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Jensen Huang says Nvidia is pulling back from OpenAI and Anthropic

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Re: Jensen Huang says Nvidia is pulling back from OpenAI and Anthropic

#71

Post by chii »

zmgsabst wrote: post #53
chii wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The absolute value is irrelevant - it's the opportunity cost that determines this. It doesn't matter if the consumer market is 4T, if the AI market is 60T!

“I wouldn’t pick up $20 if there was $100 on the ground!” Most people would pick up both. These economic proclamations don’t seem to make sense, when applied to different contexts — which suggests what you’re saying might be folk wisdom rather than sound theory (and greatly over simplifying the problem). You’re also discounting ecosystem effects — gaming GPUs driving demand for datacenter and workstation GPUs as hobb…

> Most people would pick up both.

if you're within reach of both, then it's not a choice, and there's no opportunity cost in picking just one - you'd be taking both.

If not within reach of both but just one, and you picking one up means someone else might pick up the other, then which would you choose? The other is then by definition, the opportunity cost.

Re: Jensen Huang says Nvidia is pulling back from OpenAI and Anthropic

#72

Post by delaminator »

zmgsabst wrote: post #53
chii wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The absolute value is irrelevant - it's the opportunity cost that determines this. It doesn't matter if the consumer market is 4T, if the AI market is 60T!

“I wouldn’t pick up $20 if there was $100 on the ground!” Most people would pick up both. These economic proclamations don’t seem to make sense, when applied to different contexts — which suggests what you’re saying might be folk wisdom rather than sound theory (and greatly over simplifying the problem). You’re also discounting ecosystem effects — gaming GPUs driving demand for datacenter and workstation GPUs as hobb…

If you were carrying heavy shopping in both arms would you stop to pick up a quarter?

A dollar?

Re: Jensen Huang says Nvidia is pulling back from OpenAI and Anthropic

#73

Post by saaaaaam »

zmgsabst wrote: post #53
chii wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The absolute value is irrelevant - it's the opportunity cost that determines this. It doesn't matter if the consumer market is 4T, if the AI market is 60T!

“I wouldn’t pick up $20 if there was $100 on the ground!” Most people would pick up both. These economic proclamations don’t seem to make sense, when applied to different contexts — which suggests what you’re saying might be folk wisdom rather than sound theory (and greatly over simplifying the problem). You’re also discounting ecosystem effects — gaming GPUs driving demand for datacenter and workstation GPUs as hobb…

You’re standing on a traffic island in the middle of a busy road. The lights change allowing you to cross. On one side there is a $20 note, on the other there is a $100 note. Which side do you go to first?

Re: Jensen Huang says Nvidia is pulling back from OpenAI and Anthropic

#74

Post by _ache_ »

My bet is Nvidia is using massive AI ability to dictate its investments. And it logically predict that not much (more) investments are needed and it need time to become profitable.

That a signal that nobody should invest more in the IA big companies and now they MUST become profitable soon.

Re: Jensen Huang says Nvidia is pulling back from OpenAI and Anthropic

#75

Post by bluescrn »

bitfilped wrote: post #60
bigstrat2003 wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I were Nvidia, I would give more attention to consumer GPUs to hedge my bets. When (not if) this AI bubble pops, their AI customers will become worthless to them very quickly as they won't be buying more GPUs. And when that day comes, I would want to still have consumers to sell to, rather than have them all buying from AMD because I ignored them.

Consumer GPUs are too small of a slice of their revenue to matter to them anymore.

Gaming created Nvidia

And now Nvidia is destroying gaming

Re: Jensen Huang says Nvidia is pulling back from OpenAI and Anthropic

#76

Post by deafpolygon »

peyton wrote: post #65
lelanthran wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 5 billion doesn't look like much when OpenAI just raised $110b though. Just about all of the AI providers "raises" are a fraction of the reported "raise", like this one. They didn't "raise" $100b. They got commitments for $35b, with said commitments being dependent on meeting certain criteria. Every "raise of $FOO" I've seen in the past year or two has not resulted in them getting their hands on $FOO in cash to spe…

You might be surprised to learn that there isn’t even $100b of cash [1]. Some sort of commitment structure necessarily substitutes. [1]: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USDIVCA

I can hardly believe that this is legal. They’re basically committing money that doesn’t exist just yet.

Re: Jensen Huang says Nvidia is pulling back from OpenAI and Anthropic

#77

Post by m000 »

_ache_ wrote: post #74

My bet is Nvidia is using massive AI ability to dictate its investments. And it logically predict that not much (more) investments are needed and it need time to become profitable. That a signal that nobody should invest more in the IA big companies and now they MUST become profitable soon.

Or it predicted that they will crash, so they'd better be out before everyone else realizes.

Re: Jensen Huang says Nvidia is pulling back from OpenAI and Anthropic

#78

Post by TiredOfLife »

tl2do wrote: post #4

Instead of pouring more money into OpenAI and Anthropic, Nvidia should invest more in expanding production capacity for the RTX 5000 series and future generations. High-end consumer GPU availability is still constrained, especially for the RTX 5090, and street prices remain elevated. Nvidia should come back to the consumer side.

Fabs are expensive, take decades to make and most important are very hard.

Re: Jensen Huang says Nvidia is pulling back from OpenAI and Anthropic

#79

Post by lelanthran »

deafpolygon wrote: post #76
peyton wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You might be surprised to learn that there isn’t even $100b of cash [1]. Some sort of commitment structure necessarily substitutes. [1]: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USDIVCA

I can hardly believe that this is legal. They’re basically committing money that doesn’t exist just yet.

> I can hardly believe that this is legal. They’re basically committing money that doesn’t exist just yet.

What do you mean "just yet" :-)

I don't really know how likely it is that the money being committed will actually exist when the time comes (Softbank's commitment didn't exist, they had to sell off assets and rope in other investors to meet their commitments).

Maybe it is very likely to exist, but, really, who knows?

IOW, your statement would be equally true by ending the sentence at the word "exist".

Re: Jensen Huang says Nvidia is pulling back from OpenAI and Anthropic

#80

Post by SkyMarshal »

glimshe wrote: post #58
adventured wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These days Nvidia has more money than it knows what to do with. They could certainly push $5b+ into each company annually and never miss it. They're tracking toward an astounding $200b in operating income (maybe over the next four quarters if the music doesn't suddenly stop).

They could buy back stock or, God forbid, pay good old dividends to investors instead of throwing money away.

Why would paying dividends not be like throwing money away for Nvidia, considering the alternative is to reinvest it into Nvidia's R&D, hiring & training, etc. Investors are already happily making money on NVDA stock appreciation, so what more would they gain from paying dividends?
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