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War prediction markets are a national-security threat

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Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#71

Post by AnimalMuppet »

brandall10 wrote: post #30
andai wrote: post #24

> The day before, 150 users bet at least $1,000 that the United States would strike Iran within the next 24 hours Yeah, I heard the same thing at the same time from several friends. And I'm not talking top brass, so it must have been pretty obvious at that point.

There were definite geopolitical signals of an impending conflict - ie. warships moving into the region, Iran increasing oil exports just days before the attack. I guess what might be more interesting is how many people bet $1000 the day before that, and the day before that. That would be more helpful to determine what is noise from well-informed outsiders vs. insiders.

And what were the odds?

That is, if it's 20:1, say, then I can bet $1000 to win $20,000. I can do that several days in a row (if I've got that kind of money). If I think there's, say, a 25% chance that the US is going to attack, then I only have to be within four days.

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#73

Post by abustamam »

dastuer wrote: post #61
unyttigfjelltol wrote: post #55

Folks, the President announced the attack and rough date ten days in advance.[1] He did the same exact thing in 2025, with strikes beginning on the 61st day after a 60-day deadline.[2] This particular market wasn’t about the likelihood of a strike but the probability of radical success . It seems at least possible in the circumstances that the Iran Supreme leader chose his own fate, which was inherently predicable an…

The site you cite for [3] reads: "Khamenei, the leader of the great nation of Iran, the freedom seekers of the world and the Islamic nations, has joined the highest paradise and reached his long-cherished wish of martyrdom in the holy month of Ramadan," said an announcement aired on Iranian state television. Sounds to me like it was made up after the fact.

In Islam, a Muslim who dies in war is considered a martyr, and it's desirable to die in the month of Ramadan. In other words, it's something that most Muslims want to have happen, but it's not like something we want to make happen. Like I don't want to die right now, but if I were to die, may as well be during Ramadan.

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#74

Post by pstuart »

mullingitover wrote: post #67
thephyber wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The White House has admitted that Israel had actionable intelligence that several of the Iranian political leadership were having a physical meeting together and they decided to attack to decapitate the government. The US decided to attack Iranian capabilities preemptively to reduce the inevitable response to US military, embassies, and allies in the region.

It’s bad enough the politicians lied when they campaigned on no more wars in the Middle East, they don’t need to insult our intelligence with these moronic cover stories. If they didn’t want Israel dragging the US into wars they could’ve just placed a call to Iran to warn them.

We live in a post truth age, unfortunately. Many citizens are happy to only hew to the truth that they want, versus the "real" truth. (note the quotes -- truth is tricky).

There's a bitter irony in this issue -- toppling the regime in Iran would be a wonderful thing, but doing so via bombs is not the way. We have Afghanistan and Iraq as very dear lessons in how not to do it.

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#76

Post by abustamam »

_vertigo wrote: post #43
Uhhrrr wrote: post #3

Placing a bet based on insider national security information should be regarded as leaking. But the markets aren't the problem here.

You couldn’t design a better system for incentivizing leaks if you were trying. Hell, the CEO literally said as much. Not sure how you can conclude the markets aren’t the problem.

Yeah I had to reread that part... I was like, no way the CEO of Polymarket publicly said on record that it incentivizes leaks. Had to check to make sure I wasn't on the onion.

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#77

Post by metalcrow »

pinkmuffinere wrote: post #58
metalcrow wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not by much, plus the volume is much lower on prediction markets, so people with large pockets who happen to be in power and are capable of doing big moves like this would make more money on the oil futures.

I wonder if there's profit to be made by looking at the futures markets, figuring out the implied probability distribution of different events, and then buying prediction markets when there's a mis-match? There sure are many inexperienced players entering predictions markets, just waiting to be fleeced...

That's one of the intended uses of prediction markets! Although much like cryptocurrency arbitrage i assume the margins are small and will quickly be eaten by bigger fish.

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#78

Post by abustamam »

For whatever it's worth, Kalshi refused to pay out on the bet because Khomenei died, and they refuse to allow people to profit off of death so they returned everyone's bets.

https://xcancel.com/mansourtarek_/status/2029996077554815268

While I think this policy removes one avenue of incentivizing death of real people (many bets involving real people can probably be resolved by some sort of assassination attempt), I honestly think the whole concept of betting on real world events is ludicrous to begin with, including sports. It always incentivizes behavior that doesn't naturally occur (the trope of fixing horse races comes to mind).

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#79

Post by _menelaus »

thephyber wrote: post #66
pstuart wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except this wasn't driven by Oil. It was driven by Israel.

The White House has admitted that Israel had actionable intelligence that several of the Iranian political leadership were having a physical meeting together and they decided to attack to decapitate the government. The US decided to attack Iranian capabilities preemptively to reduce the inevitable response to US military, embassies, and allies in the region.

[flagged]

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#80

Post by xeromal »

abustamam wrote: post #78

For whatever it's worth, Kalshi refused to pay out on the bet because Khomenei died, and they refuse to allow people to profit off of death so they returned everyone's bets. https://xcancel.com/mansourtarek_/status/2029996077554815268 While I think this policy removes one avenue of incentivizing death of real people (many bets involving real people can probably be resolved by some sort of assassination attempt), I ho…

What is xcancel?
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