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Where does next-token prediction leave us?

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Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#71

Post by birdsongs »

osigurdson wrote: post #45

The title is a little misleading as it sounds like it might hint at the end state of next token prediction - i.e. will we reach AGI with it and so on. Instead, this is entirely about "means of production" and "class war" stuff. While that may be coming, it isn't clear that this is the most likely outcome, its just the most pessimistic one. The author might as well have included that it will "be the end of the human r…

I would argue we're already in a pseudo class war. Most of us in tech are isolated so far, but the middle class is disappearing worldwide, and the wealth gulf is growing.

Most propaganda seems to be centered on increasing division along gender / race / sexuality boundaries, so that infighting keeps people from looking up for too long.

But I might just be overly radicalised.

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#72

Post by dyauspitr »

goatlover wrote: post #68
dyauspitr wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

One would hope progress directly benefits more than the tech CEOs and investors. They're the ones going around heralding fully automated societies and god-level AIs. Open minded people also recognize the dangers of technological disruption. Let us not forget how social media went from being viewed as utopian to dystopian in a decade.

Social media offered no value. If LLMs get about 5x better at what they do they offer a lot in terms of medical discoveries, governance, dirt cheap labor, fully automated raw material to end product pipelines, automated farming and the list goes on and on.

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#73

Post by cluckindan »

suzzer99 wrote: post #65
rootusrootus wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some get it, though. When I quipped that Claude may eventually replace me, my manager was visibly shaken as he mentioned it would probably come for him first. I feel better about it than I did a few months ago. Still seems like there’s something missing that is going to be hard to make happen. I forsee humans being necessary for a long while yet.

The billionaires building doomsday bunkers get it.

”We drop the bomb ourselves.”

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#75

Post by Melamune »

LLMs reveal an important truth that we were already deeply aware of. With this cognitive offloading, the interests that drive us lose their meaning. If friction disappears, there is no longer any desire, pleasure, longing, obstacle, or demand. It is indolence, and it goes by the name of apathy. All these promises without even reaching an ideal! Could it simply be that this ideal is becoming impoverished? The prevailing view is that « AI makes us stupid », so it’s actually a good thing if only the wealthy were still capable of using it. I doubt that after having experienced deprivation, shame, and death; as well as their positive counterparts, we will ever fail to overcome entropy. We will adapt, for that is all we know and can do by default. What is given without effort does not transform.

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#76

Post by Gigachad »

fny wrote: post #69
overgard wrote: post #40

I have a more depressing theory. I think class is part of it, but I'm starting to suspect that a shockingly large number of people lack the critical thinking skills needed to think out the implications of this stuff. I say that because I've met so many people of the managerial class that seem to think it's going to replace the annoying people they have to pay, but somehow they don't think it's going to come for them…

I don't think its entirely class. I've met many people who have convinced themselves they have some special sauce--even in software! And even those who are insulated like doctors and plumbers don't realize they're still at risk from second order effects. What happens when half of their customers are broke? That possibility is not an exaggeration. Even if everyone re-skills over night, people will default on their mor…

Even if you are a plumber and we don’t automate plumbing, you’ll have half the population displaced and switching to plumbing. Everything that isn’t automated will be over saturated.

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#77

Post by ares623 »

Thanks for writing this.

It has really left a bad taste (to say it politely) seeing people I consider colleagues, friends, leaders support something like this. These people would spend hours/days/weeks designing systems reasoning through tradeoffs and yet for something like this they can't spend even two seconds thinking through what it all leads to.

The usual justification is "someone using AI will replace you". I wonder if they can actually think through that for more than a few iterations. You can visualize for-loops and recursion in your head but you can't visualize what a few iterations of "someone using AI will replace you" _actually_ means?

My usual go to line is: "I will see you in the breadlines of the future comrade. At least one of us will have their head held up a little bit higher."

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#78

Post by mazurnification »

suzzer99 wrote: post #65
rootusrootus wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some get it, though. When I quipped that Claude may eventually replace me, my manager was visibly shaken as he mentioned it would probably come for him first. I feel better about it than I did a few months ago. Still seems like there’s something missing that is going to be hard to make happen. I forsee humans being necessary for a long while yet.

The billionaires building doomsday bunkers get it.

No they do not - sheltering make sense only if there is anything worth waiting for on the other side.

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#79

Post by energy123 »

supriyo-biswas wrote: post #66
energy123 wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Still seems like there’s something missing that is going to be hard to make happen. I think part of the negative societal response to AI is the uncertainty of it all. AI killing me, taking my job, augmenting me, curing me of old age, all seem like viable futures within my lifetime given the information I have. People want to know it's going to be okay and even the smartest experts can't credibly promise them that.

Realistically, I've only seen evidence about AI taking people's jobs, as is the case with LLMs, and in the case of robotics, killing people. Augmentation has always been something that gets talked about in research labs but I've never seen an actual product; and curing disease and old age is the domain of more traditional ML methods. I know Altman has been going around selling visions of curing cancer and the like, b…

I meant augmentation in an abstract way, like making you more productive and freeing up your time from drudgery. This is the sales pitch that AI labs have started to pivot towards in their communication with the public after realizing the public don't want the creation of Skynet. There's a tension there because they want to sell the other vision (full replacement of labor) to investors so they can raise capital for DC builds at reasonable financing costs.
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