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Europe's new climate in seven charts

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71–80 of 247 posts

Re: Europe's new climate in seven charts

#71
It's hard to compare a shift in a probability distribution because people will hang on to outliers. We hear this every winter: "all I hear about is Global Warming but look at this record snow". But I do believe the empirical evidence for all this has gone well beyond statistical significance.

The Wire is one of my all-time favorite shows in part because it's a story of institutional failure at every level. The police, the ports, the media, the schools and the city government. That's really what's going on here. Utility companies (in the US at least) prefer fossil fuels because they're more profitable. The wealthy prefer fossil fuels because a mine or an oil well is and always has been a massive wealth concentrator. Build a solar farm and it... just produces electricity. There are far fewer profit opportunities so it doesn't happen. So fossil fuel companies have money to throw at politicians to enshrine their rent-seeking behavior. But most depressing is how many ordinary people buy into this system with some hand-waving about "jobs" even though renewables will be strictly better in basically every way at this point.

Spain could become the energy powerhouse of Europe here. It's one of the most southernmost European countries and has plentiful sunshine. Additionally it has a lot of otherwise degraded land. According to Google, 200,000+ square kilometers. You build endless solar farms and UHVDC transmission lines across the continent and you could massively diminish the dependence on natural gas. All the tech for all of this already exists. It can be added incrementally. There's no 20+ year construction cycle like there is for any nuclear project.

As an added benefit, this would likely help regenerate the soil as China has done.

It's worth adding that the privatization era of the 1980s and 1990s was a massive problem. Every utility in Europe should be nationalized. It's easier to subsidize energy shocks when you own the companies that are profiting from them.

Re: Europe's new climate in seven charts

#72
post #9
post #2

to me, these heatwaves feel like the start of the end of human existence

Serious question, are you doing a simple extrapolation and assuming in 10 years Europe is going to have 60C heatwaves or something?

The french government (more pro-business than pro-ecology, but not climate deniers) is seriously planning for how to manage 55C heatwaves around the half of the century.

Because climate scientists agree that's what's coming (except for extreme, immediate reduction of fossil fuel burning).

Re: Europe's new climate in seven charts

#73
post #2

to me, these heatwaves feel like the start of the end of human existence

Nah. It's really as simple as this: Southern climates are moving north. (In the northern hemisphere.) If you want a vision of the future, consider a New England that looks more like the Southeast. There will be winners and losers. As climate zones move toward the poles, weather patterns and agricultural viability will shift with them. This will eventually turn current breadbaskets into deserts while warming up northe…

This is… one way to look at the death of billions, the end of nations, and the collapse of society due to the ensuing refugee crises.

Not to forget, we are dependent on the food web. These changes mean species will be wiped out, fishing stocks will crash, and invasive will spread.

Since you are likely in the developed world, tropical temps in Europe would mean refurbishment of houses.

People won’t remember things like the lakes freezing over or ice skating.

Re: Europe's new climate in seven charts

#74
post #61
post #39

And yet many Europeans will still argue that ACs are evil and they shouldn't have them despite an estimated 175k heat related deaths per year. Although maybe this heat wave will change some minds.

Always fun, having to fight a problem caused by X by doing more X. At least there’s the silver lining that solar production and the need for AC go hand in hand.

Yes, all that CO2 generated by nuclear power plants and renewable energy is terrible. But I guess if enough people die then Europe's carbon emissions will also go down so it's a win! And thank you for proving my point.

Re: Europe's new climate in seven charts

#75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think thats the wrong level of abstraction. The cold war ended, but clima change will not end.

It can change, if we get to net negative emissions. Not probable but possible.

It will just take at least three or four generations to get back to 90's climate, provided we don't trigger any irreversible tipping points, like the melting of the permafrost, in which case the climate is messed up for millennia.

Re: Europe's new climate in seven charts

#76
post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People one or two generations before you felt that about the cold war.

I think thats the wrong level of abstraction. The cold war ended, but clima change will not end.

> The cold war ended

You wouldn't know it based on how everyone talks about Russia pulling the strings of just about every election (and being a moment away from conquering Europe while simultaneously being too incompetent to beat Ukraine).

Re: Europe's new climate in seven charts

#77

Why is it that aggressive climate action is not taken still?

> Why is it that aggressive climate action is not taken still?

We can't even have global peace around the world, some people are still starving daily despite the fact that there is plenty of food to feed everybody on the planet, and slavery is still a thing, who's going to do what climate action exactly?

Re: Europe's new climate in seven charts

#78
post #42

Why is it that aggressive climate action is not taken still?

Because rich people want more money. They keep saying it's for the good of humanity and some useful idiots keep repeating that. A more balanced tax policy, regulation of financial markets, incentives to renewals, stopping investment in fossil fuels, increasing energy efficiency, and rewilding could all help, but we won't do a lick of it, because every single one of those things goes against the billionaires who own t…

Voters also don't care much.

You might say that rich people and politicians have more responsibility because they have more power for making changes, but politicians are chosen by voters, and wealth doesn't make people more ethical

Re: Europe's new climate in seven charts

#79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The conditions leading to the Cold War were reversible, this crisis is becoming very much less so. Despite what the carbon capture techno optimists say.

>The conditions leading to the Cold War were reversible, this crisis is becoming very much less so. During the covid start lockdowns when everyone was forced to WFH and nobody was driving to work for a couple of weeks, we saw a massive decrease in CO2 and emissions. So it can be reversed, we just don't want to because we gotta keep the GDP hamster wheel moving

We did not see a massive decrease. We saw a short-lived drop to levels normal in the mid tens. It is barely a blip on the graph. WFH won’t save us, unfortunately.

Re: Europe's new climate in seven charts

#80

If you’re wondering who to blame, as little as ten years ago: “Republican Senate environment chief uses snowball as prop in climate rant”[0] It’s an interesting plot twist in Termination Shock, where the popularist right shifts overnight from “it’s fake” to “real, but the liberals/globalists/experts betrayed us by doing nothing useful”. A reframe from environmentalism into grievance politics, which is already becomin…

USA is around 18th country in CO2 emissions per capita, and has reduced emissions per capita around as much as the combined EU since 2000, or a little more. Can't see how some random politician is "to blame", that's pretty absurd claim, and not supported by the claimed evidence.

And the consumption habits of the USA are responsible for how many more tonnes of CO2 emissions that are not onshore within the USA ?

The USA was far and away the very worst global source for a very long time, that only changed by offshoring the processing and manufacture that feeds US consumption.

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