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Is America becoming a gerontocracy?

economist.com

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Re: Is America becoming a gerontocracy?

#71

Post by zdragnar »

Chu4eeno wrote: post #38
zdragnar wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The majority of people being old is a relatively modern problem. One could even argue that it is a problem specific to cultures that favor low or negative birthrates.

No cultures directly favor low or negative birthrates. But we've known since the 1800s that it follows from female education (and this seems independent of culture, it was first observed in France, but you can see the same trend in any African country, or even Iran), which is favored.

China's (now defunct) one child policy begs to differ.

Re: Is America becoming a gerontocracy?

#72

Post by littlexsparkee »

halsafar wrote: post #67
ThrowawayTestr wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Roman senators were 40-50 https://bmcr.brynmawr.edu/2003/2003.09.49/

Which given life expectancy 2000 years ago that would probably be equivalent to today's 60+.

Average life expectancy is driven by early age mortality though, guessing that if you get past that gauntlet, aging happens at roughly the same rate as now (less advanced medicine but perhaps better nutrition?)

Re: Is America becoming a gerontocracy?

#73

Post by littlexsparkee »

zdragnar wrote: post #24
jyounker wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're demonstrating the reluctance to admit that class conflict is a real thing. There has been a class war going on for at least four decades in the US, and the lower classes are on the loosing side. All you have to do is look at growing wage gaps in that period. We can come up with all sorts of just-so stories, but the simple answer is that the rich have captured the US government, and it is being governed…

If you look at the actual numbers, the trend over the last several decades is a steadily shrinking number of people in poverty in the US. If the only thing you look at are the wage gaps, you're ignoring the very real gains the lower end of the spectrum have made. If the choice were to be poor then or poor now, I'd much rather be poor now.

Since social mobility has flatlined, this has more to do with about the decline in birthrates.

Re: Is America becoming a gerontocracy?

#74

Post by Balgair »

lclc wrote: post #11

It's the basic 'flaw' of Democracy: Since the majority of the people are old, they will vote in the interest of old people. That's why the pension system will never be fixed.

Aside: Do older populations vote for older candidates? Like, pick a house district, what is the average age there, does that correlate? I suppose you can do the same for states and senate candidates too. And I think we have good historical data too, so does it work going backwards?

If it does correlate to some 'strong' degree [0], then i think we could use it as a bit of a prediction going forward.

[0] It's population stuff so really anything above r>0.35 is good enough

Re: Is America becoming a gerontocracy?

#75

Post by littlexsparkee »

lifestyleguru wrote: post #7

Welcome to the honorable club with with Italy and Germany. What's very specific is that the old pull up the ladder. They don't pass the knowledge, nor experience, not a single cent trickles down, no power is delegated. Even the opposite, with help of immediate family they vacuum up the money and power even further. What's quite mindblowing for an outside observer is that the birth year of American president has been…

i see lower voting rates for young people as a nihilistic reaction to gerontocracy. i.e. if they are blocked from upward mobility, they see power protects assets and have no clear path to this, isn't it a natural reaction? let's say they all organized and had higher voter turnout - they'd still lose on the wealth front, which is what counts. the aged would defend their power vociferously and probably win through PACs, lobbying, etc.

Re: Is America becoming a gerontocracy?

#76

Post by littlexsparkee »

jmclnx wrote: post #64

You can write about these issues all you want, but the fact remains the young do not vote (period). When I was young, the voting age became 18, me and all my friends could not wait until we could vote and we kept it up as we aged. Many in my generation were that way. Then all of a sudden the young stopped voting. So if young people want to change things, get involved with politics get off your phones and make noise.…

When you've seen social movements fizzle out and understand that wealth outweighs turnout (the aged have both), how can you motivate people in that sort of environment? It feels rigged at that point

Re: Is America becoming a gerontocracy?

#77

Post by littlexsparkee »

simianwords wrote: post #61

This article’s thesis is far too simplistic. For one: let’s agree that USA is ruled by the elites who are pushing AI and technology broadly. How does this reflect gerontocracy? Old ppl like tech and AI? What am I missing as a non American?

What about - the sacrifice of job stability and earning power in service of higher stock prices and profits for asset holders?

Re: Is America becoming a gerontocracy?

#78

Post by znpy »

lifestyleguru wrote: post #30
znpy wrote: post #23

Most of the civilised world is becoming a gerontocracy. With birth rates in free fall for last twenty years, what did we expect?

> With birth rates in free fall for last twenty years, what did we expect? Millennials received kick in their teeth when entering adulthood and around the time when was the moment for a last (or the first, finally) child. Real estate market had never been cheap either. Exactly overlaps with falling birthrates over the last twenty years. Looking at other countries, "interestingly" Russian invasion of Ukraine basically…

> Millennials received kick in their teeth when entering adulthood and around the time when was the moment for a last (or the first, finally) child.

X doubt. I partially agree but at the same time what I see with my eyes does not really align with this usual rhethoric/narrative.

In my age group I see a lot of childless men and women that did manage to build their own stability (have a stable job, buy a house and whatever). Those people aren't having kids either.

OTOH I have a number of friends with pets that are essentially glorified substitution of children.

Re: Is America becoming a gerontocracy?

#79

Post by _DeadFred_ »

jrflowers wrote: post #43
zdragnar wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you look at the actual numbers, the trend over the last several decades is a steadily shrinking number of people in poverty in the US. If the only thing you look at are the wage gaps, you're ignoring the very real gains the lower end of the spectrum have made. If the choice were to be poor then or poor now, I'd much rather be poor now.

The number of people in the prison/jail/probation/parole systems in the US has gone up ~16x since the 1970s https://www.sentencingproject.org/reports/mass-incarceration... While the population of the US has gone up by ~1.6x during that same period. Seeing as convictions aren’t spread evenly across income brackets, a poor person’s chances of being in the carceral system outpacing population growth by a factor of ten d…

And contrary to boomers loved in childhood mythos of the wild west where the criminal could get a second chance, become the sheriff, etc. modern America gives no second chances. Huge sections of poorly paid labor would not be staffed if not for people having zero options. Many businesses get the majority of their cheap labor by exploiting ex-cons/people on probation and knowing someone on probation can't say 'no' because a complaint of their attitude from their boss to their PO has actual impacts on their life/freedoms.

Re: Is America becoming a gerontocracy?

#80

Post by bluefirebrand »

breppp wrote: post #63
TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, it's the empirical fact that the US is a plutocratic oligarchy. The oligarchy runs the economy, the government, and the media for its own benefit, and is violently opposed to anything that challenges this. https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-poli...

How do you "empirically" prove something of that sort? I for one look at Trump or the previous Tea Party change in the Republican party as anything close to having a static group of elites controlling the country

Of course it's a static group of elites. They might not all agree with each other but they definitely all used to hang out on Epstein's island together

It's all the same group, despite the politicking in the public sphere

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