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AI coding is gambling

notes.visaint.space

71–80 of 471 posts

Re: AI coding is gambling

#71
post #50

Everything is "fast, cheap, good--pick two." This is no different.

I like the analogy but which 2 is AI coding? Fast & Cheap (but not Good?) - I wouldn't really say that AI coding is "cheap" Cheap & Good (but not Fast) - Again, not really "cheap" Fast & Good (but not Cheap) - This seems like maybe where we're at? Is this a bad place?

The proper idiom is "You can only pick two". It doesn't say that everything is two of them, or even one.

Re: AI coding is gambling

#72

It is and will always be about: 1) properly defining the spec 2) ensuring the implementation satisfies said spec

Well it’s more how much we care about those.

Which with the advent of LLMs just lowered our standards so we can claim success.

Re: AI coding is gambling

#73
I mean, this completely falls apart when you're trying to do something "real". I am building a trading engine right now with Claude/Codex. I have not written a line of code myself. However I care deeply about making sure everything works well because it's my money on the line. I have to weight carefully the prospect of landing a change that I don't fully understand.

Sometimes I can get away with 3K LoC PRs, sometimes I take a really long time on a +80 -25 change. You have to be intellectually honest with yourself about where to spend your time.

Re: AI coding is gambling

#76
post #63

Fascinating how HN is torn about vibe coding still. Everybody pretty much agrees that it works for some use cases, yet there is a flamewar (I mean, cultured, HN-type one) every time. People seem to be more comfortable in a binary mindset.

It’s just how discussion on the internet works, for basically anything at all worth discussing. It’s exhausting, but I can hardly blame HN specifically.

Re: AI coding is gambling

#77
post #10

Assigning work to an intern is gambling: they're inherently non-deterministic and it's a roll of the dice whether the work they do will be good enough or you'll have to give them feedback in order to get to what you need.

That’s very true. But interns aren’t supposed to be doing useful work. The purpose of interns is training interns and identifying people who might become useful at a later date. I’ve never worked anywhere where the interns had net productivity on average.

Replace "intern" with "coworker" and my comment still holds.

Re: AI coding is gambling

#78

It is and will always be about: 1) properly defining the spec 2) ensuring the implementation satisfies said spec

That can't be the whole story, right? Because there are an arbitrarily large number of (e.g.) Rust programs that will implement any given spec given in terms of unit tests, types, and perhaps some performance benchmarks.

But even accounting for all these "hard" constraints and metrics, there are clearly reasons to prefer some possible programs over others even when they all satisfy the same constraints and perform equally on all relevant metrics.

We do treat programs as efficient causes[1] of side effects in computing systems: a file is written, a block of memory is updated, etc. and the program is the cause of this.

But we also treat them as statements of a theory of the problem being solved[2]. And this latter treatment is often more important socially and economically. It is irrational to be indifferent to the theory of the problem the program expresses.

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_causes#Efficient

[2]: https://pages.cs.wisc.edu/~remzi/Naur.pdf

Re: AI coding is gambling

#79
I have had very similar experiences. I am not a professional software developer, but have been a Linux sysadmin for over a decade, a web developer for much longer than that, and generally know enough to hack on other people’s projects to make them suit my own purposes.

When I have Claude create something from scratch, it all appears very competent, even impressive, and it usually will build/function successfully…on the surface. I have noticed on several occasions that Claude has effectively coded the aesthetics of what I want, but left the substance out. A feature will appear to have been implemented exactly as I asked, but when I dig into the details, it’s a lot of very brittle logic that will almost certainly become a problem in future.

This is why I refuse to release anything it makes for me. I know that it’s not good enough, that I won’t be able to properly maintain it, and that such a product would likely harm my reputation, sooner or later. What frightens me is there are a LOT of people who either don’t know enough to recognize this, or who simply don’t care and are looking for a quick buck. It’s already getting significantly more difficult to search for software projects without getting miles of slop. I don’t know how this will ultimately shake out, but if it’s this bad at the thing it’s supposedly good at, I can only imagine the kinds of military applications being leveraged right now…

Re: AI coding is gambling

#80
It’s like any powerful tool. If you use it right it’s amazing. If you get careless or don’t watch it closely you’ll get hurt really badly.

Overall I’m a fan, but yes there are things to watch for. It doesn’t replace skilled humans but it does help skilled humans work faster if used right.

The labor replacement story is bullshit mostly, but that doesn’t mean it’s all bad.

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