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With Wall Street’s help, you’re about to be forced to buy stock in SpaceX

paulkrugman.substack.com

71–80 of 99 posts

Re: With Wall Street’s help, you’re about to be forced to buy stock in SpaceX

#71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nate Silver with the receipts: https://www.natesilver.net/p/social-media-has-become-a-freak... Most of the top engagement on Twitter comes from the right.

> It’s not hard to notice that Twitter has become extremely right-leaning. This is very different from X is "an extreme-right, Nazi-friendly cesspool".

You think Musk's rhetoric is not extreme-right? Want some quotes?

Re: With Wall Street’s help, you’re about to be forced to buy stock in SpaceX

#72
post #22
post #7

If you listen to Elon speak, and you don't have much technical knowledge, or even maybe have some mild technical knowledge, Elon really sounds like he knows what he is doing and has very high confidence he can execute it. He can very non-nonchalantly rattle off a plan to pull off the impossible like it's no big deal. And he does have some significant achievements under his belt, but quite a bit easier things than wha…

It's funny he's only able to do that because he has so little real technical understanding. A real engineer wouldn't be so flippant.

What I think is funny is that Steve Jobs also had very little technical knowledge and was just as much of an asshole, yet he's worshipped in the tech community. The only reason comments like yours are being made is because of Musk's politics. He was also loved in the Tech community, before supporting Trump.

Musk doesn't have to be a 'real engineer'. Most 'real engineers' would obsess over mundane details and rarely think about the bigger picture or making a profit.

Re: With Wall Street’s help, you’re about to be forced to buy stock in SpaceX

#73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> guy who predicted that the internet would be a flop 1. If you actually read the Snopes article, you'll see that his 1998 "prediction" was actually a humorous take on the Information Superhighway hoopla what was going on at the time. 2. Something else he wrote in 1998, in more serious matter, has been widely cited and was very important in the post-GFC world: https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/1998/06/1998…

You should probably read the snopes article, because nowhere in it does it say that it was a humorous take on the Information Superhighway hoopla. You are spreading lies. Easily checked lies.

The Snopes article has him saying, about the article, "I was clearly trying to be provocative…". I would interpret that as being humorously contrarian.

He actually revisited the 1998 article in a 2023 NYT column:

* https://archive.ph/3fidX

* https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/04/opinion/internet-economy....

The productivity numbers show he wasn't as wrong, economically, as folks try to make him out to be, which point (4) goes into. The research on computers and productivity goes back decades:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Productivity_paradox

* https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-solow-productivity-pa...

Re: With Wall Street’s help, you’re about to be forced to buy stock in SpaceX

#74
post #12

You have to take Krugman with a big grain of salt. It's been decades since he was in a policy position and these days he's more of a commentator, opinionator who is often wrong. I think he sometimes leans on his nobel prize to give his opinions weight that people should discount given how often his opinions fall flat.

> It's been decades since he was in a policy position and these days he's more of a commentator, opinionator who is often wrong.

He was never in a policy position (perhaps one year under Feldstein in Reagan's CEA?).

In a 2011 paper examining talking head / pundit prediction accuracies, Krugman came out on as most accurate:

* https://www.hamilton.edu/documents/an-analysis-of-the-accura...

Re: With Wall Street’s help, you’re about to be forced to buy stock in SpaceX

#75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China electrified the auto industry [1] [2] [3], not Tesla (mostly BYD). SpaceX is appreciated for proving that reusable vehicles are possible, which other nation states are building [4]. Musk is the management huckster who slaps his name on it, sells it, and reaps the benefits as opposed to the person grinding creating the actual results and innovation. "It is what it is." [1] https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car…

BYD sells fewer BEVs than Tesla globally. Their large numbers stem from hybrids. They also grew long after Tesla established EVs as a viable market. You're misinformed.

Nissan Leaf should get a lot of credit for establishing that market. Tesla launched first, but for 4 years only had an $100k car that only sold around 2500 units over its lifetime.

Nissan launched the Leaf 3 years after Tesla, but it was the first mass market EV, and in the first year sold around 9000 in the US and 20000 world wide.

Tesla didn't have a somewhat affordable car until the Model S in 2012, although it was still around twice the median price for a new car then.

It took until 2020 for Tesla cumulative sales to surpass Leaf cumulative sales.

Also, everything I'm finding says that in 2025 BYD sold 2.26 million BEVs in 2025 and 2.29 milling PHEVs, which is more BEVs than Tesla sold.

Re: With Wall Street’s help, you’re about to be forced to buy stock in SpaceX

#76
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Considering that Climate Change is apparently the greatest challenge of our age, please point me to a single person who has done more to move the world economy to a Green economy than Musk? The same guy burning portable gas generators at both Colossus data centers?

Yep. Also the guy moving countries to battery peaking power instead of gas turbines, the guy who started the revolution that has China moving to mostly battery powered cars. He could run those data centers for decades and not dent his net green credentials.

[deleted]

Re: With Wall Street’s help, you’re about to be forced to buy stock in SpaceX

#78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your response is also a common trope. What has Elon actually invented? What code did Elon write on-par with Carmack? We can judge him by technical merits very easily. But if you hold him to the standards of Carmack or Feynman, Elon's accomplishments are entirely benign.

The query in question is "Elon little real technical understanding", which is demonstrably false. Responding to that with the logical fallacy of Moving the Goalposts does not address it.

Wait, "demonstrably false" based on anecdotes? I'm sorry, when I wonder whether someone like, say, Carmack has technical chops I wouldn't rely on anecdotes from people, especially people I do not know of.

For one, I can counter those with anecdotes from people I do know and trust. Like, I know directly from at least one very senior ex-Twitter engineer, who I worked directly with and whose technical chops I can vouch for (and who left before Elon took over, so you know, less chances of prejudice) that everything Elon said about Twitter engineering after he took over was absolute BS.

For another, I can point to boneheaded moves directly traceable to Elon, like eschewing LIDAR for Tesla FSD, that have endangered my own life on multiple occasions. Like, phantom braking is STILL a problem for in 2026, something that LIDAR would largely eliminate.

Just because he's built some very successful technical businesses does not mean he's technically strong. It is useful to know that cults of personality are cultivated. And especially for one like Elon (cf video game cheating scandal) when in doubt, it is probably a good idea to err towards "cultivated."

Re: With Wall Street’s help, you’re about to be forced to buy stock in SpaceX

#79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It’s not hard to notice that Twitter has become extremely right-leaning. This is very different from X is "an extreme-right, Nazi-friendly cesspool".

You think Musk's rhetoric is not extreme-right? Want some quotes?

Did I ever say that? The characterization was of Twitter, not Musk.

Re: With Wall Street’s help, you’re about to be forced to buy stock in SpaceX

#80
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The query in question is "Elon little real technical understanding", which is demonstrably false. Responding to that with the logical fallacy of Moving the Goalposts does not address it.

Wait, "demonstrably false" based on anecdotes ? I'm sorry, when I wonder whether someone like, say, Carmack has technical chops I wouldn't rely on anecdotes from people, especially people I do not know of. For one, I can counter those with anecdotes from people I do know and trust. Like, I know directly from at least one very senior ex-Twitter engineer, who I worked directly with and whose technical chops I can vouch…

Elon is clearly highly technical as demonstrated by the Starbase interviews by Everyday Astronaut https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLStF4EoZOEFJ6xDx656Ik...

You can pick any video and see this for yourself.

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