In general "stickyness" among developers isn't that high, the way it is for consumers. Or the insane stickyness in "big boy contracts" government, accenture, etc,.
So I feel like the company which does these huge contracts will at the end eat up the coding business for nothing. The only way to avoid that is for anthropic to build up a huge IP lead in the code agent space. That is too difficult in my opinion. Because its hard to get exclusive access to code itself, the data advantage is not going to be there. Compute advantage is also difficult. And it's very difficult to hold on to architectural IP advantages in the LLM space.
Even if you get yourself embedded deep into traditional coding workflows (integrations with VCS, CI, IDEs, code forges, etc), usually SW infrastructure tends to like things decoupled through interfaces. Example: the most popular way to using code agents is the separate TUI application claude code which `cat`s and `grep`s your code. MCP, etc,. This means substitute-ability which is bad news.
I was thinking of ways these companies can actually get the coding business. One idea I had was to make proprietary context management tools that collect information over time and keep them permanent. And proprietary ways to correctly access them when needed. Here lock-in is real - you do the usual sleazy company things, you make it difficult to migrate "org understanding" out of your data format (it might even be technically difficult in reality). And that way there is perpetual lock-in. It even compounds over time. "Switch to my competitor and start your understanding from scratch reducing productivity by 37%, OR agree to my increased prices!". But amazing context management for coding tools is yet to be developed. Right now it is mostly slicing and combining a few markdown files, and `grep`, which is not exactly IP.
"The moat is state"