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The changing goalposts of AGI and timelines

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71–80 of 411 posts

Re: The changing goalposts of AGI and timelines

#71
Words on a piece of paper mean absolutely nothing. What matters the most is the real intent of the leaders of the company (something that changes over time and that changes over time, that is, what matters to then and who they are). Sam Altman clearly isn't a man of deep principles regarding humanity and ethics. He seems to regard his legacy, OAI impact and money above everything else. Some of the rest of the leadership do seem to think differently, but I also believe they no longer have the social and political capital to stop Sam.

Re: The changing goalposts of AGI and timelines

#72

OpenAI: - we are building Open AI - only if you have more than $10B net worth - we are against using AI for military purposes - except when that case is allowed by government - we are on a mission to help humanity - again, we define humanity as set of people with more than $10B net worth - surrender? - sure, sure, we will, only to people with more than $10B net worth, they can do whatever they want to our models, we…

Sam Altman is just another Elon Musk. Saying whatever he thinks sounds good in the moment.

Re: The changing goalposts of AGI and timelines

#74

""" I resigned from OpenAI. I care deeply about the Robotics team and the work we built together. This wasn’t an easy call. AI has an important role in national security. But surveillance of Americans without judicial oversight and lethal autonomy without human authorization are lines that deserved more deliberation than they got. This was about principle, not people. I have deep respect for Sam and the team, and I’m…

Do Chinese do this in China? Walk away from companies that will be used for war? I doesn’t seem to be prevalent and instead they try to take every advantage they can to push their country, China, to become the most dominate in the world. They must be elated to watch the world’s premier tech companies protest the American government and refusal to work with them. If I wanted China to be weaker I’d hope that Chinese companies protested and refused to work with the Chinese government.

Re: The changing goalposts of AGI and timelines

#75
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I genuinely dont think it was profit first thenm i think it was all in good faith. Altman definitely got greedy and stabbed all that in the back

This is an extraordinary claim and it requires extraordinary evidence. There is nothing in Altman’s behavior current or past to suggest this was anything other then a money making grift. The easiest explanation for his betrayal is that he was simply lying.

I'm not fan of Altman but the financial angle doesn't make much sense when he doesn't have equity in OpenAI

There's some indirect exposure and potential of being granted significant equity, but his actions don't read as being for his own wealth

As an example, he walks away with nothing in the very plausible timeline where he was fired but not then reinstated

Re: The changing goalposts of AGI and timelines

#76
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think it's about lethal autonomy specifically as much as it's just about government autonomy period. They don’t think private companies should have any veto power over how the government uses some technology they're provided. On its face that’s not a crazy stance: Governments are meant to represent the public, while private companies obviously aren't. I think it’s somewhat understandable why the government mi…

Agree, and I think the labeling of them (Anthropic) a supply chain risk was handled poorly and will likely be reverted over time. That being said, I would be nervous if I was in the Pentagon and depended on Anthropic tooling for something, even if that something was unrelated to kinetic operations. How do they audit that Anthropic can't alter model outputs for contexts they (the ethics board or whatever it's called,…

> the government will come knocking anyway.

Dario has even said something along these lines at one point: As the technology matures, it’s very possible the government either nationalizes or semi-nationalizes companies like Anthropic.

That doesn’t seem out of the realm of possibility if they can’t land on a relationship similar to existing defense contractors like Raytheon, where these kinds of discussions obviously don't seem to happen.

Re: The changing goalposts of AGI and timelines

#77
post #74

""" I resigned from OpenAI. I care deeply about the Robotics team and the work we built together. This wasn’t an easy call. AI has an important role in national security. But surveillance of Americans without judicial oversight and lethal autonomy without human authorization are lines that deserved more deliberation than they got. This was about principle, not people. I have deep respect for Sam and the team, and I’m…

Do Chinese do this in China? Walk away from companies that will be used for war? I doesn’t seem to be prevalent and instead they try to take every advantage they can to push their country, China, to become the most dominate in the world. They must be elated to watch the world’s premier tech companies protest the American government and refusal to work with them. If I wanted China to be weaker I’d hope that Chinese co…

You have used chatgpt presumably. Based on your interactions with it, do you seriously think it should be allowed to shoot a gun without any human oversight?

Re: The changing goalposts of AGI and timelines

#78

OpenAI: - we are building Open AI - only if you have more than $10B net worth - we are against using AI for military purposes - except when that case is allowed by government - we are on a mission to help humanity - again, we define humanity as set of people with more than $10B net worth - surrender? - sure, sure, we will, only to people with more than $10B net worth, they can do whatever they want to our models, we…

You've attached to the $10b number - is that illustrative or is there something specific you're referring to?

Re: The changing goalposts of AGI and timelines

#79
post #74

""" I resigned from OpenAI. I care deeply about the Robotics team and the work we built together. This wasn’t an easy call. AI has an important role in national security. But surveillance of Americans without judicial oversight and lethal autonomy without human authorization are lines that deserved more deliberation than they got. This was about principle, not people. I have deep respect for Sam and the team, and I’m…

Do Chinese do this in China? Walk away from companies that will be used for war? I doesn’t seem to be prevalent and instead they try to take every advantage they can to push their country, China, to become the most dominate in the world. They must be elated to watch the world’s premier tech companies protest the American government and refusal to work with them. If I wanted China to be weaker I’d hope that Chinese co…

Yes we should dispense with ethics so we can win at all costs. Like your point isn’t invalid but what’s the point of restating something akin to the trolley problem but this time, as if the answer is obvious.

Re: The changing goalposts of AGI and timelines

#80
'.. if a value-aligned, safety-conscious project comes close to building AGI before we do, we commit to stop competing with and start assisting this project. '

Which such project is that, though? And would it accept OpenAI's assistance?

AGI, having access to our world, is precarious as alignment with humans is never guaranteed. Having a buffering medium, aka a simulation environment where AI operates might be a better in-between solution.

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