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U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020

bloomberg.com

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Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020

#71

Post by sigkill »

deelowe wrote: post #14
kyledrake wrote: post #7

I think stopping the destruction of our planet's climate is more important than becoming oil independent and having cheap petroleum, personally. This is troubling news to me, I was hoping that peak oil would start people down the track of dealing with these problems.

People are on track to deal with these problems (or at least are attempting to be). There are hybrid cars all over the place now, Tesla Motors is doing well as a company and there is a ton of research going into clean energy. These are just extremely difficult problems to deal with. In the meantime, the country can't just let society fail as a whole. The whole world would descend into chaos and war. The US has to do…

When people talk of peak oil, all I see is solutions to oil-as-fuel problems. What about the other industries where you still use oil? Petroleum products are practically everywhere.

Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020

#72

Post by notatoad »

refurb wrote: post #58
Tyrant505 wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I always come back to this point as well. Buy till there is no more, use nothing till everyone has ran out.

But how does this help us? The oil market is international. If we wait until everyone else runs out of oil, then start drilling ourselves, we're still paying ultra-high prices for it. Of course, unless you are suggesting we don't sell any of our own oil at that point. Sounds good in theory, until you realize that keeping oil product for domestic use (at say $100/bbl) leaves a lot of money on the table when you can se…

The oil market is international, but not immune from politics. The Saudis are currently willing to sell their oil to the US for a fair price. That isn't a situation that is guaranteed to continue, if the US digs up all their oil now they lose the future negotiating position of "screw you guys, we'll just dig up our own oil".

Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020

#73

Post by ars »

checker wrote: post #41
Arjuna wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"So the us is going to start pulling it's oil out of the ground a lot faster. And then it's going to run out of oil." This does not appear to be an entirely accurate conclusion, according to the article. For example, the article explains that: "The desert kingdom is due to become the biggest producer again by 2030, pumping 11.4 million barrels a day versus 10.2 million in the U.S." That said, if the numbers and proje…

I believe your theory is essentially peak oil: When the price of extraction exceeds demand. Oil will still be there, but it would be economically unfeasible to tap, especially with the rise of alternative fuels.

No, that's not peak oil. Peak oil is the point were we have extracted the maximum amount of oil in a given year, after that productions starts reducing - but production could continue for centuries after that.

Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020

#75

Post by DougWebb »

Tyrant505 wrote: post #28
notatoad wrote: post #23

Thee article seems to skip pretty quickly over what, to me, is the important point: >Will transform the U.S. into the largest producer for about five years starting in 2020 So the us is going to start pulling it's oil out of the ground a lot faster. And then it's going to run out of oil. I think it might be better to just keep buying from the Saudis and keep a little bit in the ground.

I always come back to this point as well. Buy till there is no more, use nothing till everyone has ran out.

Another argument against this approach is that North American oil sources aren't as easily extracted as Middle Eastern sources. Part of the transition to North American sources includes developing better extraction technology as these sources start to be exploited. That requires real experience and years of R&D. If we just ignored our sources until we became 100% dependent on them, we're not going to be able to extract them quickly enough or efficiently enough. We've got to build up the technology and infrastructure before we become dependent.

Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020

#76

Post by deelowe »

kamjam wrote: post #70
deelowe wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Consumers are not the issue here really. It's cargo that's the concern. That's where most of the pollution is (from oil anyways) and that's where the price of oil affects the economy. I don't think people realize just how much the US is dependent on oil for it's goods. Most consumer products are made overseas, shipped into a port, offloaded onto a train, and then delivered to retail locations via trucks. On top of th…

Yes, I know consumers are not the issue. Cargo is, and that's why I brought it up, your original argument only mentions cars specifically and everyone driving hybrid is going to make little impact and as things currently stand everyone driving fully electric won't do squat. I think we are beating the same drum though. The map of country size comparison... should the land mass off a country determine your "allowed usa…

Why do you keep attacking me? I've been civil to you.

The reason I compare land mass is because the infrastructure is different. The US has to move cargo over large distances and buys much of it's products from producers over seas. It's completely dependent on oil from that perspective. The size of the country also hurts development of things like high speed rail and public transportation due to issues with urban sprawl unlike it's european and asian counterparts where these projects have done well. There's a land mass nearly the size of Russia with very sparsely populated areas strewn about and tons of existing infrastructure in the way. Then there are also cities that are in some cases the size of small European countries with a population that's less dense. The logistics of these make solving the cargo and transportation issues very difficult. In the mean time, the US can't sit idle and just let things collapse unless it wants risk civil unrest. Combine all this with military and economic threats from China, Russia, and the middle east and it's no surprise to me that the government wants to ensure the US can continue to play a major role in oil production. Keep in mind that oil is a commodity, so it's not about the money. This is purely about the future of the country.

