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Bitcoin Has Longest Losing Streak Since August in Bruising Week

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Re: Bitcoin Has Longest Losing Streak Since August in Bruising Week

#71
post #59
post #19

Bitcoin price stories should no longer be considered on topic for HN.

Very true. Now that we have AI, Bitcoin is irrelevant.

Do you think we could convince hypothetical AGIs to buy NFTs? Since they're not embodied (or at least not limited to one body), it might be the only way they could really properly indulge in fine art speculation.

"An AI can't smell a painting, but it can smell an NFT"

Re: Bitcoin Has Longest Losing Streak Since August in Bruising Week

#72

Bitcoin doesn't really have any coherent reasoning behind it, that I can tell. Other investments I can have a theory (which may be wrong) and see it work. I can buy gold/silver to hedge weaker currency. I can believe a stock is going up (or the market in general). I can buy bonds. I can do Forex or Commodities based on whatever feeling if I really want to lose money. But Bitcoin doesn't really seem to correlate with…

That's circular logic on the gold/silver. You basically say gold/silver holds value because it holds value. Bitcoin and other crypto is really no more illogical than precious metals. Precious metals have a few relatively minor uses for industrial applications but really they're valuable because we've all agreed they're valuable, no different than Bitcoin.

Gold/Silver tend to increase in price when cash loses value, and drops when cash gains value. I am not saying I believe they are inherently valuable, but there is some kind of cause and effect that is displayed in the market. I can find no cause and effect in bitcoin.

Re: Bitcoin Has Longest Losing Streak Since August in Bruising Week

#73

I like to tell people I have an imaginary dog. It fits my needs perfectly except for one critical issue --- it won't clean up food dropped on the floor. Bitcoin is imaginary money. It works perfectly except for one critical issue --- it's not very good for purchasing stuff. Bitcoin has about the same value as my imaginary dog.

[flagged]

Re: Bitcoin Has Longest Losing Streak Since August in Bruising Week

#74
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Value can only teleport if someone is willing to trade traditional currency in exchange on the other side. My no international fee bank account also teleports value across the globe instantly and more merchants are willing to accept it than Bitcoin.

Telll it to my friend who was escaping a country under sanctions and had to move his money elsewhere. His bank didn't have that miraculous power, but Bitcoin did.

> Value can only teleport if someone is willing to trade traditional currency in exchange on the other side.

If no one paid traditional money to your friend on the other side, he’d have no money. Also, whoever was sanctioning the country, can also very well sanction and seize the bitcoin if they’d like.

Re: Bitcoin Has Longest Losing Streak Since August in Bruising Week

#75

Bitcoin (and crypto at large) goes through these 4 year cycles repeatedly. Each time people claim its dead, "this time is different", etc etc. It peaked at the end of 2024 and now we're in mid 2026...traditionally near the bottom of the cycle. There IS someone in the White House now that seems hellbent on driving the global economy into the ground but until there's definitive evidence that this time really is differe…

Technical analysis is just astrology for finance bros.

I'm not a TA nerd, but there is a very clear pattern that has been established. Crypto moves in cycles. You don't need to draw a ton of triangles and lines all over a chart to see the cycle this has gone through over and over.

Re: Bitcoin Has Longest Losing Streak Since August in Bruising Week

#76

Bitcoin (and crypto at large) goes through these 4 year cycles repeatedly. Each time people claim its dead, "this time is different", etc etc. It peaked at the end of 2024 and now we're in mid 2026...traditionally near the bottom of the cycle. There IS someone in the White House now that seems hellbent on driving the global economy into the ground but until there's definitive evidence that this time really is differe…

There's no such thing as predicting the future when it comes to assets. Patterns aren't guarantors of future returns. If they were; the asset would be a sure-thing. Your confidence isn't warranted.

I'm well aware it's not a guarantee of future returns but as I said in my original message, this is a well established pattern. Until there's definitive evidence that it has stopped acting according to that pattern I'm going to disregard the "it's dead for real this time" crowd.

"History does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes"

Re: Bitcoin Has Longest Losing Streak Since August in Bruising Week

#77
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

or maybe they sont need an alternate criminal coin if you can now do fraud and crime in dollars with less transaction (bribe) cost.

Another idea is big players pulling out of the crypto market and putting it into the LLM market.

well I think you mean people with crypto rigs or whatever are too busy playing with LLMs.

Re: Bitcoin Has Longest Losing Streak Since August in Bruising Week

#78
post #62
post #19

Bitcoin price stories should no longer be considered on topic for HN.

They were widely considered on topic when the price was going monotonically upwards. Aside from the technical aspects of blockchain, there is a second reason to talk about the direction of the price. There's reason to think that it's falling because of other technology offerings (mostly AI, and increasingly space). So it's a meaningful indicator of the sense of investors in technologies.

I like how 15 years on, we're not even pretending that blockchain has practical uses besides buying drugs and gambling.

There's a certain refreshing clarity in this current kleptocratic moment - everyone is just openly engaged in fraud. Okay, I guess that's better than pretending they weren't.

Re: Bitcoin Has Longest Losing Streak Since August in Bruising Week

#79

Bitcoin doesn't really have any coherent reasoning behind it, that I can tell. Other investments I can have a theory (which may be wrong) and see it work. I can buy gold/silver to hedge weaker currency. I can believe a stock is going up (or the market in general). I can buy bonds. I can do Forex or Commodities based on whatever feeling if I really want to lose money. But Bitcoin doesn't really seem to correlate with…

That's circular logic on the gold/silver. You basically say gold/silver holds value because it holds value. Bitcoin and other crypto is really no more illogical than precious metals. Precious metals have a few relatively minor uses for industrial applications but really they're valuable because we've all agreed they're valuable, no different than Bitcoin.

The difference is that bitcoin is the purest form of fiat currency: it has no value beyond social consensus — nobody has aesthetic or industrial uses for random hash digests — whereas silver and gold have innate value. Even though precious metal prices are higher than could be supported based on industrial / jewelry demand alone, that provides a floor which Bitcoin simply does not have.

Re: Bitcoin Has Longest Losing Streak Since August in Bruising Week

#80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you one of those people who have much difficulty understanding even the basics of quantum computing and what it implies for cryptography and for Bitcoin after 2029?

There are many articles with sources that a Bitcoin post-quantum algorithm is in development and running on a testnet. Your fear is irrational and premature on something that is not even close to being production ready. The recent AI development and progress has fried everyone's brain that every new tech will take a financial quarter to develop. Maybe I should sell my gold also because nuclear fusion will make it ple…

Oh it will take many iterations of any testnet algorithm for it to really be sufficient against quantum computing. It will also add to the computational burden on the nodes, which has its own cost.

Moreover, many of the Bitcoin wallet types, except perhaps SegWit, readily leak their public key when a transaction is made.

All this has nothing to do with AI. The current forecast for commercial quantum computing is 2029.

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