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UAE to leave OPEC

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Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#71

Post by redwood »

nixon_why69 wrote: post #31
redwood wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you underestimate the impact of a blockade on Iran's ports... Iran (and China) can maintain this posture for ballpark a month or so more before economic mayhem leads to another popular uprising. Time is in the US's hands up until the midterms and even then until January

What happens when Chinese flagged ships dare us to shoot them?

Do you mean Chinese military vessels? Or do you mean oil tankers? Oil tankers don't require you to shoot you simply commandeer.

If China were to involve its Navy in opening the straight that's exactly what Good outcome could look like

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#72

Post by alephnerd »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #54
alephnerd wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Egypt Already aligned with the KSA [0] > India Already aligned with the UAE [1] --- IMO the Pakistan aspect is overstated. This is a reversion to the norm of KSA-Pakistan relations before Imran Khan completely destroyed it by fully aligning behind Qatar and Turkiye when both were competing against KSA. [0] - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/5/egypt-says-it-shares... [1] - https://thediplomat.com/2026/01/india-…

> Egypt is aligned with the KSA It’s complicated [1]. My low-key guess is cutting off Pakistan was intended to send a message to Cairo. > Already aligned with the UAE Aligning. To my understanding there isn’t a treaty yet. > the Pakistan aspect is overstated Pakistan isn’t the cause. It’s the canary. These moves happening in quick succession (strategically, over the last year, and tactically, in the timing of these a…

> My low-key guess is cutting off Pakistan was intended to send a message to Cairo

Abu Dhabi and Cairo have been misaligned for years since the Sudan Civil War began (UAE backs the RSF and KSA+Egypt back the Army) as well as the UAE backing Abiy Ahmed in Ethiopia at the expense of their traditional partner KSA.

> To my understanding there isn’t a treaty yet.

This is as close as it will get. New Delhi doesn't "sign" defense treaties unless pushed to a corner, because it reduces maneuverability.

The Pakistan-KSA alignment was already cooking after IK was overthrown. I think I mentioned it before on HN (need to find the post I wrote) but given the primacy Pakistan has had in US-Iran negotiations well before the war as well the PRC's increasingly miffed attitude at Pakistan following the CPEC attacks, the US most likely brokered a back-room realignment between PK and KSA.

A neutral-to-ambivalent India with a pro-America Pakistan is better for the US than a completely aligned India with a pro-China Pakistan.

TODO: citations

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#73

Post by 2901Asg »

The UAE was talking about getting a credit swap line from the US. It could be the condition.

Or it is also part of a long term plan of the US to control all energy routes. It will keep Hormuz closed and try a new pipeline via the UAE to the Gulf of Oman.

Fragmentation of the energy producers is another goal. New Alaskan LNG projects have been approved and are all the rage among senators:

https://xcancel.com/alaskalng

A happy coincidence:

"Alaska LNG will deliver vital #EnergySecurity for our military and allies in the Pacific. Thank you @SenDanSullivan for your continued engagement and advocacy."

The US would control the following:

- Baltic sea via pipeline threats.

- Corridor from the Caspian sea from Azerbaijan through Armenia to Turkey.

- Venezuela.

- UAE corridor to the Gulf of Oman.

Probably much more than that. Grabbing the Arctic route via Greenland has failed so far.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#74

Post by delecti »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #20

Context: (1) “The United Arab Emirates,” today “made a shock request of [Pakistan] — repay $3.5bn immediately” [1]. (2) Saudi-Emirati relations were at an all-time low before the Iran War [2]. (Saudi Arabia just bailed Pakistan out of its Emirati loan. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan agreed a mutual-defence treaty last year [3].) Put together, we’re seeing an Emirati-Israeli axis emerging to balance Saudi hegemony in the G…

> Put together, we’re seeing an Emirati-Israeli axis emerging to balance Saudi hegemony in the Gulf and Iranian hegemony over the Persian Gulf. I’d expect to see an Emirati deal with Egypt and India next if this hypothesis is correct.

Don't Egypt and Israel hate each other though? Could UAE feasibly align with both?

