Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

White House staff told not to place bets on prediction markets

bbc.co.uk

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

71–80 of 89 posts

Re: White House staff told not to place bets on prediction markets

#71

Post by specproc »

OutOfHere wrote: post #57
seanalltogether wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I remember reading something awhile ago in regards to why people were investing in NFTs when it seemed so clear they were a scam. The gist of it was that it's easy to get into cryptocurrency, but it's hard to get out. KYC, taxes, age requirements, currency fees, etc are enough of a barrier that many people would rather just keep those assets in virtual space. Polymarket is the answer to the question "Well what else a…

That's complete nonsense for the simple reason that it is possible to pay just fine with crypto on various sites, also to buy major gift cards. No KYC applies to these actions. We are not living in 2016.

I don't know how much of an issue KYC is to your average crypto-dabbler.

I found a few K's worth of BTC down the back of the sofa recently, and was astounded by how easy it was to use it like Visa after converting to stablecoin.

I don't think prediction markets are a function of stranded crypto, because for most holders, crypto has never been more fungible.

Re: White House staff told not to place bets on prediction markets

#72

Post by bregma »

keviniam wrote: post #18

I don't understand why anybody without access to serious inside information is currently betting on prediction markets. It's clear that insiders are absolutely going to eat your lunch. So who are the suckers who are losing all this money? I guess this isn't true for all things you might bet on, but it seems to be true for a lot of them.

> So who are the suckers who are losing all this money?

Gambling is just a tax on the stupid. Is it surprising it's rampant in certain institutions?

Re: White House staff told not to place bets on prediction markets

#73

Post by bregma »

Tangurena2 wrote: post #9
mechoblast wrote: post #3

Surely half millions on prediction markets is pennies compared to what is getting made on oil futures/stocks.

It is easier for the SEC to investigate futures, stocks & options. Some of the prediction/gambling markets use crypto and do not participate in "Know Your Customer" regulations.

    Step 1: Gut the SEC
    Step 2: Buy $100,000,000 in oil futures 15 minutes before bombing starts
    Step 3: ???
    Step 4: PROFIT!!!

Re: White House staff told not to place bets on prediction markets

#74

Post by bregma »

RankingMember wrote: post #65
josefritzishere wrote: post #38

It is trully pathetic that this needs to be said.

If there's one positive that can be made of this admin, it's the realization that all the things that we thought went without saying ("don't profit from the office", "don't insider trade", "don't casually leak confidential information to our enemies") need much stronger enforcement mechanisms.

They didn't go without saying: there are laws on the books explicitly making them illegal. But a law that is not enforced is not justice, and a law that is unevenly enforced is an injustice.

Re: White House staff told not to place bets on prediction markets

#75

Post by hydrogen7800 »

RankingMember wrote: post #65
josefritzishere wrote: post #38

It is trully pathetic that this needs to be said.

If there's one positive that can be made of this admin, it's the realization that all the things that we thought went without saying ("don't profit from the office", "don't insider trade", "don't casually leak confidential information to our enemies") need much stronger enforcement mechanisms.

Too much of our government requires/required its trustees to act in good faith. Clearly that was too vulnerable. And I realize it sounds naive to think that past trustees were acting in good faith, but there are relative degrees of that.

Re: White House staff told not to place bets on prediction markets

#77

Post by mchusma »

keviniam wrote: post #18

I don't understand why anybody without access to serious inside information is currently betting on prediction markets. It's clear that insiders are absolutely going to eat your lunch. So who are the suckers who are losing all this money? I guess this isn't true for all things you might bet on, but it seems to be true for a lot of them.

I did a bit for fun and felt there were areas where I did do well. However, the problems with these markets is the contracts are often such where you can win or lose on obscure technicalities. I bet on 5 things, and 4 were resolved in ways I felt were non obvious.

For example, will the Ayatollah be out by April. Lost because death apparently did not count. Bet Anthropic would advertise at the superbowl. Lost because while they did so they advertised Claude not for the company.

Once it became clear that it was an exercise in legalese, I was done.

Re: White House staff told not to place bets on prediction markets

#78

Post by OutOfHere »

maerF0x0 wrote: post #70
OutOfHere wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For those who live in the red-pilled real world, just don't trade on something where controlling insiders (also with a potential conflict-of-interest) can beat you at the game. This is different from bets with non-controlling insiders with no conflict-of-interest.

Isn't that nearly everything public?

The key is avoiding the bets with controlling insiders, i.e. those that could have a potential conflict of interest. Even something as banal as weather data has some insider knowledge, but an insider has no practical control over it, i.e. the insider is non-controlling, with no conflict-of-interest.

Re: White House staff told not to place bets on prediction markets

#79

Post by Maticslot »

OutOfHere wrote: post #57
seanalltogether wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I remember reading something awhile ago in regards to why people were investing in NFTs when it seemed so clear they were a scam. The gist of it was that it's easy to get into cryptocurrency, but it's hard to get out. KYC, taxes, age requirements, currency fees, etc are enough of a barrier that many people would rather just keep those assets in virtual space. Polymarket is the answer to the question "Well what else a…

That's complete nonsense for the simple reason that it is possible to pay just fine with crypto on various sites, also to buy major gift cards. No KYC applies to these actions. We are not living in 2016.

[dead]

Re: White House staff told not to place bets on prediction markets

#80

Post by sneed-oil »

keviniam wrote: post #18

I don't understand why anybody without access to serious inside information is currently betting on prediction markets. It's clear that insiders are absolutely going to eat your lunch. So who are the suckers who are losing all this money? I guess this isn't true for all things you might bet on, but it seems to be true for a lot of them.

I guess I'm one of those suckers, except that so far I've made a 3x return on the small sum I bet, I would say it's a hedge. I’ve been betting on the Iran war since mid February, the reasoning was that if the conflict happened, my payout would offset some of the jump in my cost of living. I could have used traditional financial instruments to buy options or oil futures or gold, but there's more friction there and I already had some crypto.
Post reply on HN