Is this with the new method of counting what inflation means? (trimmed mean, without outliers)
US Consumer Price Index up 4.2%
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Re: US Consumer Price Index up 4.2%
#72Remember this next time you get your yearly review/raise. 4.2% is what you need to stay even, anything less is a pay cut.
This is why it's important to get paid in stock. I get an automatic extra 100k a year if inflation runs hot!
What advantages does that have over taking your paycheck 100% in cash and investing in index funds?
Re: US Consumer Price Index up 4.2%
#73All of the increase is from energy. Oil prices.
Per the link, food is up 3.1% and everything else 2.9%. So energy pulled inflation up from about 3% to about 4%, but that's not "all of the increase"
How much of the food cost (and everything else) is tied to the increase in diesel prices? Do they adjust that out?
Re: US Consumer Price Index up 4.2%
#74Remember this next time you get your yearly review/raise. 4.2% is what you need to stay even, anything less is a pay cut.
Typically, you need a little more to make up for the difference in how much more taxes you pay at the marginal end vs the average for your total income... The median earner with a standard deduction would need a ~4.7% raise to stay even... "Inflation" is also increasingly distributed unevenly. The top 10% continues to make up a larger and larger portion of spending. It is entirely possible for ~4.2% inflation to be s…
Tax brackets are also inflation-adjusted, so shouldn't that cancel out?
Re: US Consumer Price Index up 4.2%
#75Here are some N-year rolling total inflation charts to put this datapoint in a longer-term perspective: https://totalrealreturns.com/inflation . Zooming out always smooths the noise.
> Prices are up +4.25% in the past year, and +24.49% in the past 5 years, according to the latest CPI data released Jun. 10, 2026. The price level has approximately doubled (2.01x) today compared to August 1999.
Not knowing if that's good/bad, as it is without any frame of reference, so the same data for Spain looks something like this:
Prices up +3.2% in the past year, up +22.4% in the past 5 years. Compared to 1999, a 1.88× difference, and if you want to compare since when it doubled, it'd be around September 1996. This is according to a tool from INE, Spain’s national statistics: https://www.ine.es/varipc/index.do?L=1
Re: US Consumer Price Index up 4.2%
#76Remember this is the number the Government is measuring and reporting. The "real" inflation that every day people feel in their wallet is significantly higher.
Re: US Consumer Price Index up 4.2%
#77Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not quite. The value of the currency has declined by 33% since 1999. Prices are subject to the combination of the value of the currency and the value of the good. Food may be worth more than in the past, for example, so you cannot look at the value of the currency alone.
Food is one of the things that's going to have the least change in value.
Quite the opposite. Value is essentially a function of scarcity relative to desire. Food desire may be, for all intents and purposes, stable, but availability is most certainly not. Something like a major weather event wiping out a crop can quickly change the scarcity profile. Food is especially prone to value variances over time.
Re: US Consumer Price Index up 4.2%
#78Here are some N-year rolling total inflation charts to put this datapoint in a longer-term perspective: https://totalrealreturns.com/inflation . Zooming out always smooths the noise.
Do understand actual policy decisions: https://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/econ_focus...
Re: US Consumer Price Index up 4.2%
#79Here are some N-year rolling total inflation charts to put this datapoint in a longer-term perspective: https://totalrealreturns.com/inflation . Zooming out always smooths the noise.
That shows that it’s been since 1991 since we saw similar five year increases in prices. Which is a long time. You also have to be careful not to zoom out so far you get into the “we all die anyway” scale where you’re not really tracking things that are meaningful to on-the-ground, as-lived reality
Re: US Consumer Price Index up 4.2%
#80Is this with the new method of counting what inflation means? (trimmed mean, without outliers)
No, the new method of inflation that Kevin Warsh likes is the trimmed mean which is 2.8%.