Regarding my comment about cars, see the reply above to someone who made a similar point. There's evidence that progress is being made. It's just developing in niche markets where innovation typically happens (consumer cars, race cars, small power companies, etc..). I wasn't trying to say that CSX would start moving cargo via tesla cars. Please tell me you didn't really believe that.

I'm not convinced the issue is one of a lack of demand. It's just a really difficult problem to solve and when the well being of the country is at state, the politicians aren't going to willing throw it's economy into a depression or risk one of it's enemies forcing it's hand. Hope is not a strategy.

Finally, no sane country is going to willing limit it's oil usage. That's especially true for a country that's been in a recession for over 4 years and every good and service is impacted by the cost of oil.

Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020

#77

Post by mediaman »

epscylonb wrote: post #66
roc wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's pretty well accepted that oil will never physically run out. Long before even extraction/refining costs make remaining oil infeasibly expensive, supply/demand will send the price spiking to uneconomical levels as soon as oil production so much as slows down relative to growth in world-wide demand. That's what the US increase in extraction is primarily about: trying to avoid price shocks between now and when the…

The problem with oil, is that it is an inelastic commodity. During the oil shocks of the 70's prices had to rise by 400% before demand started to fall. Also the notion of a country being energy independent when relying upon oil is a silly one. In the global economy, we want everyone to have relatively cheap energy, if not the global standard of living will fall.

It's inelastic in the short term, because there are limits to what people can do to change: they aren't necessarily able to immediately dump their existing car and trade up; they still have to commute to work; cargo still has to be transported to its destination; factories will not replace their inefficient equipment overnight. Costs go up but behavior doesn't change, so an increase in energy costs just replaces spending on other goods, hurting the rest of the economy.

Over the longer run, though, if prices have risen significantly and permanently, and that coincides with a point where a consumer decides they need to replace their car, then oil consumption does start becoming more elastic: the consumer is more likely to choose the more fuel efficient vehicle. We've seen some of this in the rise in sales of small vehicles versus trucks and SUVs lately.

This is where building a long-term steady upward price trend is important, versus short-term price shocks, since the former allows the economy to react appropriately by increasing efficiency.

Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020

#78

Post by InclinedPlane »

MrBlue wrote: post #62
InclinedPlane wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

American troops left Iraq nearly a year ago.

Wrong. There are currently 15k to 16k Americans working in Iraq, under the auspices of the State Department. I guarantee they aren't all working desk jobs and God knows how many mercenaries...I mean contractors are still running around. Just because they aren't labelled "combat troops" doesn't mean they don't carry guns and kill people.

Those are not troops. Are Americans working or visiting, say, New Zealand to be considered an occupying force?

Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020

#79

Post by [deleted] »

kamjam wrote: post #70
deelowe wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Consumers are not the issue here really. It's cargo that's the concern. That's where most of the pollution is (from oil anyways) and that's where the price of oil affects the economy. I don't think people realize just how much the US is dependent on oil for it's goods. Most consumer products are made overseas, shipped into a port, offloaded onto a train, and then delivered to retail locations via trucks. On top of th…

Yes, I know consumers are not the issue. Cargo is, and that's why I brought it up, your original argument only mentions cars specifically and everyone driving hybrid is going to make little impact and as things currently stand everyone driving fully electric won't do squat. I think we are beating the same drum though. The map of country size comparison... should the land mass off a country determine your "allowed usa…

[deleted]

Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020

#80

Post by [deleted] »

deelowe wrote: post #76
kamjam wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, I know consumers are not the issue. Cargo is, and that's why I brought it up, your original argument only mentions cars specifically and everyone driving hybrid is going to make little impact and as things currently stand everyone driving fully electric won't do squat. I think we are beating the same drum though. The map of country size comparison... should the land mass off a country determine your "allowed usa…

Why do you keep attacking me? I've been civil to you. The reason I compare land mass is because the infrastructure is different. The US has to move cargo over large distances and buys much of it's products from producers over seas. It's completely dependent on oil from that perspective. The size of the country also hurts development of things like high speed rail and public transportation due to issues with urban spr…

[deleted]
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