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SpaceX sheds $400B in market value as debut rally hits reverse

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Re: SpaceX sheds $400B in market value as debut rally hits reverse

#71

Post by spwa4 »

stubish wrote: post #13
thewhitetulip wrote: post #3

It's crazy that Musk is worth a trillion dollar and the 2nd richest person is just 200 Billion dollars. What's more crazy is that the revenue in no way justifies the trillion dollars valuation of spaceX!

On paper. The actual number is how much cash banks will lend him using his SpaceX holdings as collateral. Maybe that is a trillion dollars. Smarter money though? They know that if things go south and they need to collect that collateral, in that situation SpaceX will be worth a lot less than a trillion dollars.

> They know that if things go south and they need to collect that collateral, in that situation SpaceX will be worth a lot less

Yes, just look at the massive US commercial real estate bubble that could never have existed if banks and investors actually did that.

Re: SpaceX sheds $400B in market value as debut rally hits reverse

#72

Post by Hikikomori »

DoesntMatter22 wrote: post #53
Grombobulous wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the bigger issue is that oligarchs have gotten so powerful that they can just write down the valuation they want and the market will just agree with it blindly. The issue isn’t that investors will lose their money, the issue is that in some cases like Tesla they never do. The oligarchs are propped up by their own power over the behavior or the market — a power which is disproportionally larger than the object…

I don't get the complaint about Tesla. It's profitable, has little debt and 40 billion in the bank. What sort of "Power over the behavior of the market" do they exert? Like they can force people to buy their cars. Space X has the most sophisticated vehicle ever created by man. Dicks does not. If you are only looking at revenue then sure, but that would be silly, you have to look at what the potential in a company is…

Did their potential go up or down when their CEO started heiling?

Re: SpaceX sheds $400B in market value as debut rally hits reverse

#73

Post by Yizahi »

phyzix5761 wrote: post #37

This is pretty normal for tech stocks. Most have a big pop on the first few days of IPO and then they drop. After 180 days, insiders can start selling shares so there's another drop around that time due to a higher supply for shares on the sell side.

This happens witch such predictability and not only in IT stocks that I started to wonder, if that is not illegal? I mean, illegal in a spirit of insider trading laws, not literally illegal.

Re: SpaceX sheds $400B in market value as debut rally hits reverse

#74

Post by Yizahi »

z0ltan wrote: post #33

The U.S is nothing but an Oligarchy now.

Technically it never ceased to be an oligarchy just like all western countries are oligarchies too. People elect some a few of the people on top and then they act on their own absolutely unchecked, plus all those other unelected people ruling us with them. It's a definition of oligarchy. The only partially democratic country in the world is Switzerland, where people actually can vote on a country governance directly and government must comply with results (and not only take it into attention), which is a definition of democracy.

Re: SpaceX sheds $400B in market value as debut rally hits reverse

#75

Post by roryirvine »

qq66 wrote: post #41
kingstnap wrote: post #2

Even if it drops to 1/2 its IPO price ($855B valuation) that still massively overpaying for it. What do they think is gonna come from this SpaceX + Twitter + XAi + Cursor amalgamation? Sexbot agents vibe coding on Mars?

One theory is that Elon Musk ends up being able to build AI datacenters faster and more cost effectively than anyone else, which seems plausible given the success of Tesla Gigafactories.

Datacentres are close to being a commodity, though.

There's some stuff you can do with Combined Cooling & Power or other cogeneration schemes, and potential for cost-cutting: removing fire protection, doing without redundant power, reducing security, that sort of thing. But that's all fairly marginal in the grand scheme of things.

The more experimental stuff like running with extreme temperature gradients, extensive liquid cooling, or maybe using CO2 or He instead of air is certainly worth trying out, but unlikely to make much of a difference either.

SpaceX are claiming that they're making a big profit on their deals with Anthropic and OpenAI but that seems to assume that the cost of the compute is zero. I'm not a forensic accountant, so maybe it's okay to have written the value of that down already, but it's not a trick they'll be able to pull off more than once.

Really, the best thing you can say about them is that they've got a big pile of money so can finance capital expenditure cheaply. That gives them an edge of a few percentage points over the likes of Equinix (worth $14.2bn), but not much more than that.

Re: SpaceX sheds $400B in market value as debut rally hits reverse

#77

Post by busyant »

OutOfHere wrote: post #36
gymbeaux wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The plan is simply for insiders to offload their bags (overvalued shares) to retail investors, like the folk who frequent the wallstreetbets subreddit and do all their “investing” on Robinhood. This speaks to the larger trend of the lower and middle class apparently giving up on any plans to retire- and it’s understandable as the federal minimum wage has never been so disconnected from the cost of living, plus inflat…

Options is gambling only for the vast majority who're inexperienced with them or don't have a sound theory for them. I can trade them in my setup with over a 95% success rate, perhaps even 99%. Of course I am not going to type out my theory here. Such an overgeneralization ruined your otherwise reasonable comment. Always stop when you are winning.

Explanation 1: You're lying / delusional about your success rate.

Explanation 2: Your trading "theory" is sound, but your theory requires specific and rare conditions to be met before you trade, so your 95-99% success rate only achieves modest gains.

Re: SpaceX sheds $400B in market value as debut rally hits reverse

#79

Post by OutOfHere »

busyant wrote: post #77
OutOfHere wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Options is gambling only for the vast majority who're inexperienced with them or don't have a sound theory for them. I can trade them in my setup with over a 95% success rate, perhaps even 99%. Of course I am not going to type out my theory here. Such an overgeneralization ruined your otherwise reasonable comment. Always stop when you are winning.

Explanation 1: You're lying / delusional about your success rate. Explanation 2: Your trading "theory" is sound, but your theory requires specific and rare conditions to be met before you trade, so your 95-99% success rate only achieves modest gains.

Of course I require specific conditions and I limit the amount at risk. I don't know who doesn't. Regarding me lying, no, but I accept that the pattern can change in the future.

Re: SpaceX sheds $400B in market value as debut rally hits reverse

#80

Post by tpm »

qq66 wrote: post #41
kingstnap wrote: post #2

Even if it drops to 1/2 its IPO price ($855B valuation) that still massively overpaying for it. What do they think is gonna come from this SpaceX + Twitter + XAi + Cursor amalgamation? Sexbot agents vibe coding on Mars?

One theory is that Elon Musk ends up being able to build AI datacenters faster and more cost effectively than anyone else, which seems plausible given the success of Tesla Gigafactories.

A few Chinese companies build both batteries and cars faster and more cost effectively than anyone else including Tesla though.
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