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ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

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Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#72
On a tangent and out of curiosity: The image of "The electromagnetic spectrum" shows "London radio waves" on the far right (i.e. longest wavelengths).

Is this the correct term? Why do these long radio waves have the name "London"?

Unfortunately all that I get googling the term is a guide to local FM station frequencies.

Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#74
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> aren't server CPUs only like 25% of the total market? Yes and no. If just formally calculate, yes, servers are small market volumes. But, they are much less constrained financially, than private person, so from same fab one could earn much more money if sell to server market, than if sell to consumer market.

I don't think that's correct, server chips aren't really "more expensive" than consumer chips when you correctly account for performance. Older-gen server chips have comparable performance to new top-of-the-line consumer chips and sell for a similar price. Newer-gen server chips in turn are priced at a premium over the current value of the older-gen, to account for their higher performance. The lower financial constr…

For many years until about a decade ago (more precisely until the launch of the Intel Skylake Server processors) the server CPUs had a performance per dollar comparable to desktop CPUs so the expensive server CPUs were expensive because of their higher performance.

But since then the prices of server CPUs have ballooned and now their performance per dollar is many times worse than for desktop CPUs. Server CPUs have very good performance per watt, but the same performance per watt is achieved with desktop CPUs by underclocking them.

The only advantage of server CPUs is that they aggregate in a single socket the equivalent of many desktop CPUs, including not only the aggregate number of cores, but also the aggregate number of memory channels and the aggregate number of PCIe lanes. Thus a server computer becomes equivalent with a cluster of desktop computers that would be interconnected by network interfaces much faster than the typically available Ethernet links.

While for embarrassingly parallel tasks a server computer will cost many times more than a cluster of desktop computers with the same performance, it will have a much less disadvantage or it might even have a better performance/cost ratio for tasks with a lot of interprocess/interthread communication, where the tight coupling between the many cores hosted by the same socket ensures a lower latency and a higher throughput for such communication.

The owners of datacenters are willing to pay the much higher prices of modern server CPUs because the consolidation into a single server of multiple old servers brings economies in other components, due to less coolers, less power supplies, less racks, simpler maintenance and administration, etc.

While the prices of server CPUs at retail are huge, the biggest costumers, like cloud owners, can get very large discounts, so for them the difference in comparison with desktop CPUs is not as great as for SMEs and individuals. The large discounts that Intel was forced to accept during the last few years, to avoid losing too much of the market to AMD, were the cause why Intel's server CPU division has lost many billions of $.

Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#75

It is unavoidable that, at some point, China will have its own matching or better machine because they obviously how incredibly strategically important it is.

The straregic importance is vastly over hyped. Maybe by people who want to sell chips. Actual physical feature size shrinkage rate has dramatically slowed from maybe a decade ago. making more efficient algorithms or architectures will beat out trying to fight physics.

Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#76
post #65
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We could have more ASML's immediately if we eradicate the desire to covet technology for one in-group, over another. > reshaped society Invalidate all of ASML's patents = get cheaper chips, sooner. It is intellectual property which gives some of us the ability to build these things and sell them to others - get rid of this phony concept and we can have more nice things...

That's a great way to lower the cost of the current generation of the tech while ensuring there is no next generation of the tech.

I don't think that makes any sense whatsoever.

If everyone could make these machines, there'd be more of these machines.

There are so many examples of this out there, already, that I find this specious "no next generation" argument to be either simply coming from bias, or ignorance.

For sure, we only care about Taiwan because there is one Taiwan. End patents: no more Taiwan problem.

Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#78

It is unavoidable that, at some point, China will have its own matching or better machine because they obviously how incredibly strategically important it is.

That question is discussed in the article.

“Retaining the best workers is especially crucial in an area like photolithography, where a huge amount of tacit knowledge is used to assemble its machines. An ASML engineer once told He Rongming, the founder of Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment, one of China’s top ASML competitors, that the company wouldn’t be able to replicate ASML’s products even if it had the blueprints. He suggested that ASML’s products reflected ‘decades, if not centuries’ of knowledge and experience. ASML’s Chinese competitors have systematically attempted to hire former ASML engineers, and there is at least one documented case of a former ASML employee unlawfully handing over proprietary information. But none of this appears to have narrowed the gap.”

Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#79
post #69
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We could have more ASML's immediately if we eradicate the desire to covet technology for one in-group, over another. > reshaped society Invalidate all of ASML's patents = get cheaper chips, sooner. It is intellectual property which gives some of us the ability to build these things and sell them to others - get rid of this phony concept and we can have more nice things...

The article might disagree. See the subsection, "The importance of tacit knowledge". OTOH, if that tacit knowledge is indeed so critical then there's less risk (e.g. regarding future investment incentives) to narrowing patent protections. OTOOH, ASML's supply chain is deep and complex, and the patent portfolio is presumably similarly diffuse, which makes it difficult to analyze or even, short of a complete patent reg…

ASML's supply chain is deep and complex - and secret. But if it were F/OSS (just imagine it) from sand to chip, that complexity would have a wider scope of human attention applied to it.

What is happening with ASML now, once happened with the wheel.

Think about that.

Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#80
post #37

It looks complicated but I suspect that 90% of what I see in that picture is just a giant refrigerator.

Not even close.

Gemini tells me: calling an ASML machine a "giant refrigerator" is actually a pretty sophisticated observation. While it doesn't store milk, a massive portion of that plumbing is dedicated to thermal management and vacuum systems. (...)
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