Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

theguardian.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

71–80 of 202 posts

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#71

Post by [deleted] »

fakedang wrote: post #47
ck2 wrote: post #40

There's no ceasefire, Iran has no idea what he is making up as always. He's delaying until the Marines get there in a few days. And until the markets close on Friday, notice how he said 5 days on Monday. He's also bombed them the past two times in the middle of negotiations, why stop now The man is a proven constant pathological liar since the day he came down the golden escalator 10 years ago, literally every time h…

Iran already knows his bluff. Abbas Aragchi even explicitly mentioned this in an interview, stating that negotiating with the US is a pointless exercise, but it tells the Iranians whether Dump is planning a major strike. So there's definitely going to be a major strike happening by Friday or Saturday. To end the war, Iran will demand a full withdrawal of US forces from all neighboring countries as well as a shut down…

[deleted]

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#72

Post by cosmojg »

Karrot_Kream wrote: post #41
tencentshill wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A market with regulations, vs. no regulations.

Right so how are you going to find it and who is going to prosecute the insider trading here? My point isn't that an unregulated prediction market (Polymarket non-US markets are non-CFTC certified) can obscure insider trading. My point is that Brent has enough liquidity that an insider can trade without moving markets. There's plenty of insiders that work on a contract basis and aren't required to disclose trades by…

Also, isn't insider trading the whole point of prediction markets? They were originally conceptualized as information aggregators.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#73

Post by lithocarpus »

xg15 wrote: post #54
mikkupikku wrote: post #17

If the administration decides to end this stupid war just so they can cash out some profitable bets... I don't even know what I would think. The whole thing is so stupid it makes my head hurt.

That would be darkly hilarious, but I think it could also be the opposite way around: That there is a ceasefire shaping up, and some of Trump's staffers couldn't hold it anymore and placed bets using their knowledge - therefore accidentally "leaking" the plans. At least I'm having my hopes up for this.

Or further, the bets themselves could be an attempt at market manipulation.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#74

Post by XorNot »

TacticalCoder wrote: post #63
tmnvix wrote: post #15

> “For the purposes of this market, an ‘official ceasefire agreement’ requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.” (by March 31) Seems a rather risky bet considering how deep Israel has ventured into its war in Lebanon. Very doubtful they will stop anytime soon. Given the leverage Israel ha…

[flagged]

And the Taliban were defeated in Afghanistan too...

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#75

Post by irishcoffee »

mikkupikku wrote: post #17

If the administration decides to end this stupid war just so they can cash out some profitable bets... I don't even know what I would think. The whole thing is so stupid it makes my head hurt.

The amount of money to be made on these markets is in the tens of millions at best. This administration doesn’t care about that. I understand why you feel that way, the numbers are just too inconsequential to even move the needle.

Bit players with knowledge that have been perennially underpaid by the us govt. however, mortgage-saving money. I don’t blame them. Do you?

“I’m aware of a big decision and I can make 23k off of it, probably.” Do it up, congress has been living off insider trading for a century, let the little guy get theirs.

Until gambling commercials are banned in the same way cigarette commercials were banned, we’re all just yelling at the wind.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#76

Post by Aurornis »

mikkupikku wrote: post #17

If the administration decides to end this stupid war just so they can cash out some profitable bets... I don't even know what I would think. The whole thing is so stupid it makes my head hurt.

The bet amounts are small relative to the political scandal that would follow top administration officials who have decision making power.

If there is insider trading it's most likely low-level staffers or friends of officials who speak too freely.

If a high ranking official wanted to make a lot of money on these moves in an untraceable way, there are numerous financial market opportunities. The amount they could make on betting markets is peanuts and too easily tracked.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#77

Post by vkou »

standardUser wrote: post #53
vkou wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The kicker is that this isn't even Trump's war That's quite possible. > and he likely lacks the capacity to end it if he wanted to. Nah, he could end it any time he wants. Iran will stop bombing its neighbors in a week or so, and things will more or less return to the pre-war status quo. He chooses to not end it, because the one thing that he cannot stand is losing face .

Iran will not stop harassing the region, and perhaps not even allow the strait to open, if Israel is still bombing them or fighting a proxy war in Lebanon. So Trump can pack up and head back to this side of the planet, having made our country a few trillion dollars poorer in the process, but the war doesn't ends until Iran and Israel decide it ends.

> Iran will not stop harassing the region, and perhaps not even allow the strait to open, if Israel is still bombing them or fighting a proxy war in Lebanon.

If Israel is still bombing them? Certainly.

This will put incredible international pressure on Israel to stop. It's one thing when the US wrecks the world's economy, and it's hard to push back on. It's an entirely different thing when a country of 10 million people is wrecking the world's economy. International opinion has been turning against it for years, already.

I do think it's very unlikely to continue the war if the bombing stopped, and only the proxy war continued.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#78

Post by koolala »

irishcoffee wrote: post #75
mikkupikku wrote: post #17

If the administration decides to end this stupid war just so they can cash out some profitable bets... I don't even know what I would think. The whole thing is so stupid it makes my head hurt.

The amount of money to be made on these markets is in the tens of millions at best. This administration doesn’t care about that. I understand why you feel that way, the numbers are just too inconsequential to even move the needle. Bit players with knowledge that have been perennially underpaid by the us govt. however, mortgage-saving money. I don’t blame them. Do you? “I’m aware of a big decision and I can make 23k o…

This is just one market. The other bets are all across the stock market.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#79

Post by XorNot »

standardUser wrote: post #53
vkou wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The kicker is that this isn't even Trump's war That's quite possible. > and he likely lacks the capacity to end it if he wanted to. Nah, he could end it any time he wants. Iran will stop bombing its neighbors in a week or so, and things will more or less return to the pre-war status quo. He chooses to not end it, because the one thing that he cannot stand is losing face .

Iran will not stop harassing the region, and perhaps not even allow the strait to open, if Israel is still bombing them or fighting a proxy war in Lebanon. So Trump can pack up and head back to this side of the planet, having made our country a few trillion dollars poorer in the process, but the war doesn't ends until Iran and Israel decide it ends.

People honestly forget that Iranians aren't stupid. Some of them are crazy, but not stupid. Iran has been doing things like saying you're safe in the Strait as long as you trade oil in Yuan, for example. They know exactly why they're doing that.

Now it's not very effective now, but if the US packs up and leaves they can keep doing it. "Trade in Yuan or we drone strike your ships" would lead to every company that operates there doing it provided it actually kept risk and insurance rates down.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#80

Post by fabian2k »

Aurornis wrote: post #76
mikkupikku wrote: post #17

If the administration decides to end this stupid war just so they can cash out some profitable bets... I don't even know what I would think. The whole thing is so stupid it makes my head hurt.

The bet amounts are small relative to the political scandal that would follow top administration officials who have decision making power. If there is insider trading it's most likely low-level staffers or friends of officials who speak too freely. If a high ranking official wanted to make a lot of money on these moves in an untraceable way, there are numerous financial market opportunities. The amount they could mak…

What scandal? They're openly corrupt and no consequences have followed so far.
Post reply on HN