U.S. midterms have a cyber problem, but it's not at the ballot box • Hacker News Board

Re: U.S. midterms have a cyber problem, but it's not at the ballot box

#71

Post by yieldcrv » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 3:17 PM UTC

paulryanrogers wrote: post #70

yieldcrv wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bet on your beliefs, and the highly liquid prediction markets make that feasible Conversing about politics has been a fool’s errand for a very long time in the US, practically this whole century so far. It has zero benefit except solidifying that you have the same the value system as people that already agree with you, or who can pretend to. The parties have failed in their primary goal of winning friends and influen…

> Bet on your beliefs, and the highly liquid prediction markets make that feasible. Why? Insiders are rich enough as it is. > Conversing about politics has been a fool’s errand for a very long time in the US, practically this whole century so far. Other people sharing their perspectives and stories is a big reason I'm no longer a Republican. > ...if your view of reality is more accurate, whether you want the accurate…

> Other people sharing their perspectives and stories is a big reason I'm no longer a Republican.

wow a developed pre-frontal lobe level of empathy, amazing. that isn't even a counterpoint without knowing what your affiliation became, because the whole point is that the crowd is leaving the parties. but thanks for sharing your journey.

> This assumes markets are fair.

doesn't assume that at all, it assumes I can extract value from them

Re: U.S. midterms have a cyber problem, but it's not at the ballot box

#72

Post by stinkbeetle » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 3:39 PM UTC

chairmansteve wrote: post #43

stinkbeetle wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And now the tools are there for anyone to generate bullshit at a scale commensurate to their wallet. Democratizing propaganda. Not sure the previous state of affairs where propaganda was accessible to the ruling class and their media corporations was better, it might have just seemed that way because there appeared to be less conflict when it came to them telling you what was in "your own best interest". I do have…

> Democratizing propaganda. Not really. A lot of the disinformation is generated by authoritarian state actors.

Yes really. Those "authoritarian state actors" were already "generating misinformation", but even if it wasn't, the fact that it is more accessible to more people means it is democratizing.

Re: U.S. midterms have a cyber problem, but it's not at the ballot box

#73

Post by stinkbeetle » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 3:44 PM UTC

customguy wrote: post #39

stinkbeetle wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And now the tools are there for anyone to generate bullshit at a scale commensurate to their wallet. Democratizing propaganda. Not sure the previous state of affairs where propaganda was accessible to the ruling class and their media corporations was better, it might have just seemed that way because there appeared to be less conflict when it came to them telling you what was in "your own best interest". I do have…

As if this polarization does anything but atomize and disenfranchise people even further. As if people cannot communicate and work together with people who aren't in the exact same cult as them are more than LARPing slaves spitting on their own equipment that shows cartoons of the other during their 24/7 of hate. As if the people and companies whose fortunes are exploding further are "gnashing their teeth". As if peo…

You appear to be unhinged. After you calm down, I would be happy to overlook this thing you have written here and pretend it never happened if you would like to attempt a more rational conversation about my previous comment.

Re: U.S. midterms have a cyber problem, but it's not at the ballot box

#74

Post by paulryanrogers » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 4:55 PM UTC

yieldcrv wrote: post #71

paulryanrogers wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Bet on your beliefs, and the highly liquid prediction markets make that feasible. Why? Insiders are rich enough as it is. > Conversing about politics has been a fool’s errand for a very long time in the US, practically this whole century so far. Other people sharing their perspectives and stories is a big reason I'm no longer a Republican. > ...if your view of reality is more accurate, whether you want the accurate…

> Other people sharing their perspectives and stories is a big reason I'm no longer a Republican. wow a developed pre-frontal lobe level of empathy, amazing. that isn't even a counterpoint without knowing what your affiliation became, because the whole point is that the crowd is leaving the parties. but thanks for sharing your journey. > This assumes markets are fair. doesn't assume that at all, it assumes I can extr…

> that isn't even a counterpoint without knowing what your affiliation became

In early 2017 I changed from Republican to Democrat.

> seemingly mentally incapable of noticing absolutely nothing has changed or will change in the composition of seats.

US Senate and House majorities have tipped over to the other party repeatedly over the past 20y. Surely that's more than 'nothing', even if not some overwhelming wave.

> wow a developed pre-frontal lobe level of empathy, amazing

Being condescending and suggesting folks are mentally incapable (in any sense) won't help you make friends or encourage readers to take your ideas more seriously. Unless perhaps your only goal is pumping prediction markets.

Re: U.S. midterms have a cyber problem, but it's not at the ballot box

#75

Post by tstrimple » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 5:34 PM UTC

avaer wrote: post #3

It's interesting to have a conversation with people over politics these days, sometimes it's like people don't live in the same reality anymore. It's probably not far from the truth. To a first approximation, nothing is verified, people see a number on social media as a proxy for accuracy. Even if it's completely wrong, it doesn't matter because you're among friends. Memes let insane ideas spread like a virus, the on…

We've seen what it means for elections. Donald Trump was elected while claiming "Haitians are eating your pets and dogs" among tons of other absolutely insane things. The conservative party fought a war against education and they won resoundingly. The US is a deeply stupid and ignorant and, now especially, corrupt country.

