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Global Intelligence Crisis

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Re: Global Intelligence Crisis

#71

Post by lm28469 »

vmg12 wrote: post #19

In other words, switching costs go to 0, margins collapse. Middle men and people with products that aren't differentiated get hit hardest. A human can't search 10 apps for the best rates / lowest fees but an agent can. Thinking ahead 100 years from now, companies like doordash and uber eats don't exist and are instead protocols agents use to bid for items their user asks for and price discovery happens in real time.

Go to a supermarket, witness that dozens of brands sell the same things at wildly different prices, they still all make a profit, same for most services, you have comparator for subscriptions, mortgage rates, &c.

And a human can 100% search 10 apps and use his brain to do basic maths, that's what we've been doing until now. Sometimes I wonder if ai shills live in a parallel universe because it truly feels like they're living a completely different life than the vast majority of people...

Re: Global Intelligence Crisis

#72

Post by drivebyhooting »

keithwhor wrote: post #46

My guess is that intelligence gets commodified to the point where LLMs and diffusion models are sold on chips and we seamlessly integrate them into the HW + SW stack. Then they’re just another abstraction; we talk to our computers to get things built. At essentially zero cost, truly too cheap to meter. In parallel there’s an explosion of creative output; Marvel movies turn around in 1 year instead of 4, solely blocke…

I get the optimism and excitement about space exploration. But that is a huge leap from the more ordinary and dystopia step you described:

The economy becomes a hedonistic mill of entertainment - where most people will only be passive consumers.

Re: Global Intelligence Crisis

#73

Post by Terr_ »

Ancalagon wrote: post #51
vmg12 wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> mysteryBargainBar[.]com for a $1 savings The AI could also research which stores are reputable. > People still /are/ scared to buy things from Amazon for things that go on or in their body. Sure, there are also people scared of flying in airplanes, those must be a dud too going by your logic.

Yes from all those reputable AI reviews

"Reputable" + Stochastic LLMs + Profit motive = A vast sea of poisonously false data and prompt injection attacks

Re: Global Intelligence Crisis

#74

Post by lm28469 »

keithwhor wrote: post #46

My guess is that intelligence gets commodified to the point where LLMs and diffusion models are sold on chips and we seamlessly integrate them into the HW + SW stack. Then they’re just another abstraction; we talk to our computers to get things built. At essentially zero cost, truly too cheap to meter. In parallel there’s an explosion of creative output; Marvel movies turn around in 1 year instead of 4, solely blocke…

> an explosion of creative output; Marvel movies turn around in 1 year instead of 4

Man if this is why we have to give 7 trillion to Altman fucking kill me already. Who's looking forward any of what you described?

Re: Global Intelligence Crisis

#75

Post by jstummbillig »

SirensOfTitan wrote: post #60
jstummbillig wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You're assuming that the gains from productivity improvements distribute themselves broadly No, I am assuming the opposite. I agree: We do need political intervention.

Right. So then when is the best time for labor to act to ensure those mechanisms are put in place? Before or after AI has eliminated its leverage? Like I totally realize we're agreed in some sense, but some form of socialism now in the US seems politically untenable, and as soon as AI actually starts making service labor obsolete, we lose our leverage. How do we do something about it?

How do you mean "eliminating the leverage"? White collar jobs go first, robots are right behind. I am relatively certain everyone will be scared shitless of where this is potentially going fairly soon.

The leverage will simply come from existing and being in the same group as roughly ~everyone on the planet.

Re: Global Intelligence Crisis

#77

Post by ilaksh »

keithwhor wrote: post #46

My guess is that intelligence gets commodified to the point where LLMs and diffusion models are sold on chips and we seamlessly integrate them into the HW + SW stack. Then they’re just another abstraction; we talk to our computers to get things built. At essentially zero cost, truly too cheap to meter. In parallel there’s an explosion of creative output; Marvel movies turn around in 1 year instead of 4, solely blocke…

This is really hopeful and I agree with a lot of the prediction. The problem is that the number of humans needed to produce video games and movies etc. will be 10 or 100 times less.

And since human attention can only spread out over so many different entertainment items, there will not be nearly enough opportunities for all of the humans. Even if many convert to AI and robotics enhanced entrepreneurship.

I actually think that this can work out if we just assume humans have some value and right to live, identify the actual humans, track resources a bit better, and make sure enough robots are employed to maintaining key resources for humans like food

But that only can happen if decision makers actually agree that all humans have value and are willing to figure out how to make that assumption globally and fairly.

Re: Global Intelligence Crisis

#78

Post by lijok »

krackers wrote: post #49
jahsome wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> No one price matches for protein bars because it's a commodity item with minimal price differences (and people often have a preferred brand anyway), but they probably do for $2k laptop. This is the most "silicon valley" statement I've ever read on this website. Perhaps I'm just being obtuse and misunderstanding, but the assertion people don't price match groceries is so, so wrong. Many, many, many people have no ch…

>the assertion people don't price match groceries is so, so wrong. Many, many, many people have no choice I guess I didn't quite say my point clearly, the time and physical cost to get to a grocery store puts up barriers against perfect price matching. You likely are not going to go out of your way to visit a grocery store for just a single item. And I don't think online delivery will change anything here because shi…

> I guess I didn't quite say my point clearly, the time and physical cost to get to a grocery store puts up barriers against perfect price matching. You likely are not going to go out of your way to visit a grocery store for just a single item.

I think you’re a bit out of touch with the common man. People do this constantly, some to a comical degree, going so far as to make two loops on their shopping trip to return groceries they found cheaper at the next store.

Re: Global Intelligence Crisis

#79

Post by lm28469 »

amelius wrote: post #24

It's quite clear that AGI will require a hard economic reboot. Say goodbye to capitalism. This is also why AI companies are not tackling robotics yet. Because doing so will make it painfully clear what is about to happen.

What's not clear at all is if agi will actually be reached any time soon

Re: Global Intelligence Crisis

#80

Post by botusaurus »

jjmarr wrote: post #12
krackers wrote: post #8

Fun read but >Humans don’t really have the time to price-match across five competing platforms before buying a box of protein bars No one [^1] price matches for protein bars because it's a commodity item with minimal price differences (and people often have a preferred brand anyway), but they probably do for $2k laptop. >once AI agents equipped with MLS access The data is the moat here, I'm sure even today individual…

> > once AI agents equipped with MLS access > The data is the moat here, I'm sure even today individual consumers would be happy to have direct access to MLS to find properties and cut out the middleman. Prior to agentic AI, businesses could price discriminate between human access and machine access to a database. Browser automation tools let humans arbitrage between the two but require investment in developers. Now…

companies can also have a Claude on the receiving end to sniff if its a poor or rich Claude browsing
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