Russia's economy has entered the death zone • Hacker News Board

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#71

Post by wiseowise » Tue, Feb 17, 2026, 8:06 PM UTC

mdavid626 wrote: post #68

konart wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Say I produce furniture. I borrow from you. I now have debt. I sell furniture. Now I can pay you back some part of it (up to 100%). You (and other parties) see that I'm quite good at what I do and my products sells. I now can borrow from you and other parties again to produce more (and possibly diversify my business). I sell more, I open new businesses etc. I pay you and other parties back. And borrow again. I can an…

I didn’t say debt is bad in general. I say the current amount of debt and the promise of we have unlimited money is what’s wrong.

> we

Of course мы do, tovarisch.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#72

Post by konart » Tue, Feb 17, 2026, 8:06 PM UTC

mdavid626 wrote: post #68

konart wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Say I produce furniture. I borrow from you. I now have debt. I sell furniture. Now I can pay you back some part of it (up to 100%). You (and other parties) see that I'm quite good at what I do and my products sells. I now can borrow from you and other parties again to produce more (and possibly diversify my business). I sell more, I open new businesses etc. I pay you and other parties back. And borrow again. I can an…

I didn’t say debt is bad in general. I say the current amount of debt and the promise of we have unlimited money is what’s wrong.

>I say the current amount of debt and the promise of we have unlimited money is what’s wrong.

What does this have to do with "unlimited money"? USD is just a "contract".

A trillion in debt is not the sum of fiat paper the US owes anybody.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#73

Post by simonh » Tue, Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM UTC

tonymet wrote: post #7

Déjà vu … Since Crimea Invasion Russia’s Economy Is On the Brink of Collapse" – CNN Business, December 2014. "The End of the Putin Era? Russia’s Economy Is Tanking" – Newsweek, December 2014. "Russia Heading for Economic 'Colossal Collapse'" – BBC News (quoting Alexei Kudrin), December 2014. "How the Oil Price Collapse Could Topple Putin" – The Guardian, 2015. "Russia’s Economy Is a Mess" – The Atlantic, February 201…

All true, but I remember several articles in the Economist in the first year warning that no collapse was imminent, and basically that the Russian central bank had plenty of options to recalibrate the economy in the medium term. They made comparisons with other countries that have been subject to similar, or even much more severe sanctions.

Overall I think they’ve been the best source of analysis on this I’ve found. They were explaining what CDOs and such were, and why they were a systemic risk years before the collapse in 2008.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#74

Post by mdavid626 » Tue, Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM UTC

nosianu wrote: post #33

mdavid626 wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So you say, that current debt levels are good?

I'm not sure why you ask me what I say. I left it as a written comment for you to peruse at any time and as many times as you want to see what I'm saying.

Yeah, my bad, the question might be for some other comment.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#75

Post by squidbeak » Tue, Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM UTC

mdavid626 wrote: post #61

squidbeak wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia could end the war today if it wanted to.

Same for the West. If they do, they loose. That sets their position in the world. Who’d fear them? They can’t even win over a country which is much smaller and weaker than they are.

How can the West end the war today?

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#76

Post by wiseowise » Tue, Feb 17, 2026, 8:08 PM UTC

mdavid626 wrote: post #54

wiseowise wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Western news resources aren’t controlled by government, unlike Russia. So they have incentive to post what generates clicks, not necessarily what reflects reality.

Yes, they are controlled by money.

Employing people and reporting costs money, news at 11.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#77

Post by nradov » Tue, Feb 17, 2026, 8:14 PM UTC

shevy-java wrote: post #63

zh3 wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a strong supporter of Ukraine, I would say ultimately wars are won or lost by economic forces (the side that can't afford it any more loses). That's how the USSR lost the Cold War, and all I can hope is that all of Europe really has your back in this one.

But that is historically not quite true. World War 2 was not won due to the economy. And while it is true that the USSR "lost" the Cold War, they actually spent too much and entered a recurring debt from which they could no longer get out. There was no direct war here, which is different to e. g. world war 2 (at the least USA versus Germany). USSR and USA only fought some proxy wars.

World War 2 was won due to the economy. Only the Allied side had the economic strength to replace all of their material war losses and more. In some categories of munitions the USA out produced Japan by a factor of >1000. US Navy gunners could afford to fill the sky with steel because they had unlimited supplies. The enemy had to count every shot.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#78

Post by nradov » Tue, Feb 17, 2026, 8:15 PM UTC

mdavid626 wrote: post #61

squidbeak wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia could end the war today if it wanted to.

Same for the West. If they do, they loose. That sets their position in the world. Who’d fear them? They can’t even win over a country which is much smaller and weaker than they are.

Huh? Which "West" are you referring to? No NATO member state has invaded any Russian sovereign territory.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#79

Post by XorNot » Tue, Feb 17, 2026, 8:15 PM UTC

kaivi wrote: post #38

dyauspitr wrote: post #19

How does Russia have $73 billion dollars worth of debt. Who is buying Russian treasuries? Also how did the GDP grow by 1% in 2025, is that a function of the internal Defence spending activity?

> how did the GDP grow by 1% in 2025 Build tanks -> increase GDP Send those tanks to burn with men inside -> increase GDP per capita

It's the classic issue of any metric: there are assumptions behind it's usefulness.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#80

Post by simonh » Tue, Feb 17, 2026, 8:18 PM UTC

mdavid626 wrote: post #4

What is Europe/USA fueled by? Debt. The Bubble. Is that sustainable? I don’t think so. What’s the point of the article? To prove the west’s superiority?

There’s a decent article in the Economist right now warning of Brazilification in the west. A particular kind of debt fuelled economic death spiral on which Brazil is unfortunately a pioneer.