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Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war

theguardian.com

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Re: Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war

#71

Post by zarzavat »

_alternator_ wrote: post #50
zarzavat wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. These resolvers only deal with rules disputes, i.e. disputes over the fine print. This is only applicable if you are gambling on polymarket. The probabilities while the market is open are set by market forces. Of course you have to read the fine print very carefully to understand what a particular market is about. The more deceptive thing is the potential disparity between the title and the rules. Most market par…

I think GP is saying that, in principle, the UMA token holders can resolve a dispute any way they see fit, even if in practice it's resolved according to the rules. At the end of the day there is someone who has to arbitrate 'truth' for the purposes of payout.

I understand that. What I'm saying is that resolution is only relevant to bettors. It doesn't affect anyone using Polymarket as a passive information source, because nobody is updating their world view based on the resolution of a market, they are updating their world view based on the price action. The price action follows the expected resolution, not the actual resolution.

Even if someone were to game resolution to make a market resolve the wrong way, it wouldn't affect how the market priced the probabilities in the time before the resolution.

Re: Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war

#72

Post by pocksuppet »

PowerElectronix wrote: post #28
ModernMech wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True, but capitalism eventually makes gambling the whole economy.

I don't think it does. Capitalism only allows one to save one's fruit of their labor to use down the line. You exchange it for money, then use that money to buy other stuff. People using it to gamble has more to do with gambling people than with capitalism people. You can have gambling in communism or socialism, only stakes there are limited because the fruit of the labor of people doesn't belong to them like in capi…

I think you're mixing up capitalism with commerce. Commerce is where people buy and sell stuff. This is good. Capitalism is where capital is hoarded by an increasing smaller group of people. This is bad.

Re: Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war

#73

Post by elicash »

rayiner wrote: post #68
elicash wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your comment is a great addition to the conversation. I do just want to add the scale point, though. That source is less than a million was bet, and now there are hundreds of millions bet on the ceasefire, and millions more on other Iran bets, and then even more bet on Russia/Ukraine. So I think it's a bit overstated to frame it as nothing is new. But your historical context is helpful.

> That source is less than a million was bet, and now there are hundreds of millions bet on the ceasefire, and millions more on other Iran bets, and then even more bet on Russia/Ukraine. I'd imagine those numbers are typical for any transaction facilitated by the Internet comparing 2003 to 2026.

It seems to me there's an explosion in just the last few years that's noteworthy -- that gambling on war did not simply grow hand-in-hand with all web purchases. Am happy to be wrong, but that's my experience seeing this play out.

Re: Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war

#74

Post by yunohn »

falcor84 wrote: post #62
nullstyle wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You think normal folks should have access to precision guided munitions and chemical weapons?

Look, I don't think people should have access to these at all, but at the same time, I think that the average Joe would be a better custodian of these than Trump and Netanyahu. My hope is that equal access might make us stop treating these things as if they are ok.

This has clearly worked out well with giving guns to the entire US population…

Re: Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war

#75

Post by eru »

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #69
Chrisszz wrote: post #4

This is becoming the kind of "VC platform for online war investments". You: 1. Plan 2. Bet 3. Invest money upfront 4. Execute 5. Redeem your profits

Giving people an easy way to profit (i.e. incentive) to use either direct political power or indirect power via bribes is going to have massive consequences on corruption. We've made profiting off of corruption substantially easier. Anyone who thinks that isn't going to increase corruption is a moron. Anyone who thinks having more corruption is a good thing is also a moron.

Traditional financial markets already give people really big incentives to cause all kinds of mischief. Eg buy a few puts, then publish some made up bad news about the company and profit.

Somehow that doesn't seem to be too much of a problem in practice.

Re: Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war

#76

Post by eru »

hank2000 wrote: post #60

Imagine a bunch of people are tortured, removed from their homes, are killed… and you get paid? Are you cheering for it because you’re getting paid? I can’t imagine wanting to be cheering on death and destruction.

You better never buy any life insurance.

Re: Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war

#77

Post by eru »

testing22321 wrote: post #40
airstrike wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Capitalism is just a projection of our natural competition for scarce resources onto an economic system.

Resources would not be scarce if some people were not hoarding.

Are you going to work for free?

Re: Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war

#78

Post by eru »

ModernMech wrote: post #49
azan_ wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How?

Once the capitalists get enough control of the government they rig everything for themselves. In a capitalist system money is paramount and they have the most of it, so their opinion is regarded higher than everyone else's. Once capitalists rig the system for themselves, the only way to get ahead is just pure luck or connections. Sine not everyone can be connected, luck is all that's left for most people, so it becom…

When Bill Gates was the richest guy in the world, he still had to battle the authorities for ten years to import his sports car from Europe.

I'd hardly call that controlling the government.

Re: Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war

#79

Post by eru »

PowerElectronix wrote: post #28
ModernMech wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True, but capitalism eventually makes gambling the whole economy.

I don't think it does. Capitalism only allows one to save one's fruit of their labor to use down the line. You exchange it for money, then use that money to buy other stuff. People using it to gamble has more to do with gambling people than with capitalism people. You can have gambling in communism or socialism, only stakes there are limited because the fruit of the labor of people doesn't belong to them like in capi…

(Many) people love gambling. Capitalism is great at giving people what they want.

Re: Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war

#80

Post by jayd16 »

Throaway199999 wrote: post #14
Chrisszz wrote: post #4

This is becoming the kind of "VC platform for online war investments". You: 1. Plan 2. Bet 3. Invest money upfront 4. Execute 5. Redeem your profits

honestly the profits aren't big enough when you can just go into business if you have that kind of influence

Corruption is surprisingly cheap. That doesn't mean we should ignore or allow it.
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