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Traders place $760M bet on falling oil ahead of Hormuz announcement
Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war
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Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war
#72What's the statute of limitations on such things? Because it won't be prosecuted by 2029 but could be afterwards Personally I think it's a bigger problem when the President sues his own government for billions and then orders them to pay it out Because -that- is not an official act. It could be prosecuted but no-one will touch it even after 2029
Unless somebody snitches there's no real way to prosecute insider trading. You can say you just felt like making a trade, or that you read one of Trump's posts the moment he put it up on Truth Social and you just happened to have the trade ready to go. Unless they're absolute morons, the people doing insider trading for large sums of money will have already built a strong alibi.
I'm not convinced there won't be someone with a chip on their shoulder eager to snitch. Trump has been known to leave folks out to dry once they're used up (for example, Ruby Giuliani and Mike Lindell). Just today there's been discussion about how Kash Patel feels like he's on the chopping block:
Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war
#73There’s a recent Patrick Boyle video which puts it aptly: prediction markets are a wealth transfer from retail investors to trading algorithms and people with security clearances. Anyway, one thing I don’t understand yet is how new markets are created. They aren’t user generated, so how did an “Iran strike” market exist to begin with?
> one thing I don’t understand yet is how new markets are created. They aren’t user generated, so how did an “Iran strike” market exist to begin with?
Having the US presidents kids as multimillion dollar investors in the platforms and on the advisory board of one them would be a good place to look
Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war
#74It’s all manipulation and everyone knows it but when the voices are coming from inside the house, who’s going to investigate? If anything every tech company in the whole flow is going to support and add custom flows for them - “to get on their good side”
Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war
#75These articles always focus on "Yes" bets. An insider betting "No" might get by completely unnoticed.
Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war
#76Yet more evidence of the rapid disassembly of the social contract and our collective ethics, aided of course by unregulated tech. If you work for – or are involved in the funding of – these unregulated gambling and insider trading platforms, you should be ashamed of yourself. Your greed and lack of concern for the health of the human world you live in is sickening. You can get bag after bag but it will never fill the…
The biggest sums involved appear to be on the oil futures market. That market has existed for a long time (half a century to a century depending on the sophistication you measure). If this is is a novel occurrence it cannot be the platform that 'caused' it.
I think it's just that we create useful tools: futures, the pre-emptive pardon, and so on. Then people figure out how to use those tools to enrich themselves in ways we did not anticipate. It's just a question of how we fix our machinery in this cat and mouse game or if it is fixable at all.
Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war
#77It's deeply American how so many of these articles about Kalshi or Polymarket frame the issue as something that can be solved on the American end with the stroke of a pen, especially in a multipolar world where American sanctions increasingly fail.
These markets are global with global demand and many of the insiders are on the receiving end of American foreign policy. If an Iranian with a starlink sees a b-2 spirit fly over their house that information will find its way to somebody who will profit from that knowledge, it's just part of the new information economy.
Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war
#78Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not knowing who are the insiders and who is the dumb flow is like the fundamental problem of hft
You can trade on non-public information if you obtain that information unintentionally. Now you have to be able to prove it’s unintentional if the question came up. A real experience example of this is if you work in an office building and your neighboring company, a public company, is being raided by the FBI. Can you use that information to take a position in the market? Yes, according to multiple attorneys we spoke…
intentionally/unintentionally is not relevant.
it's legal to follow FBI cars and see who they raid so as to make trades. you could even have a hedge fund specialized on this. it's called alternative data
you can even be a regular employer of a public company and trade based on information sent on internal emails.
the only thing illegal is to be a designated insider - typically a restricted group of people with access to sensitive information
Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war
#79Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war
#80Earlier quoted context omitted.
Most gamblers prescribe to the cost sunk fallacy and keep 'one more time'ing it to bankruptcy. Math wins over your feels every time.
If you follow your math, such gambling losers don't really have that much money to bet on an ongoing basis. The ones who support the losing side on prediction markets are the ones who usually do fine, but sometimes are taken by surprise.
Problem gamblers routinely take out loans, mortgage major assets, max out credit cards, and steal from their employers to fund their habits.