If LLMs reach a point of sufficiently high competence to the point that they're capable of producing usable software from vague, and sometimes contradictory instructions - the same software engineers have to regularly deal with, then at that point software will simply be an expectation of ability in any job.

So I think it would be more comparable to something like literacy. There was a time when that was a fairly uncommon and highly valued skill. Now the guy flipping burgers or pouring a cup of coffee is also almost certainly fully literate. And in fact many jobs have evolved in a way such that it became mandatory, but only because it was already ubiquitous. I expect to see the same thing with software. The industry of producing software that do fairly simple tasks will probably die, but in its place will be a vast array of heavily customized and oft iterated software for companies and people achieving their own stuff.

The mobile industry is a perfect example of where this will be massive shift. Right now there's a million mobile apps to execute extremely basic functionality on phones, but it's loaded with advertising, begging, and general annoyances. As are the app stores themselves. When you can make software that does that in a few minutes with a single prompt, and people realize this (as we're already practically at this point), then that will be the end of those apps. This is because the one thing LLMs have shown is that natural language interfaces are way less friction than using search, whether on the web or an app store. And so there will be a time when it will be lower friction to simply just quickly build your own app to do [whatever] than dealing with somebody trying to monetize an alarm clock.

Re: What will be left for us to work on?

#73

Post by lelanthran »

zkmon wrote: post #59

You need to first address 1)What is work? 2)Why we need to work? Animals don't "work". Not atleast for their own sake. If there is enough green pasture and water around, they don't even migrate to other places. So if work is meant to provide food and shelter and if machines can ensure that, humans don't need to "work". Wealth is only a reserve capacity to help future generations so that they don't need to work for th…

This is a very short-sighted, and exceedingly common, take.

Until the machines aren't owned by anyone (or owned by everyone, take your pick on the phrasing), the owners of the machine have no need to keep you alive.

This take is basically "Don't worry, people like Sam Altman are looking out for us"...

Re: What will be left for us to work on?

#74

Post by jambalaya8 »

HDBaseT wrote: post #68
jambalaya8 wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People dislike and are dependent on things all the time. What'll be interesting to see is how that classroom of students will feel towards AI when it leaves school. I am uncomfortable with AIs being used in schools this way, myself, like almost without exception. I mean, geez, how do you compete? Do you just sort of have to, once a certain number of your classmates uses it for stuff like essays? Do they curve essays…

When students are provided work sheets, assessments and powerpoint slides made by AI, its no surprise that students resort to AI to assist or complete these. Garbage in, Garbage out. The University market is brutal too. If you aren't using AI too, you are falling behind. Many see it as a means to an end.

I was reading a week or so ago how like only 40% of kids can read or do math by hand, and are graduating high school, and I still cannot comprehend it.

Well, one thing about AI... if it does become our overlords, maybe it won't be so eager to be wheedled into giving passing grades. :/

Have you read the research that says AIs are more likely to react favourably to output based on their own model compared to those of a different AI model? Guessing teachers subconsciously grade similarly, like people who use one model get more of some grade than people who use another one...

Guessing this is also why so many liberal arts majors are being cut.

I 'sorta' get why people might use AI in a required class though I am not for it, but why major in something and do it? I mean aside from wanting money (and, really, many of those majors don't make much).

Re: What will be left for us to work on?

#75

Post by strken »

burningChrome wrote: post #15

The other issue is Gen Z and Gen A are now very much opposed to AI. I'm wondering with those two sets of generations who already have a very negative view of AI, how AI can survive that coming tsunami of change. According to WRITER’s 2026 Enterprise Adoption Survey, 44% of Gen Z employees admit to sabotaging their company's AI strategy in at least one way compared to 29% of employees overall. Sabotage behaviours incl…

Do "entering proprietary information into AI tools", "using non-approved AI tools", and "ignoring guidelines and best practices" really count as sabotaging an AI strategy because you are opposed to it? An over-enthusiastic early adopter would do all three.

Re: What will be left for us to work on?

#76

Post by doubtfuluser »

I think this is an important article that provides a framework how to think and navigate what’s happening.

What upset me a bit were phrases like “This is not a slogan. It’s a framework” which immediately devalued the work for me.

I have read so much Ai generated text recently, that I developed some AI-fatigue or AI-burnout, and I’m wondering if that might hit more fields - making more humans reject Ai work.

To be clear, I still like the text and I don’t know if it was written (partially) by Ai or not - but it’s this uncanny feeling I got reading it.

Re: What will be left for us to work on?

#77

Post by zer00eyz »

shaewest wrote: post #58
kQq9oHeAz6wLLS wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this is underrepresented in everyone's calculations about how AI will affect software engineering. In my experience (and apparently yours as well) this is what many companies are using it for. All those pesky bugs that are minor annoyances but not show-stoppers are getting addressed. They aren't helping us sell more software, but they're dissatisfiers for the customers.

Worth looking into 'Jevons Paradox' for more examples of this sort of thing. TL;DR is that as things become more efficient, whether coal, or programmers, the usage of a good increases as demand skyrockets for what it can be used for.

This is already going on.

When lawyers and writers are talking to me about "docker containers" and "agents" I assure you that the amount of code out there is going to grow.

Re: What will be left for us to work on?

#78

Post by Toutouxc »

somenameforme wrote: post #72
Metricon wrote: post #8

I have been writing software for over 40 years and have had a long time interest in and some work in AI over that time. I wouldn’t say this gives me any more prognosticating power about how all of this is ultimately going to go, but I believe we're soon nearing an area of plateauing; whether that's because the science itself is plateauing or the intervention of governments is going to force plateau it. So if things c…

If LLMs reach a point of sufficiently high competence to the point that they're capable of producing usable software from vague, and sometimes contradictory instructions - the same software engineers have to regularly deal with, then at that point software will simply be an expectation of ability in any job. So I think it would be more comparable to something like literacy. There was a time when that was a fairly unc…

> If LLMs reach a point of sufficiently high competence to the point that they're capable of producing usable software from vague, and sometimes contradictory instructions - the same software engineers have to regularly deal with, then at that point software will simply be an expectation of ability in any job.

I don’t understand how people can say this and then continue talking about software. So we’re saying machines can now casually do complex and cognitively demanding jobs like software development (or 90% of all white-collar jobs out there) and we’re NOT worried about the lynching mob going door to door and hanging IT people on lampposts? And I’m being serious, the impact this would have on societies would be unprecedented.

Re: What will be left for us to work on?

#79

Post by strken »

lelanthran wrote: post #73
zkmon wrote: post #59

You need to first address 1)What is work? 2)Why we need to work? Animals don't "work". Not atleast for their own sake. If there is enough green pasture and water around, they don't even migrate to other places. So if work is meant to provide food and shelter and if machines can ensure that, humans don't need to "work". Wealth is only a reserve capacity to help future generations so that they don't need to work for th…

This is a very short-sighted, and exceedingly common, take. Until the machines aren't owned by anyone (or owned by everyone, take your pick on the phrasing), the owners of the machine have no need to keep you alive. This take is basically "Don't worry, people like Sam Altman are looking out for us"...

It's quite a good metaphor. What used to happen to an old horse? How many horses do you see now that the world has moved to tractors[0]?

I can't wait to be kept in agistment by my overlords, fed on treacle and oats, ridden in circles once a fortnight, and shot when I break a leg.

[0] https://www.researchgate.net/figure/United-States-Farm-based...

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