Live data from Hacker News

The economics of software teams: Why most engineering orgs are flying blind

viktorcessan.com

71–80 of 299 posts

Re: The economics of software teams: Why most engineering orgs are flying blind

#71
post #46

One interesting factor that I rarely see discussed is this: Let's say a DevOps person does some improvement to internal tooling and a task that devs had to oversee manually now is automated. Every dev spent about 2 hours per week doing this task and now they don't have to anymore. Now, have we saved 2 hours of salary per dev per week? Not sure. Because it totally depends on what they do instead. Are they utilizing tw…

[flagged]

Re: The economics of software teams: Why most engineering orgs are flying blind

#72
I thought it was a good article, till I saw the Slack example.

The copy doesn’t even remotely grasp the scale of what the actual Slack sofware does in terms of scale, relaiability, observability, monitorability, maintability and pretty sure also functionality.

Author only writes about the non-dev work as difference, which seems like he doesn’t know what he’s talking about in all, and what running an application at that scale actually means.

This "clone" doesn’t get you any closer to an actualy Slack copy than a white piece of paper

Re: The economics of software teams: Why most engineering orgs are flying blind

#73

> A messy codebase is still cheaper to send ten agents through than to staff a team around. And even if the agents need ten days to reason through an unfamiliar system, that is still faster and cheaper than most development teams operating today. I’ve been on 2 failed projects that have been entirely AI generated and it’s not that agents slow down and you can just send more agents to work on projects for longer, it’s…

Same here. I have now deleted 43k and counting lines of my codebase. There is no point in putting any AI code into production anymore as it almost always uses none or the wrong abstractions.

When you try to throw more agents at the problem or even more verification layer, you just kill your agility even if they would still be able to work

Re: The economics of software teams: Why most engineering orgs are flying blind

#75
post #72

I thought it was a good article, till I saw the Slack example. The copy doesn’t even remotely grasp the scale of what the actual Slack sofware does in terms of scale, relaiability, observability, monitorability, maintability and pretty sure also functionality. Author only writes about the non-dev work as difference, which seems like he doesn’t know what he’s talking about in all, and what running an application at th…

I had the same experience (though I agree with other comments that the numbers are a little optimistic in terms of variance; I think there's a huge amount of variance in product work, you can't know what's a good investment until it's too late, many companies fail because of this, and there's huge survivorship bias in the ones that get lucky and don't initially fail). Slack spent tons of money in terms of product and engineering hours finding out what works and what doesn't. It's easy to copy/paste the thing after all that effort. Copy/paste doesn't get you to the next Slack though--it can get you to Microsoft's Slack-killing Teams strategy, but we obviously don't want more of that. And, obviously I agree with you about all the infra/maintenance costs, costs in stewarding API usage and extensions, etc. LLMs won't do any of that for you.

Re: The economics of software teams: Why most engineering orgs are flying blind

#76

> A messy codebase is still cheaper to send ten agents through than to staff a team around. And even if the agents need ten days to reason through an unfamiliar system, that is still faster and cheaper than most development teams operating today. I’ve been on 2 failed projects that have been entirely AI generated and it’s not that agents slow down and you can just send more agents to work on projects for longer, it’s…

Very much like humans when they drown in technical debt. I think the idea that a messy codebase can be magically fixed is laughable. What I might believe though is that agents might make rewrites a lot more easy. “Now we know what we were trying to build - let’s do it properly this time!”

> “Now we know what we were trying to build - let’s do it properly this time!”

I wonder if AI will avoid the inevitable pitfalls their human predecessors make in thinking "if I could just rewrite from scratch I'd make a much better version" (only to make a new set of poorly understood trade offs until the real world highlights them aggressively)

Re: The economics of software teams: Why most engineering orgs are flying blind

#77

> A messy codebase is still cheaper to send ten agents through than to staff a team around. And even if the agents need ten days to reason through an unfamiliar system, that is still faster and cheaper than most development teams operating today. I’ve been on 2 failed projects that have been entirely AI generated and it’s not that agents slow down and you can just send more agents to work on projects for longer, it’s…

>I’ve been on 2 failed projects that have been entirely AI generated and it’s not that agents slow down and you can just send more agents to work on projects for longer, it’s that they becoming completely unable to make any progress whatsoever, and whatever progress they do make is wrong.

This rhymes a lot with the Mythical Man Month. There's some corollary Mythical Machine Month thing going on with agent developed code at the moment.

Re: The economics of software teams: Why most engineering orgs are flying blind

#78
post #72

I thought it was a good article, till I saw the Slack example. The copy doesn’t even remotely grasp the scale of what the actual Slack sofware does in terms of scale, relaiability, observability, monitorability, maintability and pretty sure also functionality. Author only writes about the non-dev work as difference, which seems like he doesn’t know what he’s talking about in all, and what running an application at th…

Yeah, I can build a Slack "clone" in a couple of weeks with my own two hands, no AI required. But it's not going to actually be competitive with Slack.

Just to pick an incredibly, unbelievably basic enterprise feature, my two-week Slack clone is not going to properly support legal holds. This requires having a hard override for all deletion and expiration options anywhere in the product, that must work reliably, in order to avoid accidental destruction of evidence during litigation, which comes with potentially catastrophic penalties. If you don't get this right, you don't sell to large corporations.

And there are hundred other features like this. Engineering wants an easy-to-use API for Slack bots. Users want reaction GIFs. You need mobile apps. You need Single Sign-On. And so on. These are all table stakes.

It was a cliche for many years that Microsoft Word had "too many features." So people would start companies to sell "lightweight word processors" that only implemented "the most used 20% of features." And most of these companies sank without a trace (with a couple of admirable exceptions that hyperfocused on specific niches). Google finally made progress against the monopoly, but to it, they actually invested in a huge number of features.

Believe me, I wish that "simple, clean" reimplementations were actually directly competitive with major products. That version of our industry would be more fun. But anyone who thinks that an LLM can quickly reimplement Slack is an utter fool who has never seriously tried to sell software to actual customers.

Re: The economics of software teams: Why most engineering orgs are flying blind

#79
I expect engineering departments to be flattened and reduced in people. Corporate silos of responsibility around apps will probably disappear as a senior developer with tools can be pretty effective across platforms and technologies because the value of architectural and design thinking becomes more valuable

Re: The economics of software teams: Why most engineering orgs are flying blind

#80

When I see someone just throwing a lot of numbers and graphs at me, I see that there are in to win an argument, and not propose an idea. Of late, I've come across a lot of ideas from Rory Sutherland and my conclusion from listening to his ideas is that there are some people, who're obsessed with numbers, because to them it's a way to find certainty and win arguments. He calls them "Finance People" (him being a Market…

None of his math really checks out. Building a piece of software is or at least was orders of magnitudes more expensive than maintaining it. But how much money it can make is potentially unbounded (until it gets replaced). So investing e.g. 10 million this year to build a product that produces maybe 2 million ARR will have armortized after 5 years if you can reduce engineering spend to zero. You can also use the same…

> Building a piece of software is or at least was orders of magnitudes more expensive than maintaining it

This feels ludicrously backwards to me, and also contrary to what I've always seen as established wisdom - that most programming is maintenance. (Type `most programming is maintenance` into Google to find page after page of people advancing this thesis.) I suspect we have different ideas of what constitutes "maintenance".

Post reply on HN