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Germany Power Prices Turn Deeply Negative on Renewables Surge

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Re: Germany Power Prices Turn Deeply Negative on Renewables Surge

#71

Post by flanked-evergl »

jfengel wrote: post #62
Hamuko wrote: post #5

Does someone want to elaborate why it's interesting/important that wholesale electricity prices were low one day during a long weekend?

It's an indicator of how far they've come in supplanting fossil fuels. Today it's one day; soon it will be two, then a week. They can start thinking about next steps.

No.

From JP Morgan's 16th Annual Energy Paper, March 2026

https://cdn.jpmorganfunds.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/...

> In 2024 we estimated that had Germany not decommissioned nuclear power after the Fukushima accident, it would have needed 50% less electricity generation from fossil fuels, 84% less generation from imported natural gas, 27% less fossil fuel capacity and 42% less natural gas capacity. Another road less traveled: Germany’s electricity prices in 2024 were almost 25% higher than they would have been had the country kept its nuclear power online . And as shown below, Germany might not have experienced such a sharp increase in its electricity imports which are 2x higher than a decade ago as a share of consumption.

> More nuclear shutdown repercussions: Germany’s industrial power prices were 3x higher than the US and China in 2024, and part of the reason why Germany has been experiencing the deindustrialization shown on the right.

Re: Germany Power Prices Turn Deeply Negative on Renewables Surge

#72

Post by flanked-evergl »

SideburnsOfDoom wrote: post #8
Hamuko wrote: post #5

Does someone want to elaborate why it's interesting/important that wholesale electricity prices were low one day during a long weekend?

Energy prices being low is interesting and important right now, since we are undergoing a petrochemical energy price increase shock.

Prices being negative for one day does not make energy prices low. The "green shift" in Germany has increased the use of fossil fuels and the price of energy.

From JP Morgan's 16th Annual Energy Paper, March 2026

https://cdn.jpmorganfunds.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/...

> In 2024 we estimated that had Germany not decommissioned nuclear power after the Fukushima accident, it would have needed 50% less electricity generation from fossil fuels, 84% less generation from imported natural gas, 27% less fossil fuel capacity and 42% less natural gas capacity. Another road less traveled: Germany’s electricity prices in 2024 were almost 25% higher than they would have been had the country kept its nuclear power online . And as shown below, Germany might not have experienced such a sharp increase in its electricity imports which are 2x higher than a decade ago as a share of consumption.

> More nuclear shutdown repercussions: Germany’s industrial power prices were 3x higher than the US and China in 2024, and part of the reason why Germany has been experiencing the deindustrialization shown on the right.

Re: Germany Power Prices Turn Deeply Negative on Renewables Surge

#74

Post by leonidasrup »

Ekaros wrote: post #49
paule89 wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well dynamic pricing only ever works until you have a power outage in the winter and suddenly you pay a years worth of money for the 1 hour you could use your fridge, during a snowstorm.

That is the trade off for renewables. Power is very expensive when needed and very cheap when not.

Electric power is very expensive when demand is greater than supply, very cheap when supply is greater than demand.

Re: Germany Power Prices Turn Deeply Negative on Renewables Surge

#75

Post by thyristan »

Dagonfly wrote: post #58

So many questionable comments in here. Negative prices have no effect on grid stability. It just means that the day-ahead market was cleared below 0, i.e. for every consumer (buyer) there is a producer (seller) selling at this price. The market is still balanced with consumption==production. Now, you can ask the question: Why are so many producers willing to sell below 0? That has to do with misplaced incentives. For…

> It just means that the day-ahead market was cleared below 0

No, it doesn't. The article is explicitly about intraday-prices. So day-ahead clearance made invalid assumptions about generations and consumption that were not met during the day. This kind of miscalculation does require additional (costly) redispatch measures to mitigate the overproduction, and it can affect grid stability.

Re: Germany Power Prices Turn Deeply Negative on Renewables Surge

#76

Post by ndsipa_pomu »

amai wrote: post #56

For absolutely no good reason bidirectional charging in Germany is still forbidden. Electric cars could be used to store and buffer the overproduction of electric energy. But no, the german burocrats forbid this solution. Ridiculous!

I thought that bidirectional charging increases the complexity of the equipment used for the electric grid and can introduce a fire risk in homes if the equipment or wiring is sub-standard or faulty. Basically, it's costly to implement.

Re: Germany Power Prices Turn Deeply Negative on Renewables Surge

#77

Post by leonidasrup »

api wrote: post #18
mcintyre1994 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the UK you can get energy plans with a price that updates every half hour, published a day ahead. From 12:30pm - 4pm today that price is negative. It was also negative for around 16 hours of Easter Sunday. https://www.octopriceuk.app/agile

Where’s profitable crypto mining when you need it? Back yard plasma furnace? Artificial diamond making? Aluminum smelting?

There are may different energy storage systems.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_storage

There have wildly different prices for unit of stored energy and wildly different storage times.

https://css.umich.edu/publications/factsheets/energy/us-grid...

It's not cost effective run aluminum smelting only during peak electricity production.

Re: Germany Power Prices Turn Deeply Negative on Renewables Surge

#78

Post by Dagonfly »

thyristan wrote: post #75
Dagonfly wrote: post #58

So many questionable comments in here. Negative prices have no effect on grid stability. It just means that the day-ahead market was cleared below 0, i.e. for every consumer (buyer) there is a producer (seller) selling at this price. The market is still balanced with consumption==production. Now, you can ask the question: Why are so many producers willing to sell below 0? That has to do with misplaced incentives. For…

> It just means that the day-ahead market was cleared below 0 No, it doesn't. The article is explicitly about intraday-prices. So day-ahead clearance made invalid assumptions about generations and consumption that were not met during the day. This kind of miscalculation does require additional (costly) redispatch measures to mitigate the overproduction, and it can affect grid stability.

You are right that intraday went even more negative than day-ahead. But I disagree about the rest of your comment. A spread between day-ahead and intraday does not imply additional redispatch. Only some of it might have been countertrading by the grid operators.

The redispatch was not extraordinary: https://energy-charts.info/charts/power_redispatch/chart.htm...

Re: Germany Power Prices Turn Deeply Negative on Renewables Surge

#79

Post by leonidasrup »

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #66
red75prime wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It will be more relevant in the future, but it's still worth thinking about. Right now intermittent energy sources cover around 15-18% of the total energy consumption in Germany[1]. And seasonal variability is covered by other methods (natural gas and others). [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Germany#/media/File:...

But since 2/3rd of the fossil energy is wasted, it's more like 40% of the useful energy. Some people don't know about the primary energy fallacy, others know about it and try to exploit it, so you should be suspicious of the opinions of anyone trying to use it suggest lack of progress and futility.

If you measure useful energy as electricity output of a fossil fuel plant then yes. But in many cases the waste heat is used in other applications for example district heating or low grade industrial heat.

If you use fossil fuel to directly drive an industrial process, for example melting of ores/metals/glass then the efficiency is much higher.

Re: Germany Power Prices Turn Deeply Negative on Renewables Surge

#80

Post by scary-size »

leonidasrup wrote: post #63
eigenspace wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Germany experiences negative electricity prices on a near daily basis now from spring through fall. This weekend, prices were more negative than usual, but still not that negative.

It really depends on the size and placement of the oversupply, this could cause localized grid overloading. "However, BDEW warned that around half of the new capacity came in the form of small-scale systems under 100 kilowatt each, which under current rules feed into the grid whatever they produce, without the option to curtail production when this is necessary to ensure grid stability." https://www.cleanenergywire.o…

IIIRC, new individual systems are already required to have the capability to wind down export based on external signals.
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