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#75

Post by WarmWash »

cj wrote: post #49
1970-01-01 wrote: post #40

This is how peak oil happens. Without a healty cartel, oil is doomed. Solar, wind, geothermal, hydro, nuclear. These are more than ripe to disrupt energy into the 21st century.

> Without a healty cartel, oil is doomed Why/how? Without a healthy cartel, wouldn't prices go down? Cheaper oil means less adoption of alternate energy sources.

The goal of the cartel was to stabilize prices right in the sweet spot to keep the world addicted. Too low and players start losing money, too high and people switch away from oil, too much volatility, and people switch away from oil.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#76

Post by 21asdffdsa12 »

defrost wrote: post #62
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #20

Context: (1) “The United Arab Emirates,” today “made a shock request of [Pakistan] — repay $3.5bn immediately” [1]. (2) Saudi-Emirati relations were at an all-time low before the Iran War [2]. (Saudi Arabia just bailed Pakistan out of its Emirati loan. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan agreed a mutual-defence treaty last year [3].) Put together, we’re seeing an Emirati-Israeli axis emerging to balance Saudi hegemony in the G…

As I recall, it was Saudi Arabia that largely bank rolled Pakistan's "not party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty" weapons program [Ω](?) . [Ω] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan_and_weapons_of_mass_d... So there's that.

We all live in a yellow cake submarine..

Its a pakistani submarine, with exclusive saudi-royalty members on the bridge.

We should build a city that is a statistical bunker- basically a line, for the edge case of jihadist insurgents getting the forbidden eggs in the cake.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#77

Post by cess11 »

yalogin wrote: post #52
cess11 wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The very short explanation is that they kind of want to be not-Saud and has trouble cooperating with Saudi Arabia for a rather long time, not just over fossil fuels but also in Yemen. Recently the UAE faction in Yemen was forcefully reined in by the house of Saud, and OPEC kind of prioritises different things than the UAE, i.e. not pushing profits hard in the short to medium term instead focusing on stability and pre…

Didn’t we see reports that Saudi Arabia was supporting and pushing Israel and U.S. to attack Iran?

That was "anonymous sources".

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#78

Post by leonidasv »

christkv wrote: post #2

They represent 4.5% of oil production it seems. It will be interesting to see what this means longterm.

"Oil" is not a homogeneous thing. There are different grades of oil and refineries are built to process specific grades of oil. UAE produces the so-called "Dubai Crude" oil grade, which is very sought after.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#79

Post by Raed667 »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #63
pjc50 wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someone's going to have to provide me with an explainer of how many different proxy forces are involved in Yemen. I can barely keep up with Lebanon and have forgotten Syria.

> an explainer of how many different proxy forces are involved in Yemen RealLifeLore has been doing a decent job covering it [1]. The broad summary is you have the Saudi-backed unity government, the Iranian-backed Houthis, who claim all of Yemen but practically want North Yemen, and the UAE-backed STC, who also claim all of Yemen but practically want South Yemen. Emiratis bring the Israelis to the party. The Iranians…

Johnny Harris has a pretty decent video on the topic as well

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qsO-rULEfrk

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#80

Post by quietbritishjim »

defrost wrote: post #62
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #20

Context: (1) “The United Arab Emirates,” today “made a shock request of [Pakistan] — repay $3.5bn immediately” [1]. (2) Saudi-Emirati relations were at an all-time low before the Iran War [2]. (Saudi Arabia just bailed Pakistan out of its Emirati loan. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan agreed a mutual-defence treaty last year [3].) Put together, we’re seeing an Emirati-Israeli axis emerging to balance Saudi hegemony in the G…

As I recall, it was Saudi Arabia that largely bank rolled Pakistan's "not party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty" weapons program [Ω](?) . [Ω] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan_and_weapons_of_mass_d... So there's that.

> ... bank rolled Pakistan's not party to ...

They bank rolled Pakistan's not party to the treaty? Sorry I can't parse this sentence.

Did you munge two sentences i.e. Saudi Arabia bankrolled Pakistan's nuclear weapons, and also Pakistan is not party to the treaty?

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