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AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise

thestateofbrand.com

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Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise

#71
post #18

I think I'm going to puke if I see one more "It's not X. It's Y." phrase or the word "load-bearing" used metaphorically.

I guess the good news may be that if/when there is a major pricing correction, that many of the people using free or $20/mo subscriptions to generate social media commentary may balk at the real cost and go back to writing it themselves.

One can at least hope.

Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise

#72
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Managers in my org love using it in "their" Slack messages.

I've come to realize that folks are including "ai-slop" in their ~public use of AI to intentionally signal to others that they're using AI. To some, that signal results in revulsion. To others, that signal results in approval. In my opinion, the approval signal comes from investors, board members, c-suite, and now management. They want us to use AI? Let's make sure they know we are.

I used to think that signalling that I am not using AI would be a good thing, and that people would appreciate that, but now all my public profiles are AI.

Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise

#73
post #26

Article is mistaken these subs are not available to businesses. Companies are paying much closer to API prices. The strategy is to get you accustomed to infinite tokens on your personal sub and bet that behavior transfers to work.

They are available. Seats for team or enterprise plans cost more than the retail prices, but they are fixed prices with resetting usage limits. You can assign seats to members that are the equivalent of $20/$100/$200/mo plans. You can also do everything metered. There are multiple ways to buy.

Who is selling these with enterprise trappings? What you're describing evaporated 2+ months ago. Everything is metered for enterprise users now. If there happens to be a stray vendor offering this I'd wager 2 things. 1) it's about to be phased out. 2) model limits will be in place so even that $200 plan won't go very far.

Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise

#74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is, people see "they're not profitable once you account for training" and equate that to "AI will go away soon" But if all the AI companies stopped training new models, they would all instantly become profitable (and stick around) The thing that makes them unprofitable, is having to compete (which means training models). If / when enough companies exit the market, the cost to compete goes down and you end…

Sure, but if companies don't exit the market and FOSS alternatives don't end up being unable to get near them in quality, they have to keep spending on training. And conversely, if the market becomes uncompetitive and FOSS sucks, the winners of the AI arms race are very strongly incentivised to stick their prices up anyway...

> if companies don't exit the market and FOSS alternatives don't end up being unable to get near them in quality, they have to keep spending on training

Eh, the AI companies still have lots of datacentres. For the guys who funded with equity, they could collapse down to just running those as utilities. (For the guys who funded with debt, they'd have to restructure.)

From the customer's perspective, this situation shouldn't result in a cost spike. (Consolidation, on the other hand, would. But that's a separate argument from the one the article attemptes to make.)

Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise

#75
Replacing your workers with AI:

--You lose control over their "salary"

--You lose control over their "schedule"

--Your company becomes reliant on another party that does not share your interests or values, and can stop working for you on a whim for any reason

But AI is definitely good and trade unions are definitely bad, apparently...

Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise

#76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do we know they are making a profit though? They could be subsidizing use to build market share the same way. They might not have billions, but at the volumes they are selling maybe they’ve got the cash to do it. Even if they are “profitable” how many Uber drivers are “profitable” because they aren’t correctly calculating asset depreciation. Maybe these guys are doing the same thing. Maybe it’s a lot of people who al…

also, it's very much possible that the chinese companies get heavy investments from the state. Since it's very hard to get this info we have no idea wether they really make a profit or not.

I agree, and find that very plausible. I mean, for the CCP a few billions to subsidize domestic AI companies is a tiny investment with a potential huge payoff. It prevents (or at least make it harder for) US companies to build a monopoly on LLM tech and it could help popping the bubble which would weaken the US economy. In fact, if I remember correctly, the AI infrastructure build-out is what is keeping the US from a technical recession.

Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise

#77

Brad Gerstner confirmed that tokens aren't being sold at a loss. Whatever the formula, API + Subscription split, the companies are making a profit on net token sale. They maybe running at loss after all the salaries and stock comp, but tokens are in profit now.

In other words, AI companies have positive earnings before expenses

Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise

#78
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's like witnessing a rocket using the most powerful engine on Earth then once it escaped orbit turn off the engine and said "It is flying without power!". Yes, sure, right now it is ... but that's NOT how it got here. There are trillions invested to recoup and at most billions in sales. It doesn't add up to tokens making a profit any time soon.

> There are trillions invested to recoup and at most billions in sales. It doesn't add up to tokens making a profit any time soon But this isn't "a ticking time bomb for enterprise." It's an issue for the AI companies' investors.

Not really, because investors will sooner or later want to see real returns on what they invested. Tokens are suddenly not dirt cheap and enterprises are screwed.

It's like selling dope, once they're addicted, a dealer could turn the screw on them

Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise

#79
Every AI subscription is a ticking time bomb for the frontier provider; within a few years we will be running local models as good as today’s frontier models with almost no cost burden. The floor will fall out of the enterprise market for all the frontier companies.

Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise

#80
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There are trillions invested to recoup and at most billions in sales. It doesn't add up to tokens making a profit any time soon But this isn't "a ticking time bomb for enterprise." It's an issue for the AI companies' investors.

Not really, because investors will sooner or later want to see real returns on what they invested. Tokens are suddenly not dirt cheap and enterprises are screwed. It's like selling dope, once they're addicted, a dealer could turn the screw on them

That's why it's an issue for investors. Their investment may not payout. But the things that were built will still have been built and available to sell for related purposes, the models that were trained will still be trained, and so on.

If things don't end up working out a lot of people have already been (and in the future will be) paid. It's the investors that will lose out, not the subscriber.

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