Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T • Hacker News Board

Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T

#71

Post by mapt » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 12:10 PM UTC

tossandthrow wrote: post #41

helsinkiandrew wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The issue is that once it's in the S&P500, Russel, Nasdaq100 etc indices - everyone with a pension or tracker fund will be buying it without thinking

Yes. I am severely reducing my exposure to these indices finding alternatives. My impressions is that US investors also have a special love for the S&P500 and could likely benefit from a non-US bias.

The new thing lately is ETFs that are "Whole-Market minus Microsoft" or "Whole-Market Minus Magnificent Seven". You can achieve similar ends by combining a whole market fund with direct short positions if you're an institutional investor, but it gets a little needy of your attention and your calculator and your fees to maintain those positions as a low-cap retail investor (just buy a put a day or something?).

Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T

#72

Post by bpt3 » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 12:10 PM UTC

helsinkiandrew wrote: post #30

baxtr wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please, don’t buy the stock. It’s a classic retail investor trap

The issue is that once it's in the S&P500, Russel, Nasdaq100 etc indices - everyone with a pension or tracker fund will be buying it without thinking

I am explicitly avoiding these indices until this exploit is fixed. The lack of diversity in SPY and the like is already bad enough without these pump and dump schemes being added to the mix.

Buy alternative ETFs with similar performance and low fees. VIG is one example.

Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T

#73

Post by iso1631 » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 12:10 PM UTC

Doesn't matter, it will go into the nasdaq/s&p at $1t, passive funds will have to buy it at that price, meaning a wealth transfer from 401ks to people with pre-ipo stock

The only reason AI is worth $1T is if you believe it will continue to get better and displace all those jobs, not just in claude replacing knowlege workers, but in the outcome of that work being so transformational that physical work is also replaced.

If it does, then the entire economy is completely turned over and it doesn't really matter as nobody will have a job, and thus the entire concept of the S&P and the western economy as a whole falls to bits.

Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T

#74

Post by Luc » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 12:11 PM UTC

helsinkiandrew wrote: post #26

Matt Levine made an interesting point that the SpaceX IPO looks like a short squeeze/pump and dump [1]: 1. Do an IPO. 2. Sell a small amount (5%) to price insensitive Elon Musk-fans at a $2 trillion valuation 3. Get in all the indexes, because you are huge. 4. Unlock more stock, which the index funds have to purchase [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-06-01/the...

But he then writes: "I want to be really clear that this is the schematic maximally cynical approach, is not what SpaceX is doing, and is not actually possible."

Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T

#75

Post by chvid » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 12:11 PM UTC

Coinbase IPOed 5 years ago and is (and has mostly been) trading below its IPO price.

Perhaps private equity has become so skilled that when they finally sell to the public they leave nothing on table.

Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T

#76

Post by iso1631 » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 12:12 PM UTC

raddan wrote: post #47

pjmlp wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Beyond GenX and Boomers who is still using Facebook? We don't live forever.

The last time Facebook reported its monthly active user base they were at 3 billion. [1] So I guess the answer to your question is… everyone? [1] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326801/000132680124...

Every bot

Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T

#77

Post by surgical_fire » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 12:14 PM UTC

hparadiz wrote: post #9

epolanski wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He didn't say AI is doomed or a fluke, he said that these two AI companies aren't worth 1T in capitalization. The same way semiconductor, internet or railroad companies were not great investments regardless of how important the technology was going to be. It's still a financial investment and it's only going to pay off if bought at the right price, not at crazy multiples. I will also add: if all your moat is your lat…

Anthropic is the one company where that makes no sense. If revenue really is about 50 billion annually and growing than that means that a 20x 1 year of revenue valuation is modest compared to the shenanigans that have been going in the market. It's almost classically textbook conservative in comparison. The moat with these corporate enterprise contracts is literally your conversation history and companies aren't like…

> If revenue really is about 50 billion annually

Might I interest you in some bridges sir?

Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T

#78

Post by iso1631 » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 12:15 PM UTC

bpt3 wrote: post #72

helsinkiandrew wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The issue is that once it's in the S&P500, Russel, Nasdaq100 etc indices - everyone with a pension or tracker fund will be buying it without thinking

I am explicitly avoiding these indices until this exploit is fixed. The lack of diversity in SPY and the like is already bad enough without these pump and dump schemes being added to the mix. Buy alternative ETFs with similar performance and low fees. VIG is one example.

Not great when every other share price collapses as they get sold as funds are rebalanced.

Almost every stock in VIG is in the S&P.

Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T

#79

Post by turtlesdown11 » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 12:15 PM UTC

helsinkiandrew wrote: post #18

dansmith1919 wrote: post #4

bro was right ONCE and now every tweet is a headline

He's been wrong a few times, but has been right far more than ONCE and appears to be profitably making decisions. For example: Short dot.com stocks (55% return), short subprime mortgages (Massive return), long Gamestop 2019, short ARKK 2021, The shorts on Palantir and NVDA are probably still running (PLTR 25% in profit, NVDA 20% loss).

> long Gamestop 2019

So he really relies on zero fundamental analysis these days

Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T

#80

Post by brainwad » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 12:16 PM UTC

martinclayton wrote: post #43

What's the rationale offered by NASDAQ for their new "15-days and you're in the index" rule for these massive IPOs? Seems equivalent to removing road safety rules for the least-tested, most-powerful new vehicles only.

They want the index to be representative of the top stocks listed on the Nasdaq, even if they are brand new. The Nasdaq 100 in particular is a marketing tool for the stock exchange, it's not a particularly principled index.