Re: U.S. midterms have a cyber problem, but it's not at the ballot box

#76

Post by tstrimple » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 5:36 PM UTC

Retric wrote: post #8

loeg wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And now the tools are there for anyone to generate bullshit at a scale commensurate to their wallet. This was always true, right? With enough $, you can employ N writers. But the constant factor is smaller than it once was.

Only for relatively low values of N. It’s really difficult to scale organizations up and down for election cycles. Historically you’d quickly reach a point where each additional writer was more expensive than the last.

They aren't scaled down between election cycles. The media ecosystem is almost fully captured by the billionaire class. We've seen directly how they change coverage and policies tilting things. Fox News never shut down between elections. They are always in campaign mode and the money keeps rolling in.

Re: U.S. midterms have a cyber problem, but it's not at the ballot box

#77

Post by Retric » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 5:48 PM UTC

tstrimple wrote: post #76

Retric wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only for relatively low values of N. It’s really difficult to scale organizations up and down for election cycles. Historically you’d quickly reach a point where each additional writer was more expensive than the last.

They aren't scaled down between election cycles. The media ecosystem is almost fully captured by the billionaire class. We've seen directly how they change coverage and policies tilting things. Fox News never shut down between elections. They are always in campaign mode and the money keeps rolling in.

That’s the low N I was talking about.

As long as you can use those writers to operate a business near profitably then they are really cheap, but FOX can’t profitably employ 100,000 writers.

Re: U.S. midterms have a cyber problem, but it's not at the ballot box

#78

Post by OkayPhysicist » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 6:13 PM UTC

xtiansimon wrote: post #68

avaer wrote: post #3

It's interesting to have a conversation with people over politics these days, sometimes it's like people don't live in the same reality anymore. It's probably not far from the truth. To a first approximation, nothing is verified, people see a number on social media as a proxy for accuracy. Even if it's completely wrong, it doesn't matter because you're among friends. Memes let insane ideas spread like a virus, the on…

I recently watched a film about Umberto Eco, Umberto Eco: A Library of the World (2022). (It has an eerie sense of “last words” from the “maestro” of letters as the film was produced after his death). I’m therefore unsure who to credit with the assemblage or arching themes. Nevertheless, one is about the internet. I perceived in his words a duality—-the internet is “limitless memory” as well as “lost memory”. And not…

IMO, the interconnection of the internet is heavily to blame for how divisive politics have gotten, but I offer a different method of action: Prior to the internet, most people only regularly interacted with people in a relatively limited cultural band. When venturing out of that cultural band, you largely came across people interacting on heightened levels of good behavior, because of in-person hospitality norms. We might have had assumptions based on stereotypes of other groups, where a Bay Area city slicker might think of the average Kentuckian as a bit backward perhaps a bit bigoted, and the Kentuckian might have imagined the Bay Area type as a bit pretentious, but any individual of the other group you happened to meet probably seemed fine.

The internet blew that illusion up. Rather than dispelling stereotypes, transparency confirmed them, to an even greater extent than everyone thought. Urban people got to see first hand that rural areas were full of deranged bigots who are perfectly primed to believe wild lies about foreigners eating people's pets, and the rural people saw that the urbanites really dismissed them out of hand as speed bumps on the path of progress. Paradoxically, both sides had been imagining that the political divide was smaller than it really was.

Re: U.S. midterms have a cyber problem, but it's not at the ballot box

#79

Post by yieldcrv » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 6:19 PM UTC

paulryanrogers wrote: post #74

yieldcrv wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Other people sharing their perspectives and stories is a big reason I'm no longer a Republican. wow a developed pre-frontal lobe level of empathy, amazing. that isn't even a counterpoint without knowing what your affiliation became, because the whole point is that the crowd is leaving the parties. but thanks for sharing your journey. > This assumes markets are fair. doesn't assume that at all, it assumes I can extr…

> that isn't even a counterpoint without knowing what your affiliation became In early 2017 I changed from Republican to Democrat. > seemingly mentally incapable of noticing absolutely nothing has changed or will change in the composition of seats. US Senate and House majorities have tipped over to the other party repeatedly over the past 20y. Surely that's more than 'nothing', even if not some overwhelming wave. > w…

the parties are losing voters and unaffiliated (independent) is the largest voting bloc now while having nearly zero representation in Congress, I think there is 1 independent current seat the House and 2 independents in the Senate

partisans are loud, berating the unaffiliated for not adding power to their cause-du-jour as if the unaffiliated are the one other side themselves. loud enough that the unaffiliated may not actually know that they are in the majority now because most people are independently having the same reaction to partisans.

my goal is pointing out that its the majority opinion now.

but you might be on to something, both partisans and non-partisans don’t notice that partisans blocs are minority voting blocs now.

Re: U.S. midterms have a cyber problem, but it's not at the ballot box

#80

Post by AngryData » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 6:24 PM UTC

himata4113 wrote: post #44

reddozen wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I have never voted and never will. Thank you for putting the reason at the top to disregard the rest of your post-hoc justification. Your prescriptions literally don't matter because you will never engage with the political system.

I don't vote because I am uneducated enough in local politics to do so I would only be corrupting the vote and dilluting votes that are that of people who did their research. This is an opinionated take, but voting just to vote is pointless and does more harm than good. I guess I should have positioned that at the end instead of making that the opening statement.

I would agree, but no information voters who don't even think about that fact are already a large percentage of voters. Just being able to recognize your own flaws puts you above many others.