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Internet outage in Iran reaches 1,008 hours

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Re: Internet outage in Iran reaches 1,008 hours

#71
post #68
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are these Iranian friends and their children the ones at risk the next time the US or Israel "accidentally" double taps civilian infrastructure? The regime will kill you/your loved ones and brand them as criminals if you protest against them or break an unreasonable law, the US and Israel will kill you and brand you as terrorists because you happened to be Iranian and in the wrong place.

If you look at the chances, there's a far greater chance of dying in the hands of SUV mounted machine guns firing at crowds than precision bombs that mostly hit regime forces

Source for the latter occurrence?

Re: Internet outage in Iran reaches 1,008 hours

#72
post #48
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good? The US and Israel both have nukes. Iran probably should have them too, it needs the tools to defend itself and maintain its sovereignty despite the actions of these lunatics. It is clear that rains of conventional ballistic missiles and the threat of taking out the global economy isn't enough to make Israel consider negotiations. If we wanted to worry about nuclear proliferation, negotiation was the path to tak…

I don't blame you, and you're entitled to your view. However, it's easy to sit in a comfort zone and support a totalitarian regime you never experienced living under. Have a read: https://www.iranintl.com/en/202603102323 https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602031576

That sounds brutal, and I’m sure there were tons of abuses by security forces during the protests, but I am a bit skeptical of Iran International as a source:

https://web.archive.org/web/20260116190959/https://www.thegu...

Re: Internet outage in Iran reaches 1,008 hours

#73
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is all likely true. Although I feel people undersell how they work together. Iranians broadly hate their government, yeah. But the thing that gets them rioting is economic failure. Which the strikes have exacerbated. Social media is swarmed by people saying it’ll be like Iraq and Iranians will hate the US for its actions. I’m not convinced. My small anecdata of Iranian friends with contacts in Iran agrees with m…

Why wont a general strike work? Not enough support? People have never had freedom, so dont understand they have 100% ability to bring down govt if they wanted?

It would work at sufficient scale and sacrifice

Re: Internet outage in Iran reaches 1,008 hours

#74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unpopularity won't overthrow a government that is willing to drown every protest in blood.

You think the French monarchy was overthrown because they didn't try hard enough? It's blood against blood, but it's quite rare for people to rise up while there's an external enemy. Russia 1917 is the only example I can think of?

And to steel man your position, when the Russian revolution happened the bolsheviks promised peace, an end to the war.

Re: Internet outage in Iran reaches 1,008 hours

#75
post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you look at the chances, there's a far greater chance of dying in the hands of SUV mounted machine guns firing at crowds than precision bombs that mostly hit regime forces

Source for the latter occurrence?

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0mgndkklvmo

Re: Internet outage in Iran reaches 1,008 hours

#76
post #18

Apparently there have been IRGC and basij curfew patrols shooting at buildings / windows of people who sing or shout anti regime songs and slogans. Apparently they are also (at least in some cases) dressing as women to avoid airstrikes. There has been very little photage and info coming out of Iran though. I still believe the Iranian government is more afraid of it's people than of the US and Israel - the US and Isra…

This is all likely true. Although I feel people undersell how they work together. Iranians broadly hate their government, yeah. But the thing that gets them rioting is economic failure. Which the strikes have exacerbated. Social media is swarmed by people saying it’ll be like Iraq and Iranians will hate the US for its actions. I’m not convinced. My small anecdata of Iranian friends with contacts in Iran agrees with m…

> But the thing that gets them rioting is economic failure. Which the strikes have exacerbated.

Past riots were related to women rights or election fraud. The last one were related to the economic situation, but there is a large young population in Iran which aren't religious anymore, and living in an oppressive theocracy

Re: Internet outage in Iran reaches 1,008 hours

#77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unpopularity won't overthrow a government that is willing to drown every protest in blood.

You think the French monarchy was overthrown because they didn't try hard enough? It's blood against blood, but it's quite rare for people to rise up while there's an external enemy. Russia 1917 is the only example I can think of?

"You think the French monarchy was overthrown because they didn't try hard enough?"

Yes, actually I do. Are you aware how long the process of transformation was and how little actual violence did the royal troops mete out? Most of the blood during the French Revolution was shed among the revolutionaries themselves, later. Not by the old regime which barely resisted what was happening, being confused more than anything else.

The French monarchy was remarkably limp-wristed in its reaction to the post-1789 developments, probably because, in the beginning, not even the revolutionaries themselves expected to actually dismantle the monarchy. There was no civil war similar to Cromwell's England, nor massacres in the streets similar to modern Iran. In the largest event of that early period which could be called "a battle" (Storming of the Bastille), a grand total of 114 royalist soldiers made their last stand. Which is tiny for a country the size of France.

It took about a year for the situation to progress from the first session of the Estates General to the royal family attempted flight from Versailles, and 2,5 more years for the King to be executed. A classical case of the frog being boiled very slowly. The royal regime was indecisive and offered close to zero violent resistence.

(If you want to learn about an actual abortive French revolution which was suppressed with actual brutal violence by the royalists, look up Fronda of 1648-1653.)

In contrast, current rulers of Iran have 0 doubts about what is going to happen to them - and within minutes - if they get caught by the street crowd that hates them.

Re: Internet outage in Iran reaches 1,008 hours

#78
post #41

Every Iranian I know support the current US/Israeli war against the Islamic Republic. They say things like "no matter what it takes, no matter how many of us die, we must be free again, this time we will win against the terrorist regime" (paraphrased).

Did you see on the news how many people were mourning for Khomeini on the streets ?

Clearly your sample of Iranians is very biased.

I am not pro theocratic regimes, but not only does the US/Israel _not_ have the right to wage this war, but this war will only make the regime stronger.

Nothing more unifying than getting bombed, especially in martyrdom cultures.

Re: Internet outage in Iran reaches 1,008 hours

#79
post #41

Every Iranian I know support the current US/Israeli war against the Islamic Republic. They say things like "no matter what it takes, no matter how many of us die, we must be free again, this time we will win against the terrorist regime" (paraphrased).

It's easy to say that when you're a shah supporter living in the west